Global Nuts Market & Crop Update

Almonds

California finally found fall. Temperatures throughout the growing region are getting down into the high 40’s in the morning, but still managing to reach up to 80 degrees during the day. The trees are beginning to sense the change, and leaves are starting to drop. Growers will give their trees a good dose of irrigation and post-harvest fertilization before the winter sets in and the trees go dormant. 

The warm fall harvest has come in at a rapid pace, with almonds no sooner hitting the ground before they are being picked up. Most huller/shellers are expecting to be done with processing by the end of November and are currently more than halfway done at this point. 

In the meantime, crop receipts by comparison to a year ago are up 65.5% to 1.04 billion pounds. Last year, by stark contrast, we were sitting at 625.40 million pounds received. This has made it a bit more complicated to precisely understanding where yields will be compared to the Objective Estimate of 2.80 billion pounds. Most of California believes the crop will fall short of the estimate. We continue to see a firming market as growers are reluctant to get too far down the road. Yet new crop sales in September were very strong, with 273.38 million pounds sold, that should translate to strong shipments for the fourth quarter.

Domestic shipments stumbled in September, down 11%, with 55.94 million pounds shipped vs. last year’s 62.84 million pounds. This was likely a function of a low carry-out and lack of availability of more popular varieties and sizes needed for the domestic market.  

Export shipments were stronger with 157.62 million pounds shipped, up a modest 1.8% versus a year ago 154.82 million pounds. While only up slightly, exports during this period were especially impressive as they were mainly comprised of nonpareil while the pollinators were still being harvested.  

Domestic commitments trail last year, down 18.80% at 211.33 million pounds with a year ago being at 260.26 million pounds. Two things possibly at play, sellers not selling, and buyers not buying.  Whereas Export commitments are up 10.20% at 456.06 million pounds with a year ago being at 413.86 million. Both markets remain uncovered past December, so we will see stronger sales continue in the months ahead, and once the crop is more revealed, everyone will come to the table. 

Cashews

In-shells:

• Southern hemisphere crops are in harvest and Tanzania conducted the first auctions in the last few days.​
• Overall: Tanzanian crop seems to be good so far, with about 100,000 tons auctioned. Prices started very high but have now dropped to be in line with overall market.​
• Despite the fall in Tanzania, kernels are still at disparity with inshells. Kernel prices must go up or inshell pricing must come down further.​
• The pace of further auction will depend on the pace of harvest. Our information from people on the ground seem to indicate the crop will be lower than projection as the second and third flushes are not looking good.​
• We anticipate 140,000 tons of first flush (which is looking good). We will only know the reality of the crop after another 50,000 tons of auctions.​
• Vietnamese demand for inshells looks firm as the residual inshell stocks are at all-time low. ​
• Indian inshell demand is soft, which explains the lower prices in Tanzania.
• Kernel demand is soft. The main driver of demand currently is from Chinese New Year and Christmas demand. None of these have surprised markets this year to cause a change in kernel prices. ​

Hazelnuts

Supply Side:

• The 2024-25 season has been progressing for the last couple of months. Though the overall crop size seems to be adequate, the crop quality has been sub-par, especially in defects due to insects. It was expected the quality will improve as harvests from higher altitudes are received – however the news remains disappointing. ​
• Due to the sub-par quality, we have observed a large variance in the raw material price depending on the quality. ​
• The TMO had announced a price of TL 260/kg, which translated close to 8 $/kg – a significant increase over past years. The largest buyer too announced a price closer to these levels and has been sourcing actively for the past month. It is estimated that it has sourced more than 2/3rd of its requirement. ​

Demand side:

• Overall demand looks steady. We have witnessed many tender volumes drop against last season. Turkey exports for the last season crossed 300K, indicating overall demand is steady, but more spread out. The current season exports are better than previous year, but predominantly due to the largest buyer being more active.​
• The trend of buying only for short/medium term continues, as demand concerns continue for longer period. We do expect spot buying to continue for the rest of September and October.​

Overall:

• We foresee a firm market in the next few weeks, as the largest buyer stays active, while other larger buyers are covering their requirements. ​
• Overall long term supply remains adequate, and demand indicators are weak. We can expect some correction later during the season, before news of the next season crop takes center stage.​

Peanuts

The 2024 U.S. crop harvest is just over halfway complete. Overall, the crop condition is reported as being in good to fair condition, but we are seeing some quality and yield issues. Aflatoxin and immature kernels have been detected in some of the crop so far, and yields are coming in well below average. USDA’s October report estimated 3.22M tons (down 171,550 tons from their original estimate in August) and a 3683 lb/ac yield (down 207 lbs/ac from Aug).  Though it is still too early to know what the final production number will be, a 3.2M crop is in no way excessive with a 741K ton 2023 crop carry in, and could in fact cause a very tight transition into 2025 crop next Fall.  ​

In light of the aforementioned details, prices for U.S. kernels have been ticking up a few cents in the last week or two.  This recent information has also brought some buyers to the table in an effort to add more coverage (or for some, initial coverage) before prices rise any higher.  Product through the end of the year is almost impossible to find.  Prices for APSA, negative afla kernels have risen from mid to upper $0.50’s to the upper $0.50’s / low $0.60’s (or higher, depending on spec), with limited offers.

Macadamias

The macadamia market has been calm, as buyers in Europe and the U.S. have secured enough stock to meet their short-term needs. With kernel demand being strong this year and a crop shortfall in key production areas (particularly South Africa & Australia), a shortage may emerge in Dec-Feb period given the next big crop cycle is months away. The carry forward inventory for next year is poised to be very low as a result.​

After a year of strong growth, kernel prices have stabilized in last few weeks, likely because most processors are completing their commitments and kernels are available in most destination markets. ​

• South Africa: South Africa has faced a slight decline in macadamia production this year, with the forecast at 76,753 MT, a 3.7% decrease from last year & 12% reduction from projected levels in the start of season. This reduction is primarily due to heavy rains earlier in the season and subsequent cooler summer conditions, which have negatively affected nut size and yield quality in several regions.
• Australia: Australia is completing their harvest with an expected 5.0% increase in production form last year, forecasted at 50,830 MT which is still lower than initial projections. Despite challenges such as prolonged heat and wet weather in key growing regions, conditions improved towards the end of the season which has supported most growers.​
• Kenya: Kenya’s production also was lower than projection in the big crop @ 44,000 MT, a 3.5% increase from last year. Since the lift of export ban on NIS late last year, China has been actively buying NIS in the region which has led to NIS prices soaring leading to processors reducing their capacity. Kernel exports have been lower this year as a result. Recent news suggest that government has extended the lift on NIS ban for another 6 months which is likely to impact kernel exports from Kenya in the next big crop season if prices don’t support.

Pistachios

New Crop Year for pistachios has started with crop receipts of 934 million lbs and a carry in of 184 million lbs from previous crop. Overall gross inventory stands at 1.12 billion lbs and post adjustment of shrinkage and other losses, available inventory stands at 1.02 billion lbs. Compared to previous year crop, overall volumes reduced by 32%. This year is classified as ‘off year’ for Pistachios [Pistachio trees are alternate bearing, producing a large crop one year and smaller crop in the next].​

A total of 54 million lbs were shipped in September, with 33 million lbs exported and 21 million lbs of domestic shipments. While domestic shipments recorded a growth of +7.4% YoY basis; export shipments shrunk by -19.7% YoY basis. EU accounts for 41.6% of exports, followed by Asia with 34.0% exports. Germany, Vietnam, China, Spain, and Canada are key export destinations. ​