Happy New Year to all. With January, California enters it’s wettest time of the winter. The almond trees are dormant as they rest in wait for their bloom in early February. We have already had some fairly cold days in December with more expected in January for the all-important chilling hours assisting in healing the trees during their dormancy. All eyes will be on our weather leading up to the February bloom. 

The Almond Board released the November Position Report three weeks ago. Crop receipts in November grew by almost 500 million pounds, but was down 6.8% to last November’s 533 million pounds. Crop receipts to date are up 25.4% at 2.342 billion pounds. These numbers are less than what would be expected by this point. If we assume that 85-90% of the crop is received and reported by now, then this would put the crop between 2.60-2.75 billion pounds, opposed to the official USDA Objective Estimate of 2.8 billion pounds. The next position report due out January 9, 2025.

To this point, total shipments for the crop year are at 911.7 million pounds just off by -0.40% to last year, essentially flat to last year. With such a small carry-out this season of 503 million pounds, the transition this year was especially tight leading to a tough start this year. As the crop came in over the last 5 months, we began to catch up. November shipments were 271.4 million pounds up 13.9% over last year’s 238 million pounds and exceeded industry expectations. This is also a record shipment historically for the month of November. 

Domestic shipments were 54.44 million lbs., down 9.8% vs last year’s 60.37 million lbs. after a strong October shipment number. Domestic shipments continue to be up and down. While a poor month for domestic, YTD shipments are virtually flat for the year. Look for Domestic shipments to bounce back once again in the months ahead.   

Export shipments were the shining star for November with 217 million pounds shipped, up 22% versus a year ago 178 million pounds. Export shipments were strong mainly to the EU. This may be hard to duplicate as it was also an historic shipment number into Europe. Nevertheless, Europe remains down -3% YoY so expectations are to continue to see growth in the months ahead. The ME region also had a strong month, driven largely off Turkey shipments. China continues to be down on shipments as this region looks for non-tariff affected almonds from other origins namely Australia. The India market has continued to be focused on consuming their current stock and have now seen 3 months of depressed shipments leading them to be down 23% YoY. This will likely force the India region to buy and replenish their stocks soon.

Sales & Commitments: Total new sales for November were 209.46 million lbs., slightly up .6% vs. last year’s sales of 208.22 million lbs. Both domestic and export sales largely matched last year’s numbers. This number overall was smaller than some of the previous months of the crop year due to the Thanksgiving holiday making November a short month, however we are still seeing business concluded at higher price levels as the market continues to firm on expectations of lower supply. 

Commitments for the 2024 crop year stand at 611.77 million lbs., which is down 5.5% vs the 647.42 million lbs. from last year. This is really a function of lack of offers as growers cautiously continue to wait not offering out too far into the year. However, total commitments remain near last year’s levels, we still do not expect commitments to rise out of this range in the near term due to CA’s unwillingness to sell anything out past the next 3 months. This commitment number could push lower next month due to a combo of slow sales during the holiday period and CA’s lack of interest for post bloom sales.  

Uncommitted 2024 crop inventory sits at 1.275 billion lbs., up 19.4% vs last year’s 1.067 billion lbs. This number will stabilize next month and start to move downwards as new crop receipts are finalizing quickly. 

Land IQ’s Final Acreage Report was posted last month. The report shows bearing acreage revised upward to 1.383 million acres with 30,515 acres identified as abandoned, leading to a final bearing acreage estimate of 1.35 million acres. This would be roughly 20,000 acres down vs. the initial estimate of 2024, which remained unchanged vs. the 2023 crop. The non-bearing acres also came down from 189,000 acres in 2023 to 143,000 acres for 2024, another significant decrease. We have now seen bearing acreage trending down in California for the first time and this trend is expected to continue for the upcoming 2025 crop.

Upcoming Industry Milestones:

• Position Report:  January 9, 2025
• PTNPA Scottsdale AZ: January 17 - 20, 2025

Bullish Trends:

• The November shipment report was another strong report for California. Shipments set a record for any November and brought total shipments even to last year at this time.  
• Buyers continue to support new price levels as consumption remains strong, leading to buyer confidence. Expectations are for continued firming in the months ahead. 
• Production lines at the processors remain full. Given this, it is a leading indicator that demand continues as new price levels make their way into the supply chain. 

Bearish Trends:

• Deterring buyers from booking long spread business (which is California’s strategy) could lead to lower shipments. Higher prices are met with resistance as buyers’ purchases are more measured and decreased in quantities ordered.  
• With the crop almost completely received processor’s capacities for storage are full. This may lead to a buying opportunities as processors look to push supply out.  
• The December position report should be a deciding factor, if supply suddenly is closer or exceeds the 2.8 billion pound estimate a buying opportunity may present itself.