Global Nuts Market & Crop Update

Almonds

The Almond Board released the October Position Report on Thursday, November 13th. This is the third report for the 2025 crop. Receipts in October were 705.82 million lbs., down 12.9% from last October’s receipts of 810.28 million lbs.​

Shipments:
Total shipments for the month were 249.23 million lbs., coming in under industry expectations of 255 million lbs. This shipment number is down 3.6% vs. last October’s 258.44 million lbs. Shipments have picked up pace after their slow start to the year but we are starting to see clear divides in buying strategies leading to clear differentiation in shipments between regions.​​

Domestic shipments for the month were 48.22 million lbs., down 28.5% vs. last year’s 67.44 million lbs. The trend of near ~50 million lbs. for the domestic market continues. With now 9 months of shipments near these levels, we don’t expect shipments to jump out of this range any time soon.​​​

Export shipments for the month were 201.01 million lbs., which is up 5.2% vs. last year’s 191.00 million lbs. While export shipments were up overall this month, it was largely driven by the European market along with some help from Japan. Europe has bought more product earlier this year than last year as they relied on the local Spanish crop more heavily for their early production needs last year. With the remaining export markets now so far down, we expect shipments in these regions needing to catch up over the next few months.  ​​

Sales & Commitments:

Sales for the month were 261.82 million lbs., down 1.1% vs. last year’s sales of 264.74 million lbs. This came in above industry expectations of 250 million lbs. Once again California had strong sales even while pricing increased throughout the month. This shows that while pricing is higher than where the market was post the objective estimate, buyers continue to buy and do not have the ability to wait on the sidelines any longer. It also shows that sellers continue to support the market while participating at every level as the market has moved up. We expect these habits to continue from both ends in the coming months. ​​

Commitments for the 2025 crop year stand at 561.53 million lbs., down 16.6% vs the 673.69 million lbs. from last year. Export and domestic commitments remain far behind vs. last year. This matches up with both buyers and sellers strategies over the last few months of buying and selling hand to mouth. This strategy will continue to keep both buyers and sellers active month to month which will help keep pricing relatively stable pending any large shocks on crop receipts in the next few months. 

Uncommitted 2025 crop inventory sits at 982.23 million lbs. which is down 1.5% vs. last year’s 997.09 million lbs. This number will continue to change rapidly as more new crop receipts come in.

Cashews

The cashew season for Southern hemisphere has started and the crop looks better than last year. Last year Tanzania crop was 420K MT and for FY 2026, the crop projections are expected to be 500K+ MT. Mozambique crop is also expected to be higher than last year and the crop growth is projected at 15%. 

As all Northern hemisphere crop volume has reached destinations and has been well consumed, we still see a good demand for the RCN. This continuous demand of RCN is supported by higher kernel export volumes from Vietnam and higher consumption in India as compared to last year.​

Processing volume continues to be stable in Asia & Africa. Removal of tariffs from US on raw cashew kernels has given spurt in overall demand sentiment, which is driving the spot prices upwards. YTD Vietnam exports are higher by 3% as compared to last year, mainly driven by China, Middle East and EU. 

US had been maintaining thin stock pipelines from the last 2 quarters due to higher raw material import cost (tariff impact), but with the removal of reciprocal tariffs, buyers are back in the market with inquiries, assuming growth in domestic consumption post duty exemption benefit.​

Indian kernel demand for domestic market was strong in festival season and hence RCN inventory on spot is low and urging more interest for Indian buyers to participate in Tanzania auctions. European markets showing consistent buying interest for forwards on the back of stronger Euro. ​

Hazelnuts

The Turkish market has finally begun to show signs of fatigue through October and early November, leading to along-anticipated softening in prices—though levels remain at multi-year highs. As anticipated, the largest buyer commenced sourcing in November, prompted by the Competition Authority to publicly remind the largest buyer's purchasing commitments in Turkey. However, the offered price is below market expectations, causing disappointment among those holding inventory in hopes of higher levels. ​

