Global Nuts Market & Crop Update

Almonds

The Almond Board released the August Position Report on Thursday, September 11th. This is the first report for the 2025 crop. Receipts in August were 259.03 million lbs., down 11.0% from last August’s receipts of 290.10 million lbs.

Shipments:
Total shipments for the month were 157.80 million lbs. coming in below industry expectations of 180 million lbs. This shipment number is down 6.23% vs. last August’s 168.28 million lbs. ​

Domestic shipments were 48.45 million lbs., down 21.92% vs. last year’s 62.05 million lbs., marking a slow start for the domestic market. Weak domestic demand remains a significant concern, particularly as the 2025 crop year gets underway. With back-to-back years of underwhelming domestic performance, the industry is questioning what it will take to turn this trend around.​

Export shipments were 109.35 million lbs., which is up 2.94% vs. last year’s 106.23 million lbs. Growth was driven by strong year over year gains in Western Europe and the Middle East, signaling healthy demand in these regions. While shipments to India pulled back from last month’s record pace, demand for September appears strong as July volumes continue to move through the pipeline as India prepares for Diwali. With domestic consumption underperforming, sustained strength in export markets will be essential to maintaining momentum and supporting overall market balance.​ 

Sales & Commitments:

Sales for the month were 184.15 million lbs., up 15.6% vs. last year’s sales of 159.35 million lbs. reflecting continued engagement from both buyers and sellers as pricing trends firm. Handlers appear committed to maintaining momentum, supported by a shrinking crop outlook. ​

Commitments for the 2025 crop year stand at 526.66 million lbs., down 13.3% vs the 607.58 million lbs. from last year. Export commitments are below prior-year levels, suggesting that both buyers and sellers are still under committed vs. last year. This leaves room for upside as market clarity improves, and global demand continues to show resilience.

Uncommitted 2025 crop inventory sits at 53.19 million lbs. which is up 380% vs. last year’s 11.08 million lbs. ​

Cashews

The cashew season for northern hemisphere has come to an end. Based on the export numbers at the end of July, overall volume looks higher by 10% as compared to LY for northern hemisphere crops. A major portion of exportable volume has been shipped by end of July to destination markets, which thereby has improved availability of raw nut for processing in India/Vietnam.​​ 

Processing is at its peak in Asia & Africa in Q3 and we will see an increase in kernel export volumes in coming months to fulfill existing contracts. EU, China & Middle East has bought more aggressively this year, which has depleted the pipeline inventories for H1 2025. US imports were also higher until Q2, but we have seen a gradual decline in overall imports due to higher tariffs and uncertainty in demand due to increase in costs. 

India demand is sluggish from July onwards but is expected to pick up from October as the festival season starts. Europe and China are expected to be stable in their demand for Q3/Q4. For US, we should expect further drop in demand as the new prices for snack nuts will be declared, adjusting for tariff impacts.

With stronger Euro, we have seen activity from European markets even during the holiday season. Buyers have covered their partial requirements and looking for cover for far forward when suitable pricing is available.

Hazelnuts

Harvest in Turkey and across other origins continued in September. Prices continued to firm up during the 1st half ofSeptember, following the August trend. Late September has seen prices softening, attributed to improved supply.​

Supply

• Carryover Stocks: Estimated at 150,000–170,000 MT in Turkey. Many traders/manavs have carried the previous
  season crop in anticipation of better price levels. We expect the carry over to now get traded soon.​
• Crop Estimate: The Ministry of Agriculture had initially projected the crop at 464,000 metric tons (MT) of inshells. In contrast, the exporters’ association estimated a significantly higher figure of 601,000 MT. Most market analysts now believe the actual crop size lies between these two estimates, with the current consensus placing it closer to 550,000 MT.
• Chile crop is expected to have crossed 110K MT (up from 65K) and has provided some cushion for the largest buyer. US crop too is seeming very good and is expected to cross 100K MT. Italian crop on the other hand has had similar issues to that of Turkey – drought in particular, leading to lower yields.​
• Supply Outlook: We have observed significant improvement in supply in the last 2-3 weeks, thus releasing some pressure on the prices. As US and Georgian offers have flooded the market, demand for much costlier Turkish origin has subsided, thus reducing prices of Turkish origin as well.​

