Pistachio

Market Insights


November 2023

Pistachios:

The 2023/24 pistachio crop is officially the largest in history, reaching 1.49 billion pounds by the end of October, surpassing the INC’s forecast of 1.1 billion pounds by 35%. This year’s crop is also 69% higher (~605 million pounds) than last year’s crop of 884.1 million pounds. This has resulted in the lowest pistachio prices in over 15 years, providing insights into potential future trends in the pistachio market. 

Shipments for the month of October were very strong reaching 120.3 million pounds, a 41% increase compared to the same period last year. Exports were particularly strong at 99 million pounds, up by 49% from last October, while domestic shipments were 21.2 million pounds, up by 13%. Year-to-date shipments are now up 20% compared to last year. 

While pricing remains attractive and stable, the record crop size is expected to test both consumer demand and buyer infrastructure as the market adjusts to the substantial increase in supply. It’s also worth mentioning that despite increased shipments, there is 69% additional fresh crop inventory in circulation compared to last year, which could lead to future lower prices. 

Bullish Trends

  • Low opening price levels resulted in large sales for the industry.
  • Consumer preferences for pistachios over other nuts.
  • Shipments are up 20% year-over-year.

Bearish Trends

  • Increased shipments are not keeping pace with increased inventory.
  • Competition from other origins also harvesting larger crops.
  • New crop is expected to reach record high of 1.5 billion pounds.
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