April showers should be bringing a beautiful spring with it as California has plenty of water this year and storage throughout all the reservoirs should be at capacity. We saw temperatures return to normal last week with mid-70s throughout the growing regions - the type of weather that the state is known for! The almond orchards are looking strong and, generally speaking, the trees look rested and healthy. Having said that, two industry pundits have announced their new crop estimates for the 2024/25 crop between 2.79 to 2.97 billion pounds. 

March shipments were at 237 million pounds, down -15.7% from last year, but consistent with industry expectations. Crop receipts are topping out now at 2.437 billion pounds, lower than last year at this time by -4.07%, off from last year’s 2.54 billion pounds and the estimated 2.6 billion pounds. This is the third crop year of declining almond production in California. However, it appears there will be a turn-around for the 2024 crop year.

To date, the industry has shipped 1.838 billion pounds and stands ahead of last year’s shipments +2.25% YTD. Domestic shipments in March were a disappointing 62.45 million pounds, down 6% versus last year’s 66.44 million pounds. Domestic shipments remain slightly down versus last year’s crop, being down .97% YOY. Export shipments did not help as March 2024 was going up against the largest March in history, with 174.59 million pounds, which was down -18.7% versus last year’s 214.63 million pounds. 

Meanwhile, sales & commitments reflect a market working hand-to-mouth. Total sales for the month were 181.67 million pounds, up 26.5% versus last year’s sales of 143.60 million pounds. Despite being the lowest sales month of the year, the industry managed to surpass last year’s number. Once bloom concluded at the beginning of March, customers came back into the market, as well as sellers, to help prop it up once again. Commitments stand at 575.5 million pounds, off 11% from last year. With a smaller crop this year, uncommitted inventory is also down with 774.5 million pounds, compared to last year’s 881 million pounds. This leaves less available inventory remaining for the rest of the current crop year. Now is an excellent time to close all your needs for the rest of the crop year. 

Upcoming Industry Milestones:

• Acreage Estimate by LandIQ: April 24, 2024
• Nursery Report: April 25, 2024
• Subjective Estimate: May 10, 2024
• Position Report: May 14, 2024
• Objective Estimate: July 10, 2024

Bullish Trends:

• Shipments have continued to be adequate to crop size and remain ahead in shipments to last year by 2.25%, overall.  
• The carry-out is on pace to be below 550 million pounds. This is better than we have seen in several years now.
• The market remains committed to marketing almonds aggressively and is more willing now to sell further out than at any time this season.

Bearish Trends:

• With a good bloom now and early forecasts near 3 billion pounds, it is time to get busy to avoid supply exceeding demand once again.
• We have seen prices drop this week, making some buyers cautious in locking in their remaining needs.
• With current commitments behind last year, the industry will need to continue to sell aggressively.