Demand

• Buyer Behavior:
  • The largest buyer has been watching from the sidelines in Turkey so far, thanks the cushion from other origins like Chile. We expect them to cover from Turkey soon.
  • Larger industrial buyers have mostly covered Q4 and early Q1 needs, and many continue to cover their needs as supply has improved.  ​
  • Mid- and small-sized buyers, especially in retail and confectionery, remain cautious, waiting for price stabilization. Many of these are still uncovered for Q4, and thus demand expected to be strong in the initial few weeks of the season.
    
• Domestic Market: Still sluggish, with many reducing annual tender volumes. Higher prices expected to hit the domestic demand further.
• Turkish exports have fallen significantly in September this year (12.5K) compared to last season (24K) - indicating sluggish demand at current price levels. ​​
• Market Outlook:
  • Supply Balance: Despite Turkey’s lower crop, adequate overall supply is expected, supported by carryover and better crops in other origins. ​
  • Price Trends: Prices climbed to the all-time peak of 720 TL/kg - almost 18 $/kg by mid-September, albeit with very thin trading volume. Prices have eased a bit to 690 TL/kg, around 16.5 $/kg - but still at multi year highs. The market is showing signs of stabilization at these levels as trades have increased.​
  • Forward View: We have observed substantial demand to cover for prompt/ shorter term as availability has improved. We expect this demand to support prices for some time. The largest buyer is also expected to enter soon, supporting prices for the near future. On a longer term though, the supply-demand gap will widen in favor of the supply, and gradually prices should come off the multi-year highs.

Despite Turkey’s below-average crop, global Hazelnut supply remains sufficient as supply improves, and demand reduces. Prices reached record highs in mid-September but have started to soften slightly. While short-term demand and the major buyer may keep prices buoyant in the near term, a gradual correction is expected as supply continues to normalize.​

Peanuts

Data found in the USDA's September 2025 Crop Production Report indicates that U.S. peanut acres increased 8.5% in 2025 vs the prior year.   USDA is now predicting that 2025 peanut production will reach 3.697 million tons, which would be an increase of 14.7% vs last year.   Overall average yield per acre is predicted to be 3,890 lbs per acre, which would be an increase of 52 lbs per acre.  Harvest is underway and the pace is beginning to increase.  As of September 29, 404,602 tons of farmer stock have been graded by USDA, which which represents about 11% of the anticipated final production quantity.   Crop conditions have declined in recent weeks due to extremely dry weather in the Southeast and V/C growing regions.  There has been some rainfall in these areas in recent days which should slightly help the situation, but the areas still remain drier than normal.   As of September 25th, 46% of the peanut growing areas were experiencing drought conditions.  Its likley that the late season dry weather will negatively impact yields and quality, but the exact extent of the impact isn't known at this time.​

The kernel market has remained steady in recent weeks. After weakening steadily for several weeks, prices seem to have found a floor at least for the moment.  Runner Splits are in the $0.46 - $0.47 range, with Runner Mediums and Runner Jumbos $0.01 - $0.02 higher. Blanched Jumbos are offered in the $0.61 - $0.62 range, with Blanched Splits available $0.02 - $0.03 lower. All eyes will continue to be on weather conditions for the remainder of the harvest season as we look to get a better understanding of overall yields and quality. 

Source: Crop Production (September 2025)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Overall demand still seems rather sluggish. For the '24 crop marketing year (August '24 – July '25), peanut usage by U.S. manufacturers was reported to be up only 0.9%. We just received data for August '25 usage (the first month of the '25 crop marketing year). Edible peanut usage by U.S. manufacturers was 3.4% lower in August '25 compared to August '24.

Macadamias

Macadamia nut production has experienced steady growth driven by expanding plantations in emerging origins across Africaand China, along with rising consumer demand for healthy snacks and plant-based diets. However, the 2025 outlook has been tempered by significant crop revisions in key producing regions, particularly South Africa and Australia, due to adverse weather and reduced farm inputs.

