Nuts

Market Insights


March 2023

Pistachio

The Administrative Committee for Pistachios (ACP) released the “February shipment report” on March 15th. 2022 crop receipts have finalized at 884 million pounds. Total supply for the 2022 crop year is 1.24 billion pounds, down 14% from last year’s total supply of 1.45 billion pounds. Estimated marketable inventory as of February 28th was 624 million pounds. This is down significantly versus the 859 million pounds of Estimated Marketable Inventory at the end of last Febuary, a decrease of over 27%.

The strong shipment trend for pistachios continued in February with record shipments for the month of 66.9 million pounds, up 9.5% versus February 2021. Year-to-date shipments currently stand at 432 million pounds, up 3% versus last year’s shipments of 419 million pounds as of the end of Febuary. Domestic shipments are down 6% year-to-date while export shipments are up 7% year-to-date.

Export shipments are led by strong increases in the Middle East & Africa, with this region at 56 million pounds year-to-date versus 44 million pounds year-to-date last year, up 7%. This is likely due to local crop substitution as Iran’s crop was significantly lower this year due to frost. Inshell pricing continues to remain firm as remaining availability from 2022 crop is extremely limited.

All eyes will soon point to 2023 crop potential, with the bloom period beginning in the coming weeks. Winter conditions in California were previously thought to favorable, with good chill hours and ample water supplies this year. However, recent flooding in the Tulare Lake basis is cause for concern as many pistachio trees are currently under water.

Bullish Trends

  • Total supply for the 2022 CA crop year is down 14%.
  • With shipments up 3% YTD and supply down, we are on track for a significantly reduced carry out.
  • There is consistent demand of Pistachios from export markets as supplies from both US and Iran are tight.

Bearish Trends

  • Overall global supply is expected to be larger this upcoming crop year, with both US and Iran likely to recover and produce larger crops.
  • The price of competing nuts remains a great value versus pistachios.
  • Global economic uncertainty remains, potentially leading to reduced demand.
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