Global Nuts Market & Crop Update

Almonds

Temperatures have remained moderate through the valley during the growing season. No serious heat waves to be concerned with thus far. The trees are looking healthy as we speed towards first harvest, now only a three or four weeks away in the south part of the state. Last year we experienced a devastating heat wave which may have contributed to the almost 1 million net pounds of crop that was lost, bringing the crop to the 2.72 billion pounds rather than the 2.8 billion pounds that was expected. This year, expectations remain that we will see a similar size crop to last year of 2.8 billion pounds if all continues as indicated, barring any heatwave in August that may influence crop yields during harvest. We will also discover what the USDA has uncovered throughout the orchards in two weeks when the objective estimate is released on the 10th of July.

The Almond Board released the May position report on June 12, 2025. The crop receipts now rest at 2.71 billion pounds, and still well below the USDA estimate of 2.80 billion pounds. The industry still expects the crop to finish around 2.72 billion pounds. Since the report, the market remained firm until last week when we saw levels for standards start to weaken. With forward demand questionable, we finish the crop year with growers and suppliers working to sell off inventory in preparations for harvest and new crop. ​ ​ ​

Shipments:
Total shipments year to date are at 2.262 billion pounds, about -1.9% below last year at this time. While it was a larger crop than last year, the carryout from the previous year was much smaller thus overall supply is down. Therefore, we may see this trend continue down otherwise a tight transition in September and October may take place. This may be preferred given the current economy. Currently the average monthly shipments over the last 10 months is 226 million pounds. The industry cannot maintain this shipment level in the last two months of the crop year and maintain a respectable transition in August through September. Expect to see a lower shipment for June around 200 million pounds.

Domestic shipments were weak for the month with only 51 million pounds shipped in May, off over 22% from a year ago. This leaves us down -6.3% for the year and continues with a downward trend we have experienced since October (being that last positive month). Really one could say this has been a multiyear trend as almond demand domestically has trended down ever since post Covid. The industry will look for answers in the near future to combat the weakening of our largest market. Meanwhile export shipments remain strong with 161 million pounds shipped in May up .2% to last year, remaining flat in total shipments to a year ago. Nonetheless, market expectations are that export shipments may still end up positive for the crop year as India has come back strong over the last three months and is expected to continue with this trend. Meanwhile China will depend mostly on Australia for their almond needs due to the current tariff in place. ​

Sales & Commitments:

Sales in May were one of the weakest sales months we have ever seen. Only 89 million pounds were sold, down 34% over last year’s sales of 134 million pounds. As a result, we have seen pricing levels come down as the market looks for interested partners. With the subjective estimate of 2.8 billion pounds, interest in new crop has not really been there as well. New crop sales of 66 million pounds versus last year’s new crop sales of 173 million pounds is off 62%. The reality of pricing for new crop not being much of a value over current crop levels has created no advantage. Buyers will wait. 

With commitments also down 402 million pounds versus last year’s 460 million pounds off 12.7%, this has essentially been driven by the domestic market and uncertainty of forward demand. Uncommitted inventory is sitting at 495 million lbs. up 17% versus last year. Uncommitted will soon start to drive down as we will see the market start to become active as the industry strives to sell off current crop as well as layer on new crop sales for the fourth quarter of 2025. 

Cashews

Approximately 85% of West African crops have flown through, and a major portion of exportable volume has been shipped in June to destination markets. Current crop availability in various origins has dropped significantly as we are entering the last leg of the season. Guinea-Bissau/Senegal crop quality in 2025 season is decent and the flows are good.​ 

Overall crop volume and quality is better in 2025 as compared to last year. Prices of inshells are softening a bit now as large portion for processing has been covered by Indian and Vietnamese buyers in last few months.​

The export restrictions implemented by Burkina Faso government have been removed and free flow for trade has resumed. Landings for first few shipments have started at destination, which will provide ease of raw material supply for processing. On Kernels, spot inventories in Vietnam continue remain thin as US buyers had pulled contracts earlier to manage supply during new tariffs implementation, but the situation is expected to improve in the next 30-45 days. 

Other Asian markets have maintained an active presence in the market, covering kernels until Q3. China has slowed down after a strong coverage plan from the start of the season. Europe had a balanced coverage in May/June with few tenders getting closed for kernels. US is less active in forward coverage and would come in market only if the demand scenarios shows positive signals of consumption. The buyers are monitoring the situation of tariffs and is pulling only necessary inventory.​

Hazelnuts

Supply

• The Turkish market is showing signs of stabilization following a few months of volatility. Most stakeholders now acknowledge that this year’s crop will be below average due to frost events in April.
• However, a brief survey conducted Mid-June suggests that the extent of crop damage may be less severe than initially feared. This has prompted some stockholders to release inventory, resulting in a slight easing of prices.​
• Crops from Chile, Italy, and other smaller producing regions are reportedly performing well and are expected to yield better-than-average harvests.
• In Turkey, prices surged from below 300 TL/kg before the frost to over 420 TL/kg at their peak. They have since softened and are now stabilizing around 390 TL/kg.​
• Damage from stink bugs appears limited for now. Temperatures across the Black Sea region have remained moderate, in contrast to the unusually hot spring experienced last year.​
• A comprehensive fruit count is currently underway, and a detailed crop estimate is expected to be published shortly. This should provide clearer insight into both the quality and quantity of the upcoming harvest.​
  
• Meanwhile, the Turkish Lira continues its gradual depreciation. In response, the central bank has signaled its readiness to raise interest rates to prevent sharp