The Almond Board of California released the December Position Report on Thursday, January 9th. This is the 5th report for the 2024 crop year. Key highlights are below: 

Receipts

Receipts in December were 233.63 million lbs., down 35.3% from last December’s receipts of 360.95 million lbs. This brings total receipts for the crop year to 2.576 billion lbs., up 15.6% vs last year’s 2.228 billion lbs. This receipt number was an unexpected number for the industry. Most had expected receipts to have another strong month due to most hullers and shellers speeding to finish by Christmas. However, receipts dropped off substantially and failed to reach the 2.6 billion lbs. mark. CA will now need receipts to continue to trickle at a normal pace to reach the 2.7-2.8 billion lbs. industry expectations. This would go in contrast to industry expectations that receipts would drop off at a much faster pace than historically post December. 

Shipments

Total shipments FTM were 233.09 million lbs., coming in right near industry expectations of 235 million lbs. This shipment number is up 1.6% vs. last November’s 229.40 million lbs. This December also finished as the second strongest December ever. This solid shipment month has now brought YTD shipments over the previous year (by a whopping 4,665 lbs.!). Shipments continue to make up ground vs last year with solid shipping months following a slow start to the year due to a lack of carryover. 

Domestic shipments were 56.05 million lbs., down 1.1% vs last year’s 56.68 million lbs. Domestic shipments continue to hold around last year’s shipment levels, with them being down .82% YTD. Domestic shipments will likely stay in this percentage range for the remainder of the crop year.   

Export shipments were 177.04 million lbs., which is 2.5% up vs last year’s 172.72 million lbs. Export shipments had another strong month and now brought YTD export shipment up vs. last year.  This month was a mixed bag as far as it comes to export markets, and we saw the whole gambit of outcomes. Turkey, Japan, and South Korea led the report with them all being up considerably for the month. Western Europe was flat showing shipments coming into parity with last year. We expect this trend to continue now that European grades are in stock and available to ship form California. China and India were still down for the month. US Almond shipments into China are largely still less of a priority for this region due to tariff issues, with no signs of any reversal to this trend. India shipments picked up the pace vs. the past few months, and we expect this number to trend upward in the coming months as India has once again started buying heavily from origin over the last 3 weeks.  

Sales & Commitments: Total sales FTM were 182.53 million lbs., down 16.8% vs. last year’s sales of 219.42 million lbs. While sales missed last year’s mark, this was still better than industry expectations. December was overall a slower month for most industry members, but many saw an uptick of business post the bullish Nov Position Report. This uptick helped keep the market active through the holiday period. With the India market now buying to replenish stocks, January is already off to a hot start and we expect this sales number to rebound next month. 

Commitments for the 2024 crop year stand at 561.21 million lbs., which is down 11.96% vs the 637.43 million lbs. from last year. Total commitments have now slipped below the 600 million lbs. mark for the first time this year. This has been due to a combination of buyer and seller strategies. With new pricing not seen in years, buyers have chosen to buy more hand to mouth than they have in previous years when almond prices were at all-time lows. Sellers now have a lack of carryover that they haven’t seen in years, and due to this have been extremely hesitant to sell past bloom before they have an idea of what their next crop can be.   

Uncommitted 2024 crop inventory sits at 1.321 billion lbs., up 9.9% vs last year’s 1.202 billion lbs. With receipts now slowing, uncommitted inventory will go down in the coming months.  

In a Nutshell: 

The December Position Report was mostly a report that fell within industry expectations. Shipments came in right at expectations and were a second best for the month ever. Receipts were the main shocker of the report coming in below what many had expected. Receipts will now need to continue at their recent historical pace in order to reach a final crop size between 2.7 - 2.8 billion lbs., this goes against a steep receipt drop off that some in the industry expect.    

Strong export shipments continued and we are now seeing improvement in the India region which will help this export shipment number to continue to show strong numbers in the months to come. Domestic shipments seem to be staying in their narrow few percent range, with no sign of them breaking out of this range.    

Overall, this report will likely keep the status quo. There have been no signs of this market slowing down, and now receipts are showing a possibility coming in below expectations. Due to this, we could see some sellers start to inch up pricing slightly. Overall the market remains in a good position, with strong shipments and continued sales. All attention is now on bloom, this event will have the biggest impact on pricing for the remainder of the crop year.     

Link to Position Report