Global pistachio production is expected to see a substantial increase in the 2023/2024 crop year, primarily driven by larger crops in both the US and Iran. The INC’s “May 2023” forecast projected the global production for the 2023 crop year to grow to 1.022 million MTs, an increase of 37% versus last year’s 747,000 MTs. Global total supply is also forecasted to rise from 1.058 million MTs to 1.238 million MTs (+17%).
World pistachio production has been steadily increasing over the past decade (+46%), and so far, increases in demand have kept pace with the rapid supply growth. So far, pistachios have demonstrated higher price elasticity compared to other nuts. However, with less prosperous economic conditions and lower priced nut alternatives available in the market due to over-supply, consumer preferences could be tested this year.
Shipments were down in June at 86.7 million pounds, an 8% decrease versus last year. However, shipments are still outperforming year-to-date, up +8.5%. Exports remain flat for the month at 65 million pounds (+16% year-to-date), while domestic shipments continue to underperform at 21 million pounds in June (-25% versus last year) and 206 million pounds year-to-date (-8% year-to-date).
Current crop pricing remains firm as dwindling supply of the current crop has led to higher prices for buyers needing immediate coverage. However, early reports of new crop business are coming in much lower. The US crop is expected to be delayed about two weeks currently due to the mild summer we have experienced so far, with harvest possibly not starting until September. This will further complicate the crop transition as overseas markets will need coverage for festival periods.
To date, the incoming pistachio crop across origins has enjoyed positive conditions, with no major concerns reported. California has seen one of the mildest summers in recent memory, and water shortage has not been an issue this year. Should the positive weather continue, we could be in for a high-quality crop. If larger crop sizes do materialize as forecasted, pistachio demand will be tested as it is forced to compete in a market over-supplied lower priced alternatives.
- Shipments are up 8.5% year-to-date, driven by exports.
- There is likely pent-up demand building in exports market waiting for the 2023 crops to arrive.
- 2022 crop inventory levels and carry-outs are minimal.
- Domestic shipments down 8% year-to-date are a sign of declining demand.
- Both USA and Iran are expecting larger crops leading to increased global supply.
- Many lower priced, over supplied alternatives will test pistachio consumer loyalty this year.