Global Nuts Market & Crop Update

Almonds

April has delivered very mild weather throughout the first part of the growing season. On average temperatures have been 7 degrees above normal. The snow season is all but over in the Sierras leaving us with a statewide snow pack of 70% to normal. With the south region at only 52% to normal, water will definitely continue to be an issue for growers this summer. If it was not for late storms, the snow-pack situation would have been even worse. That storm delivered enough snow to bring the state average up 11% in the course of two weeks! ​

The Almond Board released the March position report on April 10th. The crop receipts now rest at 2.70 billion pounds, 100 million pounds below the USDA estimate of 2.80 billion pounds. The industry expects the crop to finish around 2.72 billion pounds. Since the report, we have seen the market firming weekly as total supply will be less than we have had since the 2019/2020 crop year. The industry will need to have 500 million to 550 million pounds of carry-over to maintain a smoother transition from the current crop to the new crop. ​

Shipments:
Total shipments year to date are at 1.809 billion pounds, about -2% to last year at this time. With less almonds to sell, we may see this trend continue. However, April shipments are expected to be stronger than last month with industry expectations for April shipments to be 235 million pounds vs last months shipment of 221 million. Regardless, the industry will not be able to keep up with the shipments we saw last year. The only thing that would possibly change this thinking would be the subjective estimate announcing something exceeding a 2.80 billion pound crop. Regardless, the industry will be tight on remaining supply of the 2024/2025 crop.

Sales & Commitments: Sales in March were above expectations at 217.6 million pounds up 20% over last year. Since everyone is selling for close by shipments, this is the reasoning for April shipments to be above March shipments. ​With uncommitted inventory sitting at 766 million lbs. down 1.1% versus last year at this time. This is driving the firming market as supply is dwindling fast. Expectations are expected for this to continue through the remainder of this crop year.

Cashews

Majority portion of the West African and Asian crops has flown through by end April. We have passed the peak flow of the crop and now last flush of the season is about to start. Overall crop volume and quality is better in 2025 as compared to last year. Prices of inshell have bounced back in April after a dip at the end of March and have remained firm since.​ 

Inshell inventories at destination continue to remain thin as most of the landings are expected to start from the end of May onwards and will be available for production​. 

On Kernels, spot inventories in Vietnam remain thin as buyers are pulling contracts earlier due to the tariff situation. This spot demand has made market firm, and we have seen pricing moving up by 20c-25c per lbs across major grades.​ Indian market is following similar trend in kernels due to lesser availability on spot and prices have increased by 10c per lbs in last 2 weeks.​ Other Asian markets have maintained an active presence in the market, covering kernels until Q3. China  is showing strong buying interest at the start of season for Cambodian kernels providing liquidity for the large flow of crop. Europe/US had a balanced coverage in April with few tenders getting closed for conventional and organic.

Hazelnuts

Supply

• The Black Sea region, along with other central regions of Turkey experienced abnormally cold weather during 10th and 13th of April, leading to frost in 36 out of 81 provinces, having a notable effect on the upcoming Hazelnut crop.
  • The low areas – below 400m are unaffected. We expect normal crop from these areas​
  • In the mid altitude areas – from 400-700m, we have seen inconsistent and partial damage. 
  • Most of the damage seems to have occurred above 700 m heights, and to the south side of the mountains. 
  • The west region – Akcakoca variety is largely unaffected. Most plantations are below 600m, and thus we see almost no damage. Ordu and Samsun regions (which are the largest growing regions) have been affected the most – thus triggering a wider concern on the crop size.​
  • We do not expect the overall impact on the crop of more than 10-15%, thus around 75-100K MT of inshells. While other reports are mentioning  possibly higher damage, our analysis thus far does not indicate so.​
• The local buyers have sourced almost 60K from the TMO in the past 2 weeks. Any possible shortages due to the frost are being offset by the TMO supplying stocks to the market. The current crop balance is sizeable (around 350K to our estimate), but with frost and possible stink bug activity, the supply has dried up.​
• The Black sea exporter’s association had announced a subjective estimate of 768K MT for upcoming season. The 2nd round of counting will begin on the 23rd of April and expected to continue till 3rd May. We await a revised estimate faround the INC meet at Majorca during 7th and 10th of May.
• On a positive side, Chilean crop has been better than expected with an additional supply of 25-30K MT on inshells.​
• For now, we do not see much trade and thus no clear price indications. However, it is expected that prices will shoot up in the next few days, and remain high for some period. Though supply seems adequate for the current season, adverse news due to frost and possible stink bug damage have led to widespread hoarding of stocks.​

Demand

• The largest buyer seems to have covered its annual requirements before the frost event. We do not foresee much buying from the largest buyer till the new crop.​​
  
• Most other larger confectionery buyers have covered their season requirements. Some mid-small size players are yet to cover and now it might be difficult to source for next few days.
  
