Auctions in Tanzania continued throughout November and at the time of writing this update, forecast stands at 55% sold position and there’s still another half of the crop to be traded. India had a lower-than-anticipated Diwali demand, hence we may see this market somewhat inactive with spot buying in Tanzania, but they will surely continue to cover their needs as high quality in-shell is a perfect match for local consumption needs.
It remains too early to make a statement on whether how good, bad, or ugly the 2024 NH crops will come out. One noticeable event is the ongoing heavy showers in West Africa, which is not common for this time of the year. This is something we will closely monitor during the next several months.
Availability of good quality in-shell continues to be low for the Asian processors, that’s why we have not seen many changes in the Kernel markets.
Demand really picked in EU, which is (according to the latest statistics) up 7% versus last year at the same time. Driven by promotions across all retailers and regions, and with the main celebration season around the corner, growth will mostly likely hit double digits. With that said, China and the Middle East continues to absorb decent interest as well. On the other hand, first signs of U.S. recovery is being noticed with import figures starting to catch up against a very slow first half of the year.
De-stocking continued during November and this made spot pricing absurdly high with significant premiums versus origin prices. This trend was set already in the last few months and knowingly demand during the end of Q4 is always at its peak. This looks like it hasn’t been a good decision by the industry to do.
Unchanged from last month, cashew prices remain favorable, which clarifies the high demand from retailers globally to cover as far as possible into FY24 and even early FY25. The challenge remains availability as the next NH crops (accounting for 85%+ of global crops) is not available before March of 2024 for production and before May of 2024 in destination markets. With in-shell floor pricing unclear as of today, and many further challenges for the processor from cost of production, high interest rates, etc., it looks unlikely that Kernel prices can soften much further in near terms.
- Destination stocks remain extraordinary tight, and there’s hardly any main grades available.
- Consumption really picked up in several mature markets.
- Weather in West Africa can change sentiment anytime - one factor to closely watch.
- Tanzania’s impact to global pricing is neglectable thus far.
- India had a fairly disappointing festive season, and is lacking on last years consumption.
- Will the consumption continue as retailers discontinue their heavy promotions like in recent months?