Global Nuts Market & Crop Update

Almonds

Winter has hit California, and we may see our first atmospheric storm of the year. The Pacific Northwest is getting the brunt of this storm (Cyclone Bomb) and California is getting brushed by the storms tail. As almond trees move to dormancy at this point, the heavy rain expected will be excellent for the soil. The extended forecast shows rain over the next ten days on and off.

Last week’s October position report, released by the Almond Board of California, shows crop receipts by comparison to a year ago are up 38.3% at 1.85 billion pounds. Last year, we were sitting at 1.33 billion pounds received. This may be one of the fastest harvests seen since the crops grew into the multi-billion of pounds of production. Huller/sheller capacity has never been stronger either as infrastructure has finally caught up to meet capacity needs. Of course, with the hot July/ August we had, it was critical to harvest and pick up quickly. The

combination of the two has accelerated crop receipts to date. Most of California still believes the crop will fall short of the 2.8 billion pound estimate. We continue to see a firming market as growers are reluctant to sell too far forward. New crop sales in October were very strong, with 264.74 million pounds sold. Just in the last two months alone sales have been over 538 million pounds, only adding to the firmness.

Domestic shipments were superb, up 18.2%, with 67.44 million pounds shipped vs. last year’s 57.05 million pounds. Again, adding to grower confidence as sales and shipments are very strong. 

Export shipments were flat with 191 million pounds shipped, up a modest 0.3% versus a year ago 190.35 million pounds. While only up slightly, exports during this period were especially impressive as they were mainly comprised of Inshell, standards and a little bit of pollinators. Export is always about timing, and it is expected that many remain uncovered. We could see export shipments pick up in the weeks ahead as destination stocks are depleted.

Commitments are a function of timing as well. The industry stands at 674 million pounds, slightly down .56% vs last year’s 677.5 million lbs. The export market coverage appears to be

better than the domestic market from a historical perspective. This is a result of growers not willing to sell further out positions and a strategy of covering a quarter at a time. With uncommitted inventory sitting at 997 million pounds, up 32.4% vs. last year’s 753.3 million pounds, we will probably see this number continue to rise as more of the harvest comes in
this month and the next.

Land IQ’s Final Acreage Report was posted this week. The report shows bearing acreage revised upward to 1.383 million acres with 30,515 acres identified as abandoned, leading to a final bearing acreage estimate of 1.35 million acres. This would be roughly 20,000 acres down vs. the initial estimate of 2024, which remained unchanged vs. the 2023 crop. The nonbearing acres also came down from 189,000 acres in 2023 to 143,000 acres for 2024, another significant decrease. We have now seen bearing acreage trending down in California for the first time and this trend is expected to continue for the upcoming 2025 crop.

Cashews

Tanzanian harvest is in the late stages and this year’s auction quantities till date is over 320,000 tons and the receipts at auction warehouse has surpassed 340,000 Tons. This is a record, the crop is likely to end around 365,000 tons (100,000 tons over last year) . The Tanzania crop surplus will make up for a small portion of the West African deficit. Auction prices also dropped from 1st to the last auction, but inshell prices are still higher than kernels. Kernel demand is subdued as most large buyers are well covered. Chinese buying activity was limited as there is not much uncommitted good quality kernels available and any aggression by the Chinese buyers will result in firming up of kernel prices. Indian domestic demand is also subdued.

Hazelnuts

We foresee a firm market in the next few weeks, as the largest buyer stays active, and also that other larger buyers are covering their requirements. Overall long-term supply remains adequate, and demand indicators are weak. We can expect some correction later during the season, before news of the next season crop takes centerstage.

Supply

As highlighted in previous reports, though overall supply for the season is more than adequate, concerns related to the crop quality have weighed on the pricing. We have observed a large variance in the raw material price depending on the quality.

The TMO had announced a price of TL 260/kg, which translated close to 8 $/kg – a significant increase over past years. This formed a baseline price for the season. The largest buyer too announced a price closer to these levels and has been sourcing actively for the past 2 months. It has recently increased its buying price to average 265 TL/kg – around 7,5$/kg, and the market has been hovering around these levels.

