Global Nuts Market & Crop Update

Almonds

The Almond Board released the September Position Report on Thursday, October 9th. This is the second report for the 2025 crop. Receipts in September were 733.36 million lbs., down 1.6% from last September’s receipts of 744.94 million lbs.​

Shipments:
Total shipments for the month were 197.26 million lbs., coming in above industry expectations of 190 million lbs. This shipment number is down 7.6% vs. last September’s 213.56 million lbs. Shipments have started off slow like last year as a lower carryout drives increased pressure on early shipments. This still however puts pressure on CA to pick up the pace quickly in October and November as more early harvest product becomes available for shipment.​

Domestic shipments were 49.52 million lbs., down 11.5% vs. last year’s 55.94 million lbs. While the ~50 million lbs. shipment level for domestic is disappointing, it has become the norm for this region. It has not broken out of this range since March of the 24-crop year and is showing no signs of doing so. Discussions on possible Christmas demand increases remain but is not something that the industry can count on at this point.​​

Export shipments were 147.74 million lbs., which is down 6.3% vs. last year’s 157.62 million lbs. Overall shipments were down in most regions, this was especially to be expected in India as this market has largely stayed off the market for the past 2 months hoping for cheaper pricing. Japan was up for the month to bring their YTD total closer to last year’slevel. The large surprise in export shipments was Europe. Last year they largely relied on European origins for early consumption but have come back to the US origin for early shipments this year and are currently up 24% YTD.​

Sales & Commitments:

Sales for the month were 219.54 million lbs., down 19.7% vs. last year’s sales of 273.38 million lbs. CA largely slow rolled the September sales period as poor crop news rolled in post the 3.0 billion lbs. objective estimate. This poor crop news largely turned out to be correct as the crop is trending 2.6 to 2.7 billion lbs. Even with the slower sales period CA still was able to cross the 200 million lbs. sales number which is positive for the industry showing both buyers and sellers willing to confirm business as pricing rose throughout the month.  ​

Commitments for the 2025 crop year stand at 548.94 million lbs., down 17.7% vs the 667.39 million lbs. from last year. Both export and domestic commitments remain below last year’s levels. We believe this is largely due to pricing rubber banding multiple times over the last few months due to conflicting crop estimates and news. This has made buyers unsure globally on what pricing is likely to stick and freezing them to inaction on booking large additional volumes. Regardless, both buyers and sellers need to conclude more business in the coming months as both sides are behind on sales for anything farther out than a few months of shipments. 

Uncommitted 2025 crop inventory sits at 552.34 million lbs. which is up 18.1% vs. last year’s 467.75 million lbs. This number will continue to change rapidly as more new crop receipts come in. 

Cashews

The cashew season for northern hemisphere has come to an end. Based on the export numbers at the end of July, overall volume looks higher by 10% as compared to LY for northern hemisphere crops. A major portion of exportable volume has been shipped by end of July to destination markets, which thereby has improved availability of raw nut for processing in India/Vietnam.​​ 

Processing is at its peak in Asia & Africa in Q3 and we will see an increase in kernel export volumes in coming months to fulfill existing contracts. EU, China & Middle East has bought more aggressively this year, which has depleted the pipeline inventories for H1 2025. US imports were also higher until Q2, but we have seen a gradual decline in overall imports due to higher tariffs and uncertainty in demand due to increase in costs. 

India demand is sluggish from July onwards but is expected to pick up from the end of October as the festival season starts. Europe and China are expected to be stable in their demand for Q4. For US, we should expect further drop in demand as the new prices for snack nuts will be declared, adjusting for tariff impacts.

With stronger Euro, we have seen activity from European markets even during the holiday season. Buyers have covered their partial requirements and looking for cover for far forward when suitable pricing is available.

Hazelnuts

Harvests across both regions have now been completed, and we have received material from nearly all growing areas. In October, demand for hazelnuts declined significantly across all categories following the price peak in September, which exceeded $18/kg. Over the past two to three weeks, prices have shown a steady downward trend as supply continues to improve while demand remains sluggish​. ​

