Almond Market Report

June 24, 2024

Market Update:

Following last week’s heat wave, temperatures have remained more of a norm for this time of the year.  We have been enjoying the high 80’s to low 90’s in most areas.  The extended forecast, however, does show another heatwave this week with 100’s to 108 in our future. 

The May shipment report was released on June 11th, and as everyone saw, it was quietly the second-largest shipping month for any May period in history.  With 226 million pounds having shipped, this was +15.5% ahead of last year, bringing the industry 5.25% ahead of last year overall. The industry has now shipped over 2.3 billion pounds of almonds through the current crop year. With only two months left for this season, it would appear that this will also be the second largest year for overall shipments in history second only to the 20/21 crop year when we had a 3.1 billion pound crop.  

These shipments have put a great deal of pressure on current stocks remaining. Most of the popular varieties and grades have become difficult to find. Please call with any last-minute needs you may have before new crop and we will do our best to fill your needs. 

With crop receipts pretty much done, the crop will settle in near 2.44 billion pounds. Meanwhile, the subjective estimate is predicting a bounce back in the crop to 3.0 billion pounds.  This will be the topic of discussion up to the Objective Estimate on July 10th, since we have not seen that kind of production in three years. It will be a busy week between the two industry reports, let’s hope without controversy.   

Upcoming Industry Milestones:

  • Objective Estimate: July 10, 2024
  • Position Report: July 11, 2024

Almond Market Trends - Week 25:

Bullish Trends:

  • The market has reacted to the tight supply remaining. This will continue and seems to have pulled new crop pricing up with it. With over 173 million pounds already in the books for new crop, this is over three times that of last year’s new crop sales for the same time period.
  • Additionally new sales for current crop were 134 million pounds up 18% versus last years new sales of 114 million, and will contribute to a very tight transition with a carry-out of less than 450 million pounds.
  • Even with the larger crop on the horizon, supply will be more balanced now with demand in the future. 

Bearish Trends:

  • Should the Objective Estimate grow beyond the 3 billion pounds estimated, this could potentially throw that fragile balance out of sync.  This is especially important as shipping costs are increasing globally and three times what they were only a few months ago as containers are being pulled back to China.
  • As supply has dwindled, there may be little to ship in August or September as processors wait to harvest and ship new crop. This may lead to a slow start to the new crop year.
  • The Objective Estimate could certainly be the game changer, and everyone is patiently waiting for the next couple of weeks before making further decisions.  
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