Almond Market Report

December 1, 2023

Market & Crop Update:

The Almond Board of California (ABC), in addition to using NASS data for acreage, also employs Land IQ. Land IQ released its final acreage report for 2023, showing a slight increase in bearing acreage for the new crop to 1.374 million acres, up from the initial estimate of 1.366 million acres. However, total acres, including both bearing and non-bearing, decreased from 1.637 million acres to 1.563 million, marking a significant drop of 74,000 acres, a trend unprecedented in almond acreage. This decline may persist given the state of the industry and grower returns.

During the Thanksgiving holiday week, the market was active early on before the break, with business conducted across most markets. Despite this, offers remained subdued due to a scarcity of smaller sizes. Sizing continues to skew larger across most varieties, with some handlers reporting nothing smaller than 23/25. Many buyers continue to inquire about sizes 27/30 and smaller, leading to little-to-no support at the moment. Pricing may shift, with smaller sizes potentially carrying a premium compared to larger sizes. Expect limited offers in the immediate future without suppliers having physical inventory to support the sale.

The October Position Report that was released on November 10, 2023, showed shipments of 247 million pounds, marking the third-strongest October in almond history, a +15.3% increase over last October. Year-to-date total shipments are +7.25% ahead of last year. November shipments are expected to align with October, further boosting the industry's shipments compared to last year.

Pricing is anticipated to remain steady through the end of the year and into the first quarter of 2024, with handlers seeking premiums going beyond the first quarter.

Upcoming Industry Milestones

  • Almond Board Conference: December 5th-7th, 2023, Sacramento Convention Center
  • Position Report: December 12, 2023

Almond Market Insights - Week 47:

Bullish Trends:

  • November shipments could mirror October, this would push overall shipments to +9% ahead of last year at this time.
  • The declining bearing acreage has the potential to align total supply with overall demand in the years to come.
  • Pricing remains attractive for buyers and a combination of firmness with strong shipments brings confidence in the market.

Bearish Trends:

  • All eyes will be on the February bloom, which will set the stage for pricing through the remaining supply of this crop and signal where the supply could be for next year.
  • Domestic demand remains flat year over year, putting more pressure on exports. Seasonality may come into play after the first of the year for future shipments.
  • The holiday selling season is behind us, and China is quickly closing for the Chinese New Year. 
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