Global Nuts Market & Crop Update

Almonds

California weather brought a new meaning to “Dry January,”. The state started the month at 110% of the normal snowpack, but by January 31st, the snowpack had fallen to 67%. February is trying to make up for that. We had two significant rain and snowstorms in the northern part of the state, which delivered record amounts of precipitation. The snowpack has also been impacted, and as of today’s writing, it has improved to 75% of normal. While not ideal, it is improving, and another storm is heading our way by Thursday or Friday. The low that was sitting off the coast has moved out, and the storm doors are open. Another storm is expected next week as well, ushering in the beginning of the Almond Bloom. Stay tuned, as all eyes will be on bloom weather over the next two to three weeks, as weather affects the bloom and pollination up and down the state.

Since the last position report released for December on January 9, 2025, the market has been somewhat subdued. Growers have not been too ready to sell, and buyers have not been ready to buy. December crop receipts were 233.63 million pounds, down a significant 35.3% from last year’s 360.95 million pounds.  For the most part, this has put the brakes on for many, leading most to believe the crop will not reach the expected 2.8 billion-pound estimate. At the moment, 2.576 billion pounds have been received. With all the hullers and shellers closed, it is difficult to imagine there being much left in the system. Where it ends up is still left to the imagination, but all indications suggest a number closer to 2.7 billion pounds than 2.8 billion pounds. 

This has led to rising prices for almonds over the last three months. Many buyers feel that prices have risen too high, too fast. Cautious growers feel that the market has not been kind to almond growers for several years, creating unsustainable prices, which has brought us to where we are today: diminishing production and supply. The reality and truth lie somewhere in the middle. Supply has exceeded demand for several years, leading to lower prices. Supply is now more in line with demand, bringing prices up to a more sustainable level for growers. But this may not be over. Bearing acreage is on the decline. Reporting agents lag behind, as it is difficult to evaluate an abandoned orchard. Growers pulling orchards are also behind, as it takes money to do so. Those abandoned orchards are just sitting there in limbo but may still be counted as bearing acreage, even though they are not being harvested at all. Orders at nurseries are certainly down, which is a true indicator of future new plantings and replacements.​ 

December shipments were 233 million pounds meeting industry expectations. This keeps the industry on track to match last year’s shipments. In reality, we may need to slow down further if the supply falls short of last year. Domestic shipments are virtually flat to last year at this time. Export shipments are also flat to last year at this time, so from the perspective of the growers and industry, we are where we want to be based on everything we know today. 

Sales & Commitments: Total new sales for December were down 16.8% at 182.5 million lbs., from 219.4 million lbs. a year ago. Both domestic and export sales shared in the decline. This is a result of offers being harder to find in December as growers not wanting to get too far out before a good look at the bloom. Commitments for the 2024 crop have slipped to 561 million lbs., which is down 12% vs the 637 million lbs. from last year. Again, this is a result of a lack of offers from growers who are cautiously waiting, and frankly, many buyers are holding off on purchasing, following more of a hand-to-mouth strategy in hopes of capturing a buying opportunity should a weakness occur following the bloom. Uncommitted inventory sits at 1.321 billion lbs., up 9.9% vs last year’s 1.202 billion lbs. As crop receipts fall off, so will uncommitted inventories in the months ahead. 

While the bloom is at hand, we have started off rocky with a large atmospheric river hitting the state making up for all of January. This could not have happened at a worst time. Hopefully, it will subside in time for bloom to carry on.

Cashews

• Markets continue to remain quiet, and some action is expected in First half of Feb as the 2025 crop flow starts​.
• Inshell inventories at origins are thin but the prices have cooled down with influx of inshells coming from Tanzania​.
• New crop has started to flow in Ghana; while in other west African countries, it may take couple of weeks for a proper flow to start.
• Ivory coast has increased the minimum buying price this year to 425 FCFA/Kg to 275 FCFA/Kg and will have a long window for only origin processors to buy inshells​.
• Crop flows in Asia have also started and some initial flows were reported in Cambodia. Vietnam and India crops may take a few weeks before any supply is visible.​
• Kernel buyers are mostly covering immediate needs for Q1 and are assessing supply dynamics before covering for forwards.
• Most of the Asian countries were in inactive mode due to Chinese New Year holidays. Post CNY holidays, we may see buyers coming back to test the market

Hazelnuts

Supply

• Hazelnut market continues to be firm – with expectation of the largest buyer to soon start sourcing at higher than current price levels.
• We witnessed some alleviation with TMO releasing 22K MT of its stocks. The stocks were sold off within a single trading day – highlighting that open market liquidity remains constrained and that many exporters might need to cover their shorts.
• Prices have moved up from 250-260 TL band now to 275-280 TL/kg. The TL has depreciated below the 36 TL/kg level, but unable to neutralize the upward price movement.​

Demand

• Overall demand looks steady. We have witnessed some tender volumes drop against last season, but most larger buyers are reporting stable demand despite prices of Cocoa and sugar climbing up.​
  
• The current season exports are better than previous year by almost 7-8%, but predominantly due to the largest buyer being more active.
  
