Global Nuts Market & Crop Update

Almonds

After the snowpack ended January at only 66% to normal, the middle of February through March has really changed and the storm door opened. It has been March Madness in the Sierra’s with back to back to back storms coming through, bringing the current snow pack to 92% over the last two weeks. This means a great deal since California relies on the snowpack for up to 40% of our water supply. With a few more weeks of March still to go, it has turned out to be a significant gain which will help ease water restriction this summer.

With the bloom now behind us, over the next few weeks nutlet growth will be assessed and determination of bud set will be made. It is early butsome growers are concerned with the shortage of healthy bee hives in the orchards and that it may not be as good as it could have been. Overall weather during the bloom was good. However, talk of “bloom density was less than ideal” yet this did vary up and down the state. It appeared to be more prevalent in the south than it was as one moved further north. Again it is very early, but the current mind-set is that the 2025/2026 crop may be closer to this year’s 2.7 billion pound crop than it would to be a record breaker. Time will tell and estimates from pundits will soon begin to be espoused.

Market Update: 
The Almond Board of California released the February positioning report on March 11. This marks the 7th month of the crop year, so we are past the half way point for the current crop year. With that, crop receipts have fallen off the pace compared to last year. With 17 million pounds received in February it brings total receipts now to 2.68 billion pounds. This should bring total crop this year to 2.7 billion pounds off by 100,000 million pounds to the objective estimate and 300 million pounds to the subjective estimate, that’s why they are called estimates. This does suggest that we will have an even tighter transition in August through October than we did last year. We are already seeing shortages of all Cal varieties and sizes. Restrictions of smaller sizes being most prevalent.

Shipments:
February shipments were 215 million pounds, down 2.8% to last year, and below industry expectations of 220 million pounds. As February was a shorter month, look to see March making up for this shortfall. With that said, industry expectations are for a similar shipment month for March staying on the conservative side.

Total shipments are trending to flat to last year overall. However, it may become difficult to maintain this current pace. As inventories are reduced it will be harder and harder to find usable material in the remaining tonnage. 

Domestic shipments were 56 million lbs. down -4.4% to a year ago. Expectations are for shipments to remain in this range throughout the remainder of the crop year averaging just under 60 million pounds a month. Export shipments were at 159 million lbs. also down, - 2.2% vs last year’s 162 million lbs. Export markets continue to purchase hand to mouth, with most uncovered through the second half of the year. Inventories are low and as it becomes more evident that a buying opportunity will most likely not develop, it may be difficult to cover their remaining needs as growers remain reluctant to sell past their comfort zone.

Sales & Commitments: Sales for the month of February were consistent with expectations with 221 million pounds sold. This is up a modest 3 % vs last year. With good bloom weather sellers were willing to offer more with confidence, and buyers were there to fill their needs in the months ahead. This was mainly export markets purchasing in February with transit time in mind. As domestic sales were heavier in January and took more of a wait and see attitude during the bloom. With Commitments at 577 million lbs. down -8.5%, the domestic market remains the least committed. One would believe however, that is more of a function for growers unwillingness to book out long earlier in the crop year. As we have now seen market levels improve, there may be more of a willingness to fill the customer’s remaining needs going forward. While export markets may be in a better situation, their low inventories will force them back to the table with consistent monthly buying.

Finally with Uncommitted inventory sitting at 965 million lbs. up 4% from the 929 million lbs. this same time last year, total uncommitted has dropped below a billion pounds. We may see that uncommitted inventory that remains void of many popular grades and sizes, as it continues to shrink. The industry will try to target a 500 million pound carry-out which appears to already be a challenge when forecasting shipments for the remainder of the year.

Cashews

All West African origins are in middle of the season, and we are about to enter peak flow of the season for 2025. Crop flows are looking decent as expected and overall quality, which has flown through, has been good. Intermittent rains have been observed in all cashew growing countries, which are normally observed during these months of harvesting. Light showers are good for crop, while heavy rains will impact quality.

Prices for inshell have fallen as compared to start of the season but have stabilized in last 2 weeks as buying interest continues to remain firm. Thin inshell inventories at destinations have kept buying activity for inshell on aggressive mode, which has kept prices firm in most of the crop growing countries. Crop flows in Asia have also started and there is a lag of 2 weeks in flows as compared to 2024.

In Kernels, markets were bit active in Europe & US in March, where buyers covered most of their needs for Q2/Q3. China & Middle East continue to stay away from market and there is less/limited interest coming for Q2/Q3.

Hazelnuts

Supply

• The season has now entered the second half. Balance crop estimate in Turkey is around 450K MT, of which around 100K is in the hands of TMO (Mostly old crop). Supply for the remainder of the season looks more than adequate to cater the demand.
• The market believes the largest buyer has now covered its requirements. This will help the market to cool off in a longer term.
• Black Sea Exporter’s association has announced the first crop estimate of 768K MT for the next season based on the flower count. This is lower than the estimate last year, but more than the actual crop for the last 2 years. Historically for the last 3 years, actual crops have been lower than the estimate. This has sent a bullish signal to the market.
• Weather has been volatile in the last few days, leading to some hoarding and reduction in supply. The weather in the highlands has been cold, and some news of frost damage is being circulated.
• No major news of stink bug infestation yet – we will need to observe once the weather gets warmer.
• Political volatility in the last week has resulted in TL depreciating against the USD – if the local prices do not adjust to an extent of the TL fall, the prices should come off a bit and might be a good buying opportunity for anyone not covered yet.