Demand
Overall demand looks steady. We have witnessed some tender volumes drop against last season, but most larger buyers are reporting stable demand despite prices of Cocoa and sugar climbing up.
The current season exports are better than previous year, but predominantly due to the largest buyer being more active.
In the past month, many confectionery buyers have covered their Q1-Q2 requirements, and many others continue to do so. With little hope of prices sliding down in the near future, many buyers are biting the bullet and covering their requirements.

Peanuts

Harvest of the 2024 U.S. peanut crop is nearing completion. At the time of this update, harvest is more than 90% complete, at least according to the USDA. As of November 22nd, just over 2.8 million tons of farmerstock have been inspected and graded by USDA Federal State Inspection Service. While overall yields are definitely lower than once anticipated, the overall quality of the crop seems to be relatively good. Aflatoxin levels appear to be lower than last year, at least so far.
The latest crop production report (issued by USDA earlier in November) predicts that overall ’24 crop production will reach 3.256 million tons. However, with the lower yields that are being recorded and with only 2.8 million tons being received and graded as of this time, many believe that final production will fall short of the USDA estimate…maybe landing closer to 3.1 million tons. In any case, it appears that overall industry stocks will continue to be very tight as we move through the ‘24 crop marketing year.

Edible kernel prices have firmed slightly in recent weeks on news of reduced yields and anticipated overall lower production expectations. Initially, ‘24 crop raw redskin kernels began trading in the range of $0.56 - $0.58 but have moved up a few cents now range from $0.60 - $0.63 when / if offered. While it’s not clear at this point if prices will continue to inch higher, there doesn’t seem to be too many factors on the near-term horizon that would cause them to move lower.

Macadamias

The macadamia kernel market was active as buyers in Europe and the US sought spot inventories for holiday demand. With kernel demand being strong this year and a crop shortfall in key production areas (particularly South Africa and Australia), demand is robust in most destination markets as buyers try to cover their needs, given the next big crop cycle is months away. As a result, the carry-forward inventory for next year is poised to be very low. The next big crop will be from April-May 2025.

China has been very active this year, sourcing nut-in-shell from all major origins – Australia, South Africa, and Kenya. Now, with the recent Chinese crop being harvested, they are sufficiently covered for the Chinese New Year, and further demand has ceased. How consumption during this period unfolds will set the base for pricing and demand outlook for the 2025 crop.

• South Africa: SAMAC has revised the crop forecast figure to 83,726 NIS at 1.5% moisture for the second quarter, which is 7% less than the crop forecast figure for quarter one. This reduction is primarily due to heavy rains earlier in the season and subsequent cooler summer conditions, which have negatively affected nut size and yield quality in several regions.
• Australia: Australia completed their season with an expected 5.0% increase in production from last year, forecasted at 56,000 MT, which is still lower than initial projections. Despite challenges such as prolonged heat and wet weather in key growing regions, conditions improved towards the end of the season, which has supported most growers. 
• Kenya: Kenya’s production was also lower than projected in the big crop at 44,000 MT, a 3.5% increase from last year. Since the lift of the export ban on NIS late last year, China has been actively buying NIS in the region, and kernel exports have been lower this year as a result. Recently, the Ministry of Agriculture in Kenya announced a seasonal ban on macadamia harvesting from November 2, 2024, to March 1, 2025. The move is aimed at preventing the export of immature nuts. This means kernel exports from the region cannot be earlier than April-May 2025 but should be of better volume as the nuts will sufficiently
  mature before harvest.

Pistachios

Crop Receipts were revised to 1.11 billion lbs and with a carry in of 184 million lbs from previous crop, gross inventory stands at 1.29 billion lbs. Shrinkage and other losses, results in an adjusted inventory of 1.18 billion lbs. In comparison with previous year, availability is down by -22%. Nut quality, and sizing has improved for majority of the orchards, which has led to lower inshells defects, ergo lower shelling stock [kernels are processed from Shelling stock].

Despite the higher opening prices, US domestic demand remained relatively strong at 42 million lbs, with +2.6% YoY increase. Though, October exports have tripled from previous month with 87 million lbs, overall YTD exports have shrunk by -12%, YoY basis. Major impact is from reduced demand of -64%, YoY in China market. Middle East & Africa sector and Vietnam were few of the strong export markets which recorded growth. Available inventory is around 1.02 billion lbs.