• Most large confectionery buyers have covered their requirements for the season. We expect retail, private label and small & medium size confectionery customers to keep buying, supporting the market.

Peanuts

USDA issued their final crop production report for the 2024 U.S. peanut crop. The report puts final production at 3,224,010 tons of inshell farmer stock. This is an increase of 9.7% from the 2023 crop. 1,758,000 acres were harvested in 2024, which represents an increase of 12.9% vs last year. The average yield per acre harvested was only 3,668 lbs., the lowest since 2016 and the 3rd consecutive year of declining yields.​

Overall domestic demand seems to be holding relatively steady. The last publication of the Peanut Stocks and Processing Report indicates that usage by U.S. manufacturers is down by only -0.1% vs last year (crop year to date). Exports of U.S. peanuts are down –15.7% vs prior year, largely due to a –60.7% decline in shipments to the EU (which is not unexpected). USDA projects thar carryout stocks of 2024 crop U.S. peanuts as of July 31, 2025 will be around 811K tons, an increase of 9.5% vs. the 2023 crop carryout. Many believe the USDA is too aggressive in their demand projections for this year, and that carryout stocks will be more in the range of 925K – 950K tons. This would still represent a manageable carryout...not excessive.​

At the present time, most expect peanut acres in the U.S. in 2025 to be about the same as last year or just slightly higher. This is primarily due to the weak price of cotton, which is the most prevalent competitor for peanut acres. Planting intentions will be published in March.

The market has been relatively quiet recently. Current crop prices for APSA spec, negative aflatoxin redskin peanuts remain in the low $0.60’s, while initial indications for ‘25 crop (available late fall ‘25) are in the upper $0.50s to near $0.60.

Macadamias

Globally, the macadamia market is experiencing steady growth due to increasing consumer preference for healthy snacks and plant-based foods. The market size is expected to reach USD 1.79 billion in 2025, driven by rising demand from regions like Asia-Pacific and North America. Sustainability practices such as organic farming and ethical certifications are becoming key differentiators for producers. However, challenges such as tariff changes and supply chain disruptions persist in this year.

China was very active early last year, sourcing nut-in-shell from all major origins, including Australia, South Africa, and Kenya. However, with China’s own crop harvested in Q4 2024, they seem to be well covered for the Chinese New Year requirements when demand usually spikes, leaving them with a modest opening inventory compared to rest of the world. The consumption patterns during the next few months in China will set the stage for pricing and demand outlook for the 2025 crop.

• South Africa: South Africa’s 2025 macadamia crop is expected to exceed last year’s production by around 10%, with harvesting beginning in March/April. This increase is attributed to favorable flowering conditions and new plantations established in recent years starting to bear fruit. However, exporters remain cautious due to relatively weaker Chinese demand and price uncertainties compared to last year. In 2024, SAMAC revised the crop forecast to 83,726 NIS at 1.5% moisture for the second quarter, which was 7% less than the forecast for the first quarter. With kernel demand strong in most regions, we saw kernel prices moving up in Q3 and Q4 of 2024. Demand continues to keep up, and hence carryover stocks are very low. The combination of increased production and low carryover stocks might lead to prices remaining firm in the short term. 
  
• Australia: The 2025 Australian crop is projected to grow by 11.1%, supported by favorable growing conditions in most regions, including Bundaberg and New South Wales (NSW). However, mixed weather conditions, including high temperatures and rain in parts of Southeast Queensland and Northern NSW, pose risks during harvest. Additionally, the entry of young trees into production is expected to positively impact yields. Market activity is anticipated to pick up in February and March as demand from China becomes clearer. ​ 
• Kenya: Kenya has implemented a ban on inshell harvesting until March 25, 2025, to ensure nut maturity and improve quality standards following issues with premature harvesting in previous years. The Kenyan macadamia industry faced challenges in 2024 due to high farmgate prices driven by Chinese demand, which led to overall processing volumes and kernel exports. The government’s measures aim to stabilize the market and protect local processors from external competition.​

Pistachios

Crop Receipts stand at 1.11 billion lbs and with a carry in of 185 million lbs from previous crop, gross inventory stands at 1.29 billion lbs. Shrinkage and other losses, results in an adjusted inventory of 1.25 billion lbs. In comparison with previous year, availability is down by -22%. Shelling Stock, closed shell remain in tight supply, in turn lowering the overall availability of kernels. 

Domestic demand in December started to saturate, at 19 million lbs compared to 20 million lbs for the previous month. Total Domestic shipments for the season reached 81 million lbs shipments, which is -2.5% YoY reduction. Slowdown was prevalent in shipments to export markets. Export shipments at 60 million lbs in December, were only 42% of previous month export shipments. Total export shipments for the season were at 319 million lbs, which is a -34.2% decrease YoY basis. Drop in shipments are stemming from lower demand in China market compared to previous year. Contributing factors might be high opening prices, expectations on trade policy changes, early lunar new year. Lower shipments coupled with revised shrinkage [reduced losses] adjustments have helped maintain the available inventory of 850 million lbs, which is at similar levels as that of previous month. ​