Market Insights

May 2023


The ACP reported crop receipts for the 2022 crop year remain unchanged at 884,139,540 pounds. When combined with the record 2021 carry-out, the total supply for the 2022 crop year is estimated to be approximately 1,176,356,358 pounds.

The INC projects the incoming 2023 global crop to be 2.25 billion pounds, representing an increase of about 37% compared to the current crop year. The US crop is projected to reach 1.3 billion pounds (+47%), Iran’s crop is projected to be 440 million pounds (+89%), and Turkey is expected to experience a small decline at 420 million pounds (-5%).

Shipments in April remained strong at 82,579,400 pounds, a 22% increase compared to April of the previous year. Year-to-date shipments reached 678,586,783 pounds, showing a 10% increase compared to the previous year. Exports continue to be the driving force, with a year-to-date increase of 18.5%, while domestic shipments are down 5.6% year-to-date compared to the previous year. The expectation is for this positive trend to continue, resulting in the lowest carry-out since 2019.

In-shell pricing remains firm as inventory from the 2022 crop is scarce. There is some uncertainty about how the floods in the Tulare basin will affect the 2023 crop, however, there is an overall expectation of larger 2023 crops from both the US and Iran.

Bullish Trends

  • Year-to-date shipments are up 10% and projected to remain strong through the season, suggesting we are on track for a significantly reduced carry-out.
  • There is consistent demand for pistachios from export markets and tight supplies on current crop from both the US and Iran.
  • Total supply for the 2022 California crop year is down 10.3%, including carry-in and adjustments.

Bearish Trends

  • Consumer spending power is a concern, and high-priced pistachios could be more affected by this factor.
  • Overall global supply is expected to be larger in the upcoming crop year, with the US projected to have a crop that is 47% higher than the current crop.
  • The price of competing nuts remains low compared to pistachios, which may impact market dynamics.
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