Demand

• The inflation in Europe has eased and is nearing 2%, and the PLR has been cut by 0,5% in the last month. However, overall consumer sentiment remains negative. Buyers are still tending to cover only for shorter periods.​
  
• Prices have come off the year high, but we have not seen a wider interest to cover at current levels. Most small and medium size buyers are preferring to cover at possibly higher rates at a later date, than to carry non-moving stocks.
  
• The larger buyers seem to have covered for the season, but many small/ medium buyers are still covering.
• Turkish exports for the 2023-24 season stand at 193K MT against 174K last year (3rd week Mar) – higher by almost 10%. We believe this does not reflect an increase in demand, but rather an early move by Ferrero to source and export vis-à-vis the previous year.
  

Our View:

• Prices will remain firm until the frost season is seen off. The differential between 11-13 and 9-11 continues to be at record highs, and the paste/diced prices will continue to trade at a discount. Exports might not continue the current trajectory and will soon taper off. If exports do not cross 300K, we will have a significant carry over to the next season.
  
• We would still suggest covering any pending Q3 requirements, as frost/ insect risk is still imminent. For Q4 though, we do believe the prices will slowly taper off during the May-August period.​

Peanuts

The U.S. peanut market has remained very quiet in recent weeks. Demand remains rather sluggish and supplies are sufficient.​​

Crop year to date (August ‘24 – February ‘25), edible peanut usage by U.S. manufacturers is down 2.1% vs. the same period year ago. Exports of U.S. peanuts are down about 20% crop year to date vs year ago. USDA has raised anticipated carryout stocks of ‘24 crop peanuts to 824k tons (an increase of about 13k tons vs prior month). Most still believe that actual carryout stocks will land in the range of 950k+.​

Peanut acreage in the U.S. is expected to increase in 2025. Most believe acres will increase by at least 5% vs last year....maybe more. The USDA will publish the Prospective Plantings Report on 3/31/25, which should directionally provide more insight as to where planted acres might land.​

Prices for current crop edible kernels have changed very little in recent weeks. APSA spec, negative aflatoxin runner grades (splits / mediums / jumbos) are priced in the upper $0.50’s to near $0.60. Blanched jumbos are priced in the mid $0.70’s, with blanched splits offered in the low $0.70’s. The market for ‘25 crop edible kernels (shipping Oct / Nov forward) is slightly weaker, with prices in the range of $0.55 - $0.58 depending on grade and spec. New crop blanched jumbos are available in the low $0.70’s, with blanched splits priced in the upper $0.60’s.​

Macadamias

Kernel prices have continued to remain stable recently due to low inventory levels and sustained demand across key markets. Tenders for large retailers have been rolled out. Kernel market saw prices move up by 30% in the SH of 2024 due to a short crop and strong demand on kernels from key destination markets and NIS from China. But since then prices have softened with the new crop approaching and forecasted at 10% higher compared to previous year.

In 2024 China was actively sourcing NIS from major origins like Australia, South Africa, and Kenya that moved the market up. In 2025, with the Chinese New Year nearly a month later than in 2024, and China entering the year with good inventory levels, they are not aggressively seeking new inshell supplies. Given China’s significant role as a global macadamia importer, their demand in the coming months could significantly influence market prices in coming months.

• South Africa: South Africa anticipates a 10% increase in its 2025 macadamia crop (93,433 MT DNIS) compared to the previous year, and harvesting has just commenced. Processors are gearing up to start production from April. However, exporters are exercising caution due to relatively softer demand from China on NIS and uncertainties surrounding the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). With AGOA providing duty-free access to the U.S. market, its potential lapse could impose tariffs on kernel imports into US. The combination of increased production and low carryover stocks is leading to prices remaining firm in the short term but may soften slightly as processing starts.
  
• Australia: The 2025 Australian macadamia crop is expected to increase by 11.1% due to generally favorable growing conditions. Tropical Cyclone Alfred, which posed a threat to the macadamia orchards, did not cause serious damages as feared. The ‘national’ farm gate offers for the season has been ~20% higher compared to previous year’s low owing to stronger kernel outlook compared to 2024. Kernel offers from Australia are higher compared to South Africa levels. However, demand from China in coming months will indicate if the prices can hold through the season.
  
• Kenya: Harvesting has begun and processors have started their factories. Kenya has decided to maintain its ban on NIS exports to support the local processing industry. The Kenyan macadamia industry faced challenges in 2024 due to high farmgate prices driven by Chinese demand, which led to overall reduction in processing volumes and kernel exports. The government’s measures aim this year is to stabilize the market and protect local processors from external competition.​

Pistachios

Crop Receipts stand at 1.11 billion lbs and with a carry in of 185 million lbs from previous crop, gross inventory stands at 1.29 billion lbs. Shrinkage and other losses, results in an adjusted inventory of 1.15 billion lbs. In comparison with previous year, availability is down by -23%. Limited Availability in shelling stock and closed shell resulting in relatively lower kernel availability. 

Domestic shipments for February, slowed down to 17 million lbs from previous month by -19.7%. Meanwhile, exports recorded a growth of +30.0%, in February with 53 million lbs. EU market posted strong shipments numbers in February, while shipments to Asia and middle east dropped in February with the end of lunar new year and Ramadan festive season. Total shipments for the season stand at 532 million lbs from 120 million lbs domestic shipments and 412 million lbs of export shipment. Available inventory for rest of the season is 615 million lbs, which is ~53% of the total availability. New bearing acreage of 500k acres is coming into production next season, resulting in an estimate of 1.6 – 1.7 billion lbs crop for 2025-2026. ​