The 2025 macadamia crop forecasts have been revised downward in major producing countries. South Africa’s crop is now revised to 85,166 MT DNIS, an 8.8% decrease from earlier forecasts by SAMAC, with some on-ground reports indicating production closer to 78,000 MT, comparable to 2024 levels. Australia’s production is projected at around 40,000 MT, a 28% decline from previous estimates, primarily due to persistent rains causing crop damage and delayed harvests. These challenges, combined with reduced use of fertilizers and pesticides and climatic disruptions, are likely to constrain supply growth and impact market dynamics in the near term.​​

• South Africa: South Africa’s 2025 macadamia crop has been revised down to 85,166 tonnes DNIS (from 93,433 tonnes) by SAMAC, due to adverse weather and reduced farm inputs. In KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), flowering was disrupted by a warm autumn. Limpopo experienced cold damage in August 2024, while Mpumalanga faced small nut sizes due to dry, warm conditions and hail damage. Additionally, reduced use of fertilizers and pesticides further impacted yields and quality.​​
  
• Australia: Australia’s 2025 macadamia crop is now projected at around 40,000 tonnes, which is 28% below the earlier forecast of 55,000 tonnes. Persistent rains in key growing regions have caused crop damage and delayed harvests, raising concerns about quality. Farm gate prices opened approximately 20% higher than last year’s lows, driven by a more optimistic kernel outlook.​​​​​ 
  
• Kenya: The first crop harvest is complete, with processors finalizing the last kernel shipments in July/August. Kenya has maintained its ban on NIS exports to support domestic processing this year. Overall, the crop met expectations, and processors are now preparing for the second, smaller crop, which will begin harvesting in September.​​
• China: According to the latest projections from the Chinese government, this year's estimate for dried NIS is 74,500 MT, making China the second-largest macadamia growing region. Harvesting has commenced, and the season is expected to be in full swing by first week of Sep. Initial estimate on the ground looks to be closer to 65,000 MT. We will have a better picture in November once the harvest is over. Growers estimate an improvement in SKR by 1% this year with an avg. around 29%.

Pistachios

Total Shipments for the month were 42.76 million lbs., which is down 36.4% vs last August’s 67.21 million lbs. Year to date shipments finished the year at 938.88 million lbs., which is down 20.5% vs. Last August's 1.18 billion lbs.

• Light shipments are due to limited supply, not weak demand.​
• Final saleable supply for Crop Year 2024 was 1.058 billion lbs., slightly below the 1.065 billion lbs. recorded in Crop Year 2022, the most recent off-year.​
• Despite the tighter supply, total shipments for Crop Year 2024 concluded 4.13% higher than those of Crop Year 2022.

Domestic Shipments for the month were 15.53 million lbs., which is down 16.1% vs last August's 18.51 million lbs. Year to date shipments were 236.78 million lbs., which is down 5.3% vs last August's 250.04 million lbs.​

• Lowest shipments since Crop Year 2019. Looking to bounce back with a large crop coming.​

Export Shipments for the month were 27.22 million lbs., which is down 44.1% vs last August's 48.70 million lbs. Year to date shipments were 702.09 million lbs., which is down 24.6% vs last August's 932.01 million lbs.​

• Total exports finished up 7.6% compared to the previous off-year (Crop Year 2022), which totaled 652.48 million lbs.
• Shipments to China ended the year 50% lower year-over-year, but only 5% below levels seen in Crop Year 2022.​
• India and Vietnam saw strong year-end growth, up 10% and 51% respectively vs. Crop Year 2023, while EU shipments declined modestly by 6%.​
• If domestic consumption remains poor for Crop Year 2025, increased demand from major export markets will be critical to offset decreased US demand.

Inventory

• 119.58 million lbs. of estimated carryover. The final carryover number for Crop Year 2024 will be announced at a later date.
• If this carryover number holds true, this will position the industry positively going into the impending large crop.​