Market Insights

February 2023


2022 crop receipts stand at 747,870 tons as of end Jan and it is becoming increasingly clear this crop will finish in line with our previous forecast of 750,000 to 765,000 tons. Using aestimated final crop of 760,000 tons and adding in the record 2021 crop carry out, this would give us a total supply of ~895,000 tons for the 2022 crop year. This represents an 8% increase over the 2021 crop year.

The California Walnut industry is fully aware of the task at hand and has had all hands-on deck trying to move this supply and bring the carry out inventories back in line with reasonable levels. As a result, shipments have improved, with January shipments up 26.4% over last year and YTD shipments now up 4% vs last year. This is a huge step in the right direction. Domestic shipments are now up 13.8%YTD, while export is up 0.8%YTD.

We expect shipments to finish very strong in the second half of this crop year for the simple fact that they have to. Commitments are up 3.11% vs end of Jan last year, which will help lead to stronger shipments. However, one point of concern on this overall strong shipment report was new sales in the month of Jan 2023 being down 26% vs Jan 2022. With all the Walnuts that need to move, we need to see stronger sales in the coming months.

Chile has begun their 2023 crop harvest and is expecting a slightly larger crop than last year. Last year they harvested 185,000 MTs and are expecting 191,000 MTs this year, an increase of 3.2%.

Bullish Trends

  • At low prices, shipments are improving. Shipments are now up 4%YoY and commitments are up 3.11%
  • Good quality light product is becoming harder to find in 2022 CA crop and should hold its value
  • At current price levels, Walnuts are the best value when compared to competing nuts

Bearish Trends

  • Too many Walnuts
  • Too many Walnuts
  • Too many Walnuts
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