Supply

• Crop Estimate: Most market analysts now believe the crop size in Turkey to be close to the 550K mark. This is better than some conservative estimates previously being circulated.
• Chile crop has crossed 110K MT (up from 65K) and has provided some cushion for the largest buyer. US crop too is seeming very good and is expected to cross 100K MT. Italian crop on the other hand has had similar issues to that of Turkey – drought in particular, leading to lower yields.​
• Crop Quality: As we receive more material across regions, we see 2 distinct concerns in the crop quality​.
  • The 13–15 ratio, especially in the Akçakoca region, is extremely low — dropping from around 45% to as low as 20%. Availability of 13–15 and 13–14 grades in the second half of the season may therefore be limited.​
  • Insect damage has increased significantly, contrary to expectations. Last year’s already below-average crop had damage levels of around 10–12%, while this year’s crop shows around 18%. This will likely lead to higher selection losses and, consequently, increased processing costs.
• Supply Outlook: Over the past 2–3 weeks, we have observed a significant improvement in supply, which has contributed to easing prices. The market has seen an influx of offers from the US and Georgia, which has reduced demand for the relatively more expensive Turkish origin. As a result, prices for Turkish origin have also come down.​

Demand

• Buyer Behavior:
  • The largest buyer has been watching from the sidelines in Turkey so far, thanks to the cushion from other origins like Chile. This has led to some frustration for hoarders, who now have to liquidate a portion of their stocks to cover for the high interest cost. We expect the largest buyer to cover from Turkey soon.
  • Larger industrial buyers have mostly covered Q4 and early Q1 needs, and many continue to cover their needs as supply has improved.
  • We see retail and smaller confectioners keeping their hands off any hazelnuts buying. We expect this demand to be completely wiped out for the season. Some demand is getting deferred, where larger buyers are preferring to source in shorter cycles, and carrying lower inventory at their end.  ​
• Domestic Market: Still sluggish, with many reducing annual tender volumes. Higher prices are expected to decrease the domestic demand further.
• Turkish exports have fallen significantly this season (24K) compared to last season (49K). We see retail and smaller confectioners keeping their hands off any hazelnuts buying. We expect this demand to be completely wiped out for the season. Some demand is getting deferred, where larger buyers are preferring to source in shorter cycles, and carrying lower inventory at their end. 
• Market Outlook:
  • Supply Balance: Despite Turkey’s lower crop, adequate overall supply is expected, supported by carryover, better crops in other origins and reduction in demand. We also believe the prices are still at unreasonably high levels despite coming off 15-20% from the peak in early September. ​​ ​
  • Price Trends: Prices climbed to the all-time peak of 720 TL/kg - almost 18 $/kg by mid-September, albeit with very thin trading volume. Prices have eased to below 640 TL/kg, around 15.5 $/kg - but still at multi year highs. The market is showing signs of stabilization at these levels as trades have increased.​​
  • Forward View: Most larger confectioners seem to have bitten the bullet and covered at least for their immediate needs. The largest buyer is also expected to enter soon, supporting prices for the near future. On a longer term though, the supply-demand gap will widen in favor of the supply, and gradually prices should further come off the multi-year highs.​ Post January/February, all eyes will turn to development of the next season's crop.​​

Peanuts

Due to the on-going government shutdown, current reports reflecting crop progress, crop conditions, graded tons, supply, and demand are not available. The last such reports were published at the end of September, prior to the shutdown. 

Based on industry estimates, harvest is likely somewhere in the range of +/- 75% complete. A late-season "flash drought" in the southeast negatively impacted quality and yields in a number of areas across the region. The greatest impact is being felt on peanuts planted between May 10 – May 31, which represents the heart of planting season in the southeast. Aflatoxin will be more prevalent in the '25 crop than recent years and will present substantial challenges throughout the marketing year. While the prevalence doesn't appear to be as great as what was found in the 2019 crop, it is likely to be impactful. Yields are being negatively impacted in a number of areas in the southeast as well. Overall U.S. crop production is still expected to be substantial, possibly a record high, but it will be somewhat lower than originally anticipated. Most seem to feel that final production will land between 3.5 - 3.6 million tons.  For reference, the record high production in the U.S. is 3.557 million tons back in 2017.​ 

Due primarily to the quality related concerns of the crop, kernel prices have slightly firmed. When offered, Runner Splits are in the range of $0.47 - $0.48, Runner Mediums $0.48 - $0.49, and Runner Jumbos $0.49 - $0.50. These prices would be for negative aflatoxin, APSA spec material. Tighter spec material is priced higher, if offered at all. Blanched Jumbos seem to be in the range of $0.63 - $0.64, with Blanched Splits near $0.60. If the concerns regarding aflatoxin and quality continue to increase, prices may do the same, at least to some degree. Time will tell. ​

Macadamias

Macadamia nut production continues to expand globally, driven by increasing consumer demand for healthy snacks and plant-based diets, alongside growing plantations in emerging regions such as Africa and China. However, the 2025 outlook is mixed, with significant downward revisions in key producing countries like South Africa and Australia due to adverse weather conditions and reduced farm inputs, while China and Kenya show more stable or improving trends.

