Global Nuts Market & Crop Update

Almonds

Weather throughout the growing region has been favorable thus far through May. However, there was a short heat wave with temperatures reaching 102 degrees in the valley. It is very early for these types of temperatures and hopefully it is not signaling for things to come. If you will recall at the end of the growing season last year, we had a massive heatwave that took with it much of the moisture out of the almonds. This may have been a root cause in the crop being short this year.

The Almond Board released the April position report on May 12, 2025. The crop receipts now rest at 2.708 billion pounds, and still well below the USDA estimate of 2.80 billion pounds. The industry still expects the crop to finish around 2.72 billion pounds. Since the report, the market has remained firm and with scarcity in the most popular grades and sizes, that is not likely to change. The industry will need to have 500 million to 550 million pounds of carry-out to maintain a smoother transition from the current crop to the new crop. ​ ​

Shipments:
Total shipments year to date are at 2.051 billion pounds, about -1.4% below last year at this time. With less overall supply, we may see this trend continue down or have a very difficult transition in September and October. Comparing shipments to previous years at this time may be pointless as conditions are not comparable to previous years with the shortage of overall supply. Currently the average monthly shipments are 228 million pounds. The industry cannot maintain this shipment level without having a great deal of restrictions during that transition period between current crop and new crop.

Domestic shipments were dismal for the month with only 53 million pounds shipped in April, off almost 18% from a year ago. This leaves us down -5.2% for the year and continues with a downward trend we have seen since October (being that last positive month). Meanwhile export shipments remain strong with 188 million pounds shipped in April up 6% to last year, however, are flat to a year ago in total shipments. Nonetheless, market expectations are that export shipments may still end up positive for the crop year as many markets remain uncovered.

Sales in April were below last April’s 218.6 million pounds with 192.5 million pounds down 12% over last year. With that being the case, further comparisons show that this April’s new crop sales was easily the second best for an April. With several crop estimates now being stated amongst the industry pundits for the 2025/2026 crop year averaging 2.7 billion pounds and that of the USDA’s estimate of 2.8 billion pounds, monthly sales should be strong for the remainder of the crop year. With commitments at 525 million pounds, down -5% from last year’s 552.6 million pounds, this seems to reflect domestic uncertainty. Domestic buyers are waiting to see improvements in domestic shipments with increased consumption at retail before we may see stronger commitments from them.

Uncommitted inventory is sitting at 581 million lbs. up 4.3% versus last year at this time. Yet this is a very low uncommitted number to have as we struggle for supply crossing the finish line for this crop year.

Cashews

Approximately 75% of West African crops have flown through, and a major portion of exportable volume has been shipped in May to destination markets. Current crop availability in various origins is dropping gradually as we enter the last leg of the season. Guinea-Bissau/Senegal has started to flow through, and it is the last West African crop available with good quality.​ 

Overall crop volume and quality is better in 2025 as compared to last year. Prices of inshells are softening a bit now as large portion for processing has been covered by Indian and Vietnamese buyers in last few months.​

The export restrictions implemented by Burkina Faso government have been removed and free flow for trade has resumed. Landings for first few shipments have started at destination, which will provide ease of raw material supply for processing. On Kernels, spot inventories in Vietnam remain thin as US buyers had pulled contracts earlier to manage supply during the new tariff situation.

Other Asian markets have maintained an active presence in the market, covering kernels until Q3. China is showing strong buying interest from the start of the season for Cambodian kernels providing liquidity for the large flow of crop. Europe had a balanced coverage in May with few tenders getting closed for kernels. US is less active in forward coverage. The buyers are monitoring the situation of tariffs and is pulling only necessary inventory.

Hazelnuts

Supply

• The market has been jittery since the frost event last month. The market players held varying viewpoints on the extent of damage, and we thus had experienced wide range of prices. The INC, at its Hazelnuts round table at Mallorca announced an estimate of 609K MT inshells for the upcoming crop, (down from 760K previous estimate). Most of the market now seems to have aligned with this estimate.
• On the positive side, crops from Chile, Italy and other smaller growing regions are expected to be better.​
• For the current season, the supply seems adequate, as TMO has released most of its inventory during April​.
• Prices moved up sharply from lower than 300 TL/kg to more than 420 TL/kg, before stabilizing around 400 TL/kg.​
• The stink bug damage seems limited for the time being, as temperatures across the Black Sea region remains temperate, as against an unusually hot spring last year.
• A fruit count exercise will be conducted around end of June – early July which will be a better indicator of the actual crop size.
  

Demand

• The frost scare has had a two-fold effect on the demand. The immediate one was that the players still short on their Q3 requirements scampered to cover their needs. But the longer period coverage will get hit as prices are now well above budgeted levels for most larger buyers.​​​​​
  
• We now expect the wider market to be adequately covered for their Q3 requirements, barring a few retail and mid-small sized confectionery buyers. Though many players are waiting for prices to stabilize to cover for the new crop, we expect demand to increase as prices look to stay firm in the near future.​
  
• Local demand has been extremely sluggish – most retail as well as confectionery buyers have reduced their annual tender volumes​.
• Exports for the year are around 260K, but now the rate is expected to taper off.
  

