Global Nuts Market & Crop Update

Almonds

If last month was “Dry January,” then this month has been “Wet February”. After ending January at only 67% to normal. The state started the New Year at 110% of the normal snowpack after a great December, but by January 31st, the snowpack had fallen to 67%. Fast forward to today, after the last three weeks of several storms, the snowpack is estimated to be close to 100% to normal. It should be noted that during this time, the beginning of the bloom was impacted. Strong rain and wind would have had some effect to blooms on the tree possibly getting knocked off. The colder weather also slowed the bloom down in different areas of the growing regions. Weather has returned more to normal in the last five days, however, and temperatures are averaging above 60 degrees in most areas and even higher temperatures are expected in the high 60’s. Perfect for bee flight. That brings up another subject that most have heard about by now. 

It has been reported this season, bee colony loss has been unprecedented this year, with most of the losses being felt for beekeepers through winter for their hives while in cold storage in N/S Dakota and Florida. Many beekeepers have acknowledged the low strength, most pointing to high varroa mite infestation and subsequently vectored diseases are the cause. Most miticides that have traditionally been used are no longer effective as the mites have developed resistance. As a result, many may have to reduce hive count by as much as 5% due to the heavy losses. Alternatives to combating the varroa mite infestation are being implemented, but it may be too late for this year’s as the bloom moves forward.  

Market Update: 
The Almond Board of California released the January positioning report mid-February. Most glaring were crop receipts dropping off to 88.4 million pounds received in January down from last year’s 163 million pounds. This all points to the reality that with 2.66 billion pounds received to date that it is more than likely the crop may have a hard time now to reach the objective estimate of 2.8 billion pounds, and more likely will be closer to 2.7 billion pounds. 

Shipments:
January shipments were a strong 228.6 million pounds exceeding industry expectations. This keeps the industry on track, matching last year’s shipments to date. However, if the crop does in fact fall short of the objective estimate, the industry will have to slow down sales and shipments as we will ultimately have less of a supply than we did last year given that we had only a 500 million pound carryout this year, versus last year’s 800 million pound carryout. If we thought the transition from last years crop to new crop was tight last year, it may be much tighter this year than we have seen in many years.

Domestic shipments were 61.65 million lbs. down -2.0% to a year ago.  Expectations are for shipments to remain in this range throughout the remainder of the crop year. Export shipments were at 167 million lbs. also down, - 3.5% vs last year’s 173 million lbs. While export shipments are all over the board, it is evident that many are purchasing hand to mouth, most are uncovered, inventories are low and as it becomes more evident that a buying opportunity may not manifest itself this year, it may be time to cover their remaining needs for the crop year before it becomes difficult to cover any later. 

Sales & Commitments: Sales for the month of January were surprisingly strong with 239 million pounds sold. This is up a modest 1.3% vs last year. This may be a signal that buyers are now buying and sellers are selling. An obvious statement, but a distinction that the market wants to move forward understanding the crop size. In the next few days or weeks, things may heat up even more as the bloom is put to bed. With Commitments at 571.5 million lbs. down -10%, this also insures interest to continue to sell into the remaining third and fourth quarter of this crop year. 

Finally with Uncommitted inventory sitting at 1.169 billion lbs. slightly above the 1.126 billion lbs. this same time last year, the two have come almost even, and with crop receipts slowing down further, it will truly be a tough transition into new crop this fall.

Cashews

• For Cashew inshells, new crop in west Africa looks good and early flows have started with good quality. ​
• Due to thin inshell pipeline, the prices continue to remain firm and origin activity remains hot​.​
• Ivory coast has increased the minimum buying price this year to 425 FCFA/Kg from 275 FCFA/Kg but the competition to cover the crop still remains very high with no signs of cooling down sooner​.
• Crop flows in Asia have also started and some initial flows were reported in Cambodia. Vietnam and India crop flows are slower and are delayed as compared to a normal season.​
• Markets were bit more active in Europe with some tenders floating for conventional and organic​.
• Outside of tender activity, there is very less interest on kernels being discussed as spot inventory in Europe looks decent​.
• US & Middle East continue to nibble on kernel coverage for short term with less inquiries for far forwards​.
• Asian markets like Japan/Korea have started their regular coverage for season, while China’s pace is slower as compared to last year for coverage.

Hazelnuts

Supply

• After months of firmness, we have seen some softening in the market during February. Supply is expected to exceed the demand, despite some reduction in crop expectation due to incest activity leading to the inferior crop quality.​
• The largest Buyer seems to have covered most of its season requirement. TMO releasing around 22K of its stocks too has given the much-required respite in prices.​
• Weather during February has been conducive to crop growth – with the Black sea region witnessing snowfall and cold climate during most of the month. We expect a subjective report in the next couple of weeks – that can give the first indications on the upcoming crop size and quality​.
• Prices for the benchmark 11-13 kernels have come off from 280 TL now to 260-275 TL. Combining with the depreciation of the TL against the USD, the prices have effectively come off around 5% from its peak

Demand

• Overall demand looks steady. We have witnessed some tender volumes drop against last season, but most larger buyers are reporting stable demand despite prices of Cocoa and sugar climbing up.​
  
• The current season exports are better than previous year by almost 7-8%, but predominantly due to the largest buyer being more active.
  