The 2025 macadamia crop forecasts have been revised downward in major origins. South Africa’s crop is now revised to 85,166 MT DNIS, an 8.8% decrease from earlier forecasts by SAMAC, with some field reports suggesting output closer to 78,000 MT - comparable to 2024 levels. Australia’s production is expected to reach around 40,000 MT, a 28% decline from initial forecasts, primarily due to persistent rains causing crop damage and delayed harvests. These challenges, compounded by reduced use of fertilizers and pesticides, are likely to constrain global supply and influence market dynamics in the short term.​​

• South Africa: The 2025 macadamia crop has been revised down to 85,166 tonnes DNIS (from 93,433 tonnes) by SAMAC, due to adverse weather and reduced farm inputs. In KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), flowering was disrupted by a warm autumn. Limpopo experienced cold damage in August 2024, while Mpumalanga faced small nut sizes due to dry, warm conditions and hail damage. Additionally, reduced use of fertilizers and pesticides further impacted yields and quality.​​
  
• Australia: Australia’s 2025 macadamia crop is now projected at around 40,000 tonnes, which is 28% below the earlier forecast of 55,000 tonnes. Extended wet weather in key growing regions, especially NSW, led to crop damage and delayed harvests, raising concerns over kernel recovery. Despite this, young orchards performed well, and farm gate prices opened about 20% higher than last year, supported by a more optimistic kernel outlook.
  
• Kenya: The first harvest concluded with final kernel shipments completed by July/August. The country upheld its ban on NIS exports to promote domestic processing. Overall, the crop met expectations, and processors are now wrapping up processing the second, smaller harvest that started in September. Crack-out rates and kernel styles remained consistent with historical norms, and rainfall forecasts for Q4 2025 suggest a solid setup for the 2026 crop.​​​
• China: Latest government projections estimate 74,500 MT of dried NIS, positioning China as the second-largest macadamia producer. Harvesting began in August and peaked by early September. On-ground estimates suggest production closer to 65,000 MT, with final figures expected by November. Growers anticipate a 1% improvement in SKR, averaging around 29%, and the season is expected to surpass 100,000 MT in-shell at 3.5% moisture content.

Pistachios

Total Shipments for the month were 61.84 million lbs. which is up 13.4% vs last September’s 54.51 million lbs.​

• Total shipments for September are up 1.2% vs Crop Year 2023 (previous on year).​

Domestic Shipments for the month were 19.77 million lbs. which is down 8.3% vs last September’s 21.57 million lbs.​​

• Domestic shipments saw a 17% decrease on open inshell but a 7.5% increase on kernels showing that the US consumers preference is continually changing from open inshell to kernels.

Export Shipments for the month were 42.07 million lbs. which is up 27.7% vs last September's 32.94 million lbs.​

• China shipments totaled 469,885 lbs., an 88% decrease from 3.78 million lbs. last September.​
• Hong Kong recorded shipments of 4.45 million lbs., a 781% increase compared to 482,000 lbs. last year September.​
• Vietnam saw shipments at 5.32 million lbs., a 57% increase from 3.40 million lbs., last September.​
  • The surge in shipments to Hong Kong and Vietnam is likely attributed to the current geopolitical situation between the US and China, which prohibits trade.
• MENA region shipments reached 7.14 million lbs., up 43% from 4.98 million lbs. the previous September.​
• The UAE led MENA growth with 2.89 million lbs., compared to 845,000 lbs. last September.​
  • Growth in the UAE is likely driven by increased demand for product intended to be processed to make kernels.​
• EU shipments totaled 17.82 million lbs., marking a 30% increase from 13.72 million lbs. last September.​
• India shipments totaled 260,000 lbs., down 64% from 715,500 lbs. last year.

Inventory

• 114.58 million lbs. is the carryover from Crop Year 2024, which is down 37.9% vs last crop year’s carryover of 184.61 million lbs.
  • This carryover reduction positions the industry positively going into the current on year for Crop Year 2025.​

Receipts

• As of September 30th, harvest was estimated to be 75%-85% complete with crop receipts totaling 1.27 billion lbs., including:
  • 1.06 billion lbs. of Open Inshell
  • 143.3 million lbs. of Closed Shell
  • 68.16 million lbs. of Shelling Stock
  • The final crop size will be confirmed in November or December, but the industry is expected to have a clear estimate with the release of the October shipment report next month.