Nuts

Market Insights


August 2023

Pistachio

The pistachio industry is maintaining its positive trajectory witnessed in recent months, with positive performances in both domestic shipments and exports. While current crop inventory retains its firm pricing, intriguing supply and demand dynamics are on the horizon as global production is expected to reach record highs. The 2023/2024 crop year is poised to witness a substantial surge in global pistachio production, primarily propelled by larger harvests in the US and Iran.

According to the INC’s May 2023 forecast, global production for the 2023 crop year is projected to rise to 1.022 million metric tons, representing a significant 37% increase compared to last year’s 747,000 metric tons. Moreover, the global total supply is forecasted to grow from 1.058 million metric tons to 1.238 million metric tons (+17%).

Shipments continued their positive trajectory in July, reaching 59.2 million pounds, a 7.6% increase versus last year. Shipments are now up +8.5% year-to-date. Exports remained the key driver, accounting for 39.9 million pounds (+15.5% year-to-date), with Europe witnessing a 14% increasecompared to last July. Moreover, the domestic market showed improvement with a 4.5% rise compared to the previous year, though it still lags in year-to-date performance at -6.9%. Projections for August shipments indicate sustained strong performance, which would result in one of the lowest carry-outs in recent years. Current inventory prices remain stable, primarily due to the scarcity of uncommitted inventory and the expected shortage in September caused by the delayed crop. However, the forthcoming large new crop has led to notably lower prices for new crop offerings.

California is experiencing an exceptionally mild summer, with no concerns about water availability this year. Preliminary reports from the field suggest a healthy and heavy incoming crop. This could potentially lead to a positive year for consumers, as the larger crop size may translate to affordable, high-quality pistachios becoming widely available. Conversely, this situation could present a challenge for pistachio handlers, as they’ll need to compete with other plentiful, lower-priced nuts to attract buyers.

Bullish Trends

  • Shortages in September are expected due to the projected low carry-out and delayed new crop.
  • Shipments are up 8% year-to-date, driven by exports.
  • Strong performances in developing markets (ME, Africa).

Bearish Trends

  • Both USA and Iran are expecting larger crops leading to increased global supply.
  • Over-supplied alternatives will test Pistachio consumer preferences this coming year.
  • Domestic shipments are down 6.9% year-to-date.
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