Our View:

• Prices will continue to stay firm, even though supply is more than adequate. We have witnessed widespread hoarding of stocks. We do not expect a large downside from the current levels.
• ​Ferrero is expected to cover early in the season given a shorter crop and thus prices might hold firm for a longer period.

Peanuts

Planting of the 2025 U.S. peanut crop continues. As of May 25th, the USDA reported that 69% of the crop had been planted. Soil moisture has improved in all planting regions. As a result, only 2% of the peanut-producing area was experiencing drought conditions as of May 27th. This is down from 24% at the end of April.

As a general statement, the kernel market continues to be very quiet. With the increase in U.S. peanut acres (+8% vs last year according to USDA) and the seemingly plentiful peanut supplies globally, buyers are cautious to add additional coverage for both current crop and new crop positions. Demand is also a bit concerning, which is adding to their hesitation. Current crop price indications for all grades (splits, mediums, and jumbos) are in the mid $0.50’s. New crop price indications are a bit lower, now sitting in the lower $0.50’s. It seems likely that price indications will continue to fall within a very narrow range over the next few weeks. The USDA will publish an updated acreage report near the end of June. This report should provide us a more accurate view of exactly how many peanut acres were planted this year.

According to USDA Peanut Stocks & Processing Report, edible peanut usage by U.S. manufacturers continues to lag behind the pace of last year. Crop year to date through April, overall usage is down 1.6% vs the same time last year. Usage in the candy segment is down 7.8%, usage in snacks is up 3.7%, and usage in peanut butter is down 2.1%. This is obviously not a good trend, considering the likelihood of a large crop looming on the horizon in the fall. ​

According to USDA Peanut Stocks & Processing Report, edible peanut usage by U.S. manufacturers is down 1.4% crop year to date vs last year (August – March). Usage in the candy segment is down 8.4%, usage in peanut butter is down 1.9%, and usage in snacks is up 4.6%. ​

Macadamias

The harvesting of nut in-shells is underway in all key origins. Around 50% of the crop has come through in Australia and South/East Africa regions. Australia and some parts of East Africa have witnessed small yield drops compared to forecasts due to weather-related challenges. Delays in harvest due to rains have also caused some drops in quality. There may be a revised crop forecast published in the coming weeks, which can give more accurate numbers on where we stand in terms of supply.

Kernel prices have continued to remain firm in May due to low inventory levels and continued demand across key markets last month, along with some European retailers firming up on annual tender volumes.

Prices for in-shell have increased slightly due to more processors trying to get hold of the early crop, but they may soften once the crop flow increases.

China has just started buying in-shells from the African continent. China was left with a surplus of opening inventory this year, as they had contracted much more than their expected demand and their own crop was sizable. So they are seen to be buying more cautiously this year, as they also have their own crop which will start coming from Aug/Sep. If China’s demand slows, prices of in-shells may soften.

• South Africa: The 2025 macadamia crop in South Africa is expected to increase by 8%, reaching 90,000 MT DNIS compared to last year. The crop flow is promising, and processors began production in April. Strong kernel demand is motivating processors to crack most nuts locally rather than exporting NIS. As the crop flow has increased, we are seeing more NIS offers to other markets like China, which has the largest consumer base for inshell nuts.
  
• Australia: Australia’s macadamia crop for 2025 is projected to grow by 7-8%. Continued rains in major growing areas has caused some crop damage and delayed harvests which has led to quality issues. The farm gate offers for the season are approximately 20% higher than last year’s low due to a stronger kernel outlook compared to 2024. China has reduced their buying of NIS from Australia this year because of the higher prices compared to other origins.​​​ 
  
• Kenya: Harvesting is still underway with almost 70% of crop flown in, and processors started shipments in April. Kenya has managed to uphold its ban on NIS exports to support the local processing industry. The Kenyan macadamia industry faced difficulties in 2024 due to high farm gate prices driven by Chinese demand, resulting in reduced processing volumes and kernel exports. This year’s government measures aim to stabilize the market and protect local processors from external competition. ​​​

Pistachios

Crop Receipts stand at 1.11 billion lbs and with a carry in of 185 million lbs from previous crop, gross inventory stands at 1.29 billion lbs. Additional shrinkage of 30 million lbs from previous month, results in adjusted inventory of 1.11 billion lbs. Low availability overall and even more so for kernel raw material.

Modest slowdown seen in April for both domestic shipments with 17 million lbs [-23% reduction from Mar] and export shipments at 52 million lbs [-17 % reduction from Mar]. Overall steady performance in EU market with 8 million lbs shipped to Germany [50% growth from Mar]. On the contrary, shipments to China only reached 2 million lbs, dropping from 16 million lbs in previous month. Impacted by China shipments, led to underperformance of overall Asia shipments. Remaining availability stands at 427 million lbs, and is expected to ship in next 4 months.​