Nuts

Market Insights


March 2023

Walnuts

The CWB reported the final crop receipts for the 2022 crop year to be 747,870 tons. This number has historically been adjusted up by end June and we expect the final crop number to be closer to the 760,000 tons we have been projecting. Adding in the record 2021 crop carry out, this would give us a total supply of ~895,000 tons for the 2022 crop year. This is a record total supply for the CA Walnut Industry and 8% larger than the 827,824 tons of total supply last year.

Shipments in February performed closer to expectations 2.1 % vs last year), following an above average January that was 26% higher than last year. This brings the YTD shipments to 3.0% ahead of last year. However, given the larger total supply, the unshipped inventory currently stands ~ 12.7% higher than last year.

Commitments in February are down 3% vs last year and new sales FTM were down 21% vs last February. The sold percentage of total supply stands at 65.4%65.4%, down 4.7% vs last Feb’s sold percentage of 70.1% on total supply. The is an extremely problematic situation for the industry to be in, with a record total supply on hand and sol d percentage lagging 5% behind last year.

Sale and shipments need to improve significantly in the coming months if we are to finish with a manageable carry out.

Bullish Trends

  • The USDA recently closed a very large bid, which will help to ease the supply concerns
  • At low prices, shipments are improving. Shipments are now up
    3 YoY
  • Walnuts remain the best value when compared to competing nuts

Bearish Trends

  • CA has a record total supply this year
  • Sold percentage of total supply is 5% lower than this time last year
  • Other origins continue to increase in production as well, with Chile beginning harvest on larger crop this month
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