• Local Turkish demand has been extremely sluggish – most large buyers have reduced their annual sourcing volumes.​
• Most market feedback indicates hazelnut consumption to be steady, or slightly declining. We are witnessing some impact on many confectionery brands given the higher prices of other ingredients like cocoa​.
  

Our View:

• The frost damage this season surely is notable and will lead to a weak crop next year. However, TMO has released its inventories, and most of this possible shortage is covered. However, market sentiment now is clearly bullish and is expected to remain so for the short term. Current prices are irrational as we do not see any sellers, and we hope to get some clarity only by next week when the market finds some stability.​

Peanuts

The USDA is predicting that peanut acres in the U.S will increase 8% in 2025. A summary of projected acreage can be found in the table below.

Planting is underway, particularly in the southeast. Soil moisture is extremely low and many peanut-growing areas in the country are experiencing some level of drought conditions. If moisture isn't received soon, planting could be delayed, which would not be ideal.​

The U.S. market has continued to be very quiet in recent weeks. Market prices for current crop have continued to weaken, with seemingly very little volume being traded. Current crop prices seem to be in the mid to upper $0.50's. New crop prices are generally in the range of $0.53/$0.54 for splits, $0.54 / $0.55 for mediums and $0.55 / $0.56 for jumbos (all APSA spec, negative aflatoxin). Buyers who have taken some early coverage are in no rush to take on additional positions as they seem there is little risk (at the moment) for the market to move higher.​

According to USDA Peanut Stocks & Processing Report, edible peanut usage by U.S. manufacturers is down 1.4% crop year to date vs last year (August – March). Usage in the candy segment is down 8.4%, usage in peanut butter is down 1.9%, and usage in snacks is up 4.6%. ​

Macadamias

The harvesting of nut inshells is underway in all key origins, and the crop so far is looking good with an expected 7-8% increase compared to 2024. Kernel prices have continued to remain firm in April due to low inventory levels and strong demand across key markets last month, along with some European retailers firming up on annual tender volumes.​ In South Africa, crop flows are looking decent as expected, and the overall quality has been good.​ Australia has had some weather-related setbacks in the past few weeks. Heavy rains following Cyclone Alfred have caused some damage in orchards, and there has been a drop in quality, but recovery is expected.​ Prices for inshell have remained firm due to more processors trying to get hold of the early crop, but they may soften once the crop flow increases.​ China opened the year with good inventory inshell coverage from the previous crop and continues to stay away from the market, with very little interest expected for Q2/Q3. This may soften inshell prices a bit in weeks to come.

• South Africa: The 2025 macadamia crop in South Africa is expected to increase by 10%, reaching 93,433 MT DNIS compared to last year. The crop flow is promising, and processors began production in April. Strong kernel demand is motivating processors to crack most nuts locally rather than exporting NIS. However, as the crop flow increases, inshells will need to be traded to other markets like China, which has the largest consumer base for inshell nuts.​
  
• Australia: Australia's macadamia crop for 2025 is projected to grow by 8%. Tropical Cyclone Alfred, followed by severe rainfalls in key growing areas, caused some anticipated damage and delays in harvest. The 'notional' farm gate offers for the season are approximately 20% higher than last year's low due to a stronger kernel outlook compared to 2024. The demand from China for inshell nuts will determine if prices can remain stable throughout the season.​
  
• Kenya: Harvesting is currently underway, and processors started shipments in April. Kenya has decided to uphold its ban on NIS exports to support the local processing industry. The Kenyan macadamia industry faced difficulties in 2024 due to high farm gate prices driven by Chinese demand, resulting in reduced processing volumes and kernel exports. This year's government measures aim to stabilize the market and protect local processors from external competition.​​

Pistachios

Crop Receipts stand at 1.11 billion lbs and with a carry in of 185 million lbs from previous crop, gross inventory stands at 1.29 billion lbs. Shrinkage and other losses, results in an adjusted inventory of 1.14 billion lbs. In comparison with previous year, availability is down by -23%. Limited Availability in shelling stock and closed shell resulting in relatively lower kernel availability. 

Signs of recovery are shown in both domestic and export markets with domestic shipment accounting for 22 million lbs [+19% growth from Feb.] of shipments alongside export shipments of 63 million lbs [+29% growth from Feb] in Mar. Driven by steady shipments to Germany, Italy and Spain, EU market is performing relatively better, almost on par with previous year while Asia and Middle East & Africa underperformed with ~ -39% reduction from previous year. Covering +54% of the available inventory, total shipments for the season stand at 617 million lbs. Almost all the processors are 90% sold, resulting in a supply crunch for Q2 and Q3 demand. Shortage is more predominant in kernels, due to relatively lower Inshells defects from which kernels are processed. New Crop estimates range from ~1.6 to 1.8 billion lbs.​