For many, last month was “Dry January,” which included California weather. The state started the month at 110% of the normal snowpack, but by January 31st, the snowpack had fallen to 67%. February is trying to make up for that. We had two significant rain and snowstorms in the northern part of the state, which delivered record amounts of precipitation. The snowpack has also been impacted, and as of today’s writing, it has improved to 75% of normal. While not ideal, it is improving, and another storm is heading our way by Thursday or Friday. The low that was sitting off the coast has moved out, and the storm doors are open. Another storm is expected next week as well, ushering in the beginning of the Almond Bloom. Stay tuned, as all eyes will be on bloom weather over the next two to three weeks, as weather affects the bloom and pollination up and down the state.

Since the last position report released for December on January 9, 2025, the market has been somewhat subdued. Growers have not been too ready to sell, and buyers have not been ready to buy. December crop receipts were 233.63 million pounds, down a significant 35.3% from last year’s 360.95 million pounds. For the most part, this has put the brakes on for many, leading most to believe the crop will not reach the expected 2.8 billion-pound estimate. At the moment, 2.576 billion pounds have been received. With all the hullers and shellers closed, it is difficult to imagine there being much left in the system. Where it ends up is still left to the imagination, but all indications suggest a number closer to 2.7 billion pounds than 2.8 billion pounds. 

Market Sentiment:

This has led to rising prices for almonds over the last three months. Many buyers feel that prices have risen too high, too fast. Cautious growers feel that the market has not been kind to almond growers for several years, creating unsustainable prices, which has brought us to where we are today: diminishing production and supply. The reality and truth lie somewhere in the middle. Supply has exceeded demand for several years, leading to lower prices. Supply is now more in line with demand, bringing prices up to a more sustainable level for growers. But this may not be over. Bearing acreage is on the decline. Reporting agents lag behind, as it is difficult to evaluate an abandoned orchard. Growers pulling orchards are also behind, as it takes money to do so. Those abandoned orchards are just sitting there in limbo but may still be counted as bearing acreage, even though they are not being harvested at all. Orders at nurseries are certainly down, which is a true indicator of future new plantings and replacements.

Market Conditions:

December shipments were 233 million pounds meeting industry expectations. This keeps the industry on track to match last year’s shipments. In reality, we may need to slow down further if the supply falls short of last year. Domestic shipments are virtually flat to last year at this time. Export shipments are also flat to last year at this time, so from the perspective of the growers and industry, we are where we want to be based on everything we know today. 

Sales & Commitments: Total new sales for December were down 16.8% at 182.5 million lbs., from 219.4 million lbs. a year ago. Both domestic and export sales shared in the decline. This is a result of offers being harder to find in December as growers not wanting to get too far out before a good look at the bloom. Commitments for the 2024 crop have slipped to 561 million lbs., which is down 12% vs the 637 million lbs. from last year Again, this is a result of a lack of offers from growers who are cautiously waiting, and frankly, many buyers are holding off on purchasing, following more of a hand-to-mouth strategy in hopes of capturing a buying opportunity should a weakness occur following the bloom. Uncommitted inventory sits at 1.321 billion lbs., up 9.9% vs last year’s 1.202 billion lbs. As crop receipts fall off, so will uncommitted inventories in the months ahead. 

The bloom is at hand now, and the next couple of weeks will be of great interest to everyone.  

Upcoming Industry Milestones:

• Position Report:  February 12, 2025

Bullish Trends:

• Shipments thus far are right on target for where the industry wants to be at this point of the crop year. 
• Current market levels are much better than the industry has seen in over three years as supply has come into line with demand. 
• Rain and cold weather is forecasted for next week leading into the almond bloom. All eyes will be on conditions up and down the state. 

Bearish Trends:

• With commitments lagging behind and uncommitted inventory exceeding last year, it is not the position the industry wants to be in, should crop receipts suddenly rise and the bloom comes through strong. 
• Monthly shipments are fluid and there may be dramatic declines if the proposed tariffs end up coming into play.  China is certainly a factor whether we like it or not. 
• Bloom weather has long been something for growers to point to, but in reality the crop is vast and no matter the weather, we will have a crop.