April has delivered very mild weather throughout the first part of the growing season. On average temperatures have been 7 degrees above normal. The snow season is all but over in the Sierras leaving us with a statewide snow pack of 70% to normal. With the south region at only 52% to normal, water will definitely continue to be an issue for growers this summer. If it was not for the late storm we had two weeks ago in the Sierras the situation would have been even worse. That storm delivered enough snow to bring the state average up 11% in the course of two days! 

The Almond Board released the March position report on April 10th. The crop receipts now rest at 2.70 billion pounds, 100 million pounds below the USDA estimate of 2.80 billion pounds. The industry expects the crop to finish around 2.72 billion pounds. Since the report, we have seen the market firming weekly as total supply will be less than we have had since the 2019/2020 crop year. The industry will need to have 500 million to 550 million pounds of carry-over to maintain a smoother transition from the current crop to the new crop. 

Shipments:

Total shipments year to date are at 1.809 billion pounds, about -2% to last year at this time. With less almonds to sell, we may see this trend continue. However, April shipments are expected to be stronger than last month with industry expectations for April shipments to be 235 million pounds vs last months shipment of 221 million. Regardless, the industry will not be able to keep up with the shipments we saw last year. The only thing that would possibly change this thinking would be the subjective estimate announcing something exceeding a 2.80 billion pound crop. Regardless, the industry will be tight on remaining supply of the 2024/2025 crop. 

Sales & Commitments: Sales in March were above expectations at 217.6 million pounds up 20% over last year. Since everyone is selling for close by shipments, this is the reasoning for April shipments to be above March shipments. 

Uncommitted inventory is sitting at 766 million lbs. down 1.1% versus last year at this time. This is driving the firming market as supply is dwindling fast. Expectations are expected for this to continue through the remainder of this crop year.   

Upcoming Industry Milestones:

• Position Report:  May 13, 2025
• Subjective Estimate: May 12, 2025

Bullish Trends:

• Tracking shipments shows that the industry is on par to manage the carry-out of 550 million pounds which will be the target.  
• With pricing levels continuing to be firm on all grades, business continues to be concluded at these new levels. 
• Industry expectations are for the next crop to be similar to current crop, leaving the industry in a more balanced position with supply and demand.

Bearish Trends:

• Tariff concerns continue to be a cloud over California’s head, pressure will be put on remaining inventories and could result in less overall demand in the months ahead. 
• With March shipments for both domestic and export down -6.6%, CA will need to start making up ground in upcoming shipment reports.
• While bloom was labeled questionable by many growers,  California had great bloom weather followed by rainstorms/snow in the Sierra’s, and all is set up for a good growing season.