Nuts

Market Insights


June 2023

Pistachio

Global Pistachio Production is forecasted to increase significantly in the 2023/2024 crop year, driven mainly by larger crops in both the USA and Iran. At the INC in May, 2023 crop global production was forecasted to grow from 747k MTs last year to 1.022 mn MTs this upcoming crop year, an increase of 37%. Total supply is also forecasted to increase from 1.058 mn MTs to 1.238 mn MTs, an increase of 17%.

The transition between current crop and new crop will be interesting this year as there is minimal current crop in-shell left, so pricing is at a premium, and the new crops are forecasted to be much larger this year, suggesting pricing should soften. The USA crop is also expected to be delayed about two weeks currently due to the mild summer we have experienced so far, with harvest possibly not starting until September. This will further complicate the crop transition as overseas markets will need coverage for festival periods. 

World Pistachio Production has been steadily increasing over the last 10 years (up 46%), and so far increases in demand have kept pace with the increased supply. However, this year may prove difficult as consumption for nuts is sluggish across the globe. If the larger crops do materialize as forecasted, the pistachio industry’s resolve may be tested and it will be interesting to see how leadership responds.

So far, global crops have been progressing nicely with no major threats to production reported in any origin. It’s just beginning to get hot in California, and it will be worth watching the temperature to ensure we do not experience the same issues as last year. Last year, the crop on the trees in California looked promising, but an extended, extreme heat wave just before harvest made it difficult to harvest many nuts from the trees.

Bullish Trends

  • 2022 crop carry-out’s are minimal.
  • There is little-to-no good quality inshell left in current crop, leading to a tight transition.
  • There is likely pent-up demand building in export markets waiting for the 2023 crops to arrive.

Bearish Trends

  • USA crop is forecasted to be 47% larger this year.
  • Iran’s crop is forecasted to be 89% larger this year.
  • Consumption is sluggish globally across nuts.
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