Supply

• Carryover Stocks: Estimated at 150,000–170,000 MT in Turkey. A lot of the previous season crop has been traded in Sep-Oct.​
• Crop Estimate: The Ministry of Agriculture had projected the crop at 464,000 metric tons (MT) of inshells. In contrast, the exporters’ association estimated a significantly higher figure of 601,000 MT. INC has recently published a revised figure of 500K. Most market analysts refer to the actual crop size being closer to 550,000 MT. Quality of the crop is questionable, with larger portion of lower caliber, and high damage due to insects​.
• Chile crop has crossed 110K MT (up from 65K) and has provided some cushion for the largest buyer. US crop too seems very good and is expected to cross 100K MT. Italian crop on the other hand has had similar issues to that of Turkey – drought in particular, leading to lower yields.​
• A news report circulating that the largest buyer has alternatives to Turkey origin had caused some of the hoarders to release their inventories, thus improving the supply in early October-November. However, the competition authority in Turkey publicly reminded the largest buyer of their commitments and has prompted the largest buyer to source sizable quantity in the last few weeks.​
• Supply Outlook: We have seen intermittent supply – improving as prices are stable and shrinking if prices fall. Overall, a better supply in the past 4-6 weeks has resulted in prices falling from its peak of around 18 $/kg in September to around 15 $/kg. In shell supply is adequate, but kernel supply is still limited​. 

Demand

• Buyer Behavior:
  • The largest buyer has been watching from the sidelines in Turkey so far, thanks to the cushion from other origins like Chile. It has started sourcing in Turkey in November, and indications are it has covered the mandatory 30K inshells by end of November. Indications are that it would pause the sourcing in December, only to resume in the new year for its kernel requirements​.
  • Most large industrial buyers have covered Q1 and partially Q2 needs, and many continue to cover their needs further as supply has improved. Exporters and importers are both reluctant to trade material beyond Q2., owing to volatility in supply and concerns on consumer demand.
  • Mid-and small-sized buyers, especially in retail and confectionery, are still covering hand to mouth, creating some short term demand. However, we have seen a significant fall in call-offs indicating end consumers are unwilling to accept very high Hazelnut price levels.
• Domestic Market: Still extremely sluggish, with many buyers reducing annual tender volumes significantly.
• Turkish exports have fallen significantly this season (45K) compared to last season (98K) as of November 28th – clearly indicating falling demand at current price levels. The market now expects yearly exports to fall below 250K MT (against 300K average) for the current crop season.
• Market Outlook:
  • Despite Turkey’s below-average crop, global Hazelnut supply remains sufficient as supply improves, and demand decreases. Prices reached record highs in mid-September but have started to soften. November prices have remained stable with supply matching the short-medium term demand. We do not see a large downside or upside to the market. Next triggers will be in the new year once the weather effect for the next season takes center stage. ​​

Peanuts

Due to the extended government shutdown, most of the usual industry reports relating to crop progress, supply, demand, graded tons, etc are either not available or do not contain up to date information. We're hopeful that USDA will resume issuing reports with regular frequency in December.​

While a few late harvested tons are still being delivered, the 2025 crop peanut harvest is essentially complete. In the November 2025 Crop Production Report, USDA estimates that US peanut production will reach 3.735 million tons when the dust settles. If achieved, this would be a record high. While overall production will be significant, most feel it will fall a bit short of the USDA estimate. As of December 1st, a total of 3.35 million tons have been graded. Final crop production is likely to fall somewhere closer to 3.6 million tons when all is said and done. This would still be a record high production for the US. The primary concern at the moment is related to aflatoxin. Aflatoxin is much more prevalent in the 2025 crop than what has been seen with peanut crops in recent years. The exact extent of the problem is still to be determined, but it's safe to say that the impact could be significant, particularly to shellers (due to increased handling costs) and to some buyers with extremely tight aflatoxin specs.​​ 

After firming by a couple of cents last month, kernel prices have remained relatively steady of late. Runner Splits are still available in the $0.47 range, with Runner Mediums at $0.48 and Runner Jumbos in the $0.49 - $0.51 range. Blanched Jumbo Runners are priced in the low to mid $0.60's, with Blanched Runner Splits available in the upper $0.50's to near $0.60. 

