The first few days of November has passed and harvest continues in many areas of the state. With temperatures dropping down into the low 40’s at night, the crop that is on the ground is having a difficult time drying, which can result in high moisture by the time it goes through the hullers/shellers and reaches the processor. This can lead to mechanical drying or other methods that take additional time and money. Rain has touched down in California and may create even more high moisture issues for the crop still out there. 

Last week was quiet as buyers and sellers continue to assess the market conditions. With the crop as late as it is, processors are concerned about becoming oversold on specifications they may not be able to provide this year. Almond sizing is much larger than we have seen over the last three crop years. Smaller sizing 30/32 AOS is very difficult to find right now and, for the most part, little if anything is available from the carry-over. Flexibility in preferences is going to be important, at least for the time being, as most sellers will be selling 27/30 AOL, meaning sizes larger than 27/30 are most likely to fill these orders.  

Additionally, there is hesitancy to sell as many believe the crop will be shorter than the 2.60 billion pound estimate released by NASS. While the crop is late and skewing receipts to date, turn-out (yield) from the hullers/shellers has also been off for many growers. This has led the rest of the state to believe the crop may be off by several hundred million pounds. Only time will tell us what this crop size is and, as mentioned numerous times, the crop is late coming in and may be too early to speculate. 

This Friday, November 10, the Almond Board of CA will release the "October Position Report". It is forecasted to top September shipments of 217.7 million pounds. Expectations are for a minimum of 240 million pounds for the month. With another strong shipment month in the books, growers have not felt any pressure to sell new crop considering what the above findings have been thus far. Sentiment has certainly changed in the last few months due to the late harvest. With the hullers/shellers now running through December, it will be a few more months before we really have a better understanding of the crop size. 

Upcoming Industry Milestones

• Harvest Period: Harvest continues in the face of fall setting in, with more rain on the way not helping the situation at all. When almonds get wet like this, the key will be for constant movement of the almond piles to assist in drying. 
• Position Report: November 10, 2023

Bullish Trends

• The market has continued to firm over the last few weeks due to the late crop, poor yields, and quality issues. Market levels still remain very attractive compared to other tree nuts and historic market levels.
• With prior sales done in September, October shipments should also be strong with results available this week in the Almond Board’s position report.
• Demand is pent up, waiting for more offers and additional information on this year’s crop size. As more data is assessed, offers should be more forthcoming. Price will rise if demand comes in all at once.

Bearish Trends

• Demand is still in question while economic trends are sorted out worldwide. There are few offers and there has not been as much concluded business as would be expected for this time of the year. With global instability throughout key markets, much remains in question for Q1 and Q2.
• Once the industry has figured out the crop, there may be a push for new sales. Right now, buyers appear to be purchasing hand to mouth and sellers are willing to support, but once the “crop is in the barn”, pressure will mount to sell.
• With the crop late, California must continue to sell into this market, improving commitments in the coming months will be key to not falling behind in the shipment curve.