• Most large confectionery buyers have covered their requirements for the season. We expect retail, private label and small & medium size confectionery customers to keep buying, supporting the market.
• Local demand is lagging against previous years as inflation continues to be high.
  

Our View:

• We believe the season prices have peaked in Jan/Feb, and now will continue a bearish sentiment, unless we see any concerns on the next crop cycle due to weather or insect activity. ​
  
• The downside looks limited though, as the prices approach TMO sourcing levels.​grades and low-quality grades.​
  
• Overall long-term supply remains adequate, and demand indicators are weak. ​
  
• Weather has generally been conducive for the upcoming season crop. 
  

Peanuts

There are very few changes in the peanut market vs our report last month. Demand is sluggish, supplies are sufficient, and growers are evaluating their options for the upcoming planting season.​​

Crop year to date (August ‘24 – January ‘25), peanut usage by U.S. manufacturers is down 1.1% vs the same time last year. Exports of U.S. peanuts are down 17.8% on a crop year to date basis. USDA is still predicting that carryout stocks from the ‘24 crop will be around 811k tons. However, most believe demand projections are too high and anticipate the final carryout to be more in the range of +/- 950k tons. This is still a manageable quantity from an industry perspective.​

Peanut acreage in the U.S. is expected to be up in 2025 vs prior year...maybe in the range of +5%...maybe more.  Cotton prices remain very weak, and peanuts seem to offer the best return for the growers. Lack of proper crop rotation is a concern, as this could negatively impact the yield and quality of the crop.​

Prices for current crop edible kernels are a bit weaker than last report. APSA spec, negative aflatoxin runner splits can be found in the upper $0.50’s, with redskin mediums and jumbos quoted anywhere from $0.60 - $0.64.  Blanched jumbos, when offered, are still priced in the upper $0.70’s. The market for ‘25 crop redskin kernels seems to be in the range of $0.55 - $0.58, depending on grade and spec. Blanched jumbos are quoted in the low $0.70’s, and blanched splits in the upper $0.60’s.​

Macadamias

The global macadamia market is experiencing steady growth, driven by increasing consumer demand for healthy snacks and plant-based foods. By 2025, the market is projected to reach USD 1.79 billion, largely due to rising demand from Asia-Pacific and North America. Kernel prices have remained stable recently due to low inventory levels and robust demand across key markets.

In 2024, China was actively sourcing nut-in-shell macadamias from major producers like Australia, South Africa, and Kenya. In 2025, with the Chinese New Year occurring nearly a month later than in 2024, and China entering the year with good inventory levels, thanks to significant imports and a successful domestic harvest in Q4. As a result, China appears well-stocked for the next 2-3 months and is not urgently seeking new inshell supplies. Given China’s significant role as a global macadamia importer, their demand patterns over the coming months could significantly influence market prices in coming months.

• South Africa: South Africa anticipates a 10% increase in its 2025 macadamia crop compared to the previous year, with harvesting commencing in March/April. This growth is attributed to favorable flowering and the maturation of newer orchards. However, exporters are exercising caution due to relatively softer demand from China and uncertainties surrounding the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). With AGOA providing duty-free access to the U.S. market, its potential lapse could impose tariffs on kernel exports, increasing their cost. Demand for kernels continues to keep up, and hence carryover stocks are very low. The combination of increased production and low carryover stocks might lead to prices remain firm in the short term. 
  
• Australia: The 2025 Australian macadamia crop is expected to increase by 11.1% due to generally favorable growing conditions. However, the industry is monitoring Tropical Cyclone Alfred, which poses a threat to the Bundaberg region of Queensland, responsible for around half of Australia’s macadamia production. The impact of the cyclone will become clearer in March. The inshell market remains quiet due to uncertainty regarding Chinese demand and pricing, which are crucial since Australia exports 30-40% of its inshell macadamias to China, directly influencing farm gate prices for growers.​​ 
  
• Kenya: Following a meeting of key stakeholders, including the agriculture cabinet secretary and the Kenyan macadamia processors’ association (MACNUT), Kenya has decided to maintain its ban on NIS exports. Harvesting activities in Kenya are scheduled to resume on March 1st, marking an important milestone for the country’s macadamia industry. The Kenyan macadamia industry faced challenges in 2024 due to high farmgate prices driven by Chinese demand, which led to overall processing volumes and kernel exports. The government’s measures aim to stabilize the market and protect local processors from external competition​.​

Pistachios

Crop Receipts stand at 1.11 billion lbs and with a carry in of 185 million lbs from previous crop, gross inventory stands at 1.29 billion lbs. Shrinkage and other losses, results in an adjusted inventory of 1.15 billion lbs. In comparison with previous year, availability is down by -23%. Shelling Stock, closed shell remain in tight supply, in turn lowering the overall availability of kernels. 

Steady demand for domestic shipments with 22 million lbs shipped in Jan. Despite higher opening prices, overall domestic shipments, at 103 million lbs YTD basis, remained nearly consistent with previous years recording a change of -2.5% YoY. Export shipments in Jan slowed down further in Jan with 41 million lbs. One of the major export market - China, underperformed with -45.9% reduction YoY basis, driving down the total export shipments to 462 million lbs, which is a -24.7% reduction compared to previous year. Similar reduction is seen is Middle & N.Africa market while EU demand was at similar levels as last year. Available inventory is currently at 689 million lbs. ​