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Macadamias

Macadamia nut production continues to expand globally, driven by increasing consumer demand for healthy snacks and plant-based diets, alongside growing plantations in emerging regions such as Africa and China. However, the 2025 outlook is mixed, with significant downward revisions in key producing countries like South Africa and Australia due to adverse weather conditions and reduced farm inputs, while China and Kenya show more stable or improving trends.

The 2025 macadamia crop forecasts have been revised downward in major origins. South Africa’s crop is now revised to 85,166 MT DNIS, an 8.8% decrease from earlier forecasts by SAMAC, with some field reports suggesting output closer to 78,000 MT - comparable to 2024 levels. Australia’s production is expected to reach around 40,000 MT, a 28% decline from initial forecasts, primarily due to persistent rains causing crop damage and delayed harvests. These challenges, compounded by reduced use of fertilizers and pesticides, are likely to constrain global supply and influence market dynamics in the short term.​​

• South Africa: The 2025 macadamia crop has been revised down to 85,166 tonnes DNIS (from 93,433 tonnes) by SAMAC, due to adverse weather and reduced farm inputs. In KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), flowering was disrupted by a warm autumn. Limpopo experienced cold damage in August 2024, while Mpumalanga faced small nut sizes due to dry, warm conditions and hail damage. Additionally, reduced use of fertilizers and pesticides further impacted yields and quality.​​
  
• Australia: Australia’s 2025 macadamia crop is now projected at around 40,000 tonnes, which is 28% below the earlier forecast of 55,000 tonnes. Extended wet weather in key growing regions, especially NSW, led to crop damage and delayed harvests, raising concerns over kernel recovery. Despite this, young orchards performed well, and farm gate prices opened about 20% higher than last year, supported by a more optimistic kernel outlook.
  
• Kenya: The first harvest concluded with final kernel shipments completed by July/August. The country upheld its ban on NIS exports to promote domestic processing. Overall, the crop met expectations, and processors are now wrapping up processing the second, smaller harvest that started in September. Crack-out rates and kernel styles remained consistent with historical norms, and rainfall forecasts for Q4 2025 suggest a solid setup for the 2026 crop.​​​
• China: Latest government projections estimate 74,500 MT of dried NIS, positioning China as the second-largest macadamia producer. Harvesting began in August and peaked by early September. On-ground estimates suggest production closer to 65,000 MT, with final figures expected by November. Growers anticipate a 1% improvement in SKR, averaging around 29%, and the season is expected to surpass 100,000 MT in-shell at 3.5% moisture content.

Pistachios

Total Shipments for the month were 134.10 million lbs., up 24.3% vs last October’s 107.91 million lbs. ​

• Total shipments for Year-To-Date are 197.18 million lbs., up 21.4% vs last October’s 162.42 million lbs.
• Year-To-Date shipments are up 8.7% vs previous year’s (Crop Year 2023) level of 181.44 million lbs.​​​

Domestic Shipments for the month were 23.18 million lbs., up 11.1% vs last October’s 20.87 million lbs.​​​

• Year-To-Date shipments are 44.20 million lbs., up 4.1% vs last October’s 42.44 million lbs.​
• Domestic shipments Year-To-Date are at their highest level on record.​
• Despite concerns about weak domestic demand across all nut categories, pistachio kernel demand continues to grow, with kernels making up an increasingly larger share of total domestic shipments.​

Receipts currently total 1.57 billion lbs. The October report historically provides a reliable indication of final cropsize. While minor adjustments may appear in the December report, the final crop is expected to remain around 1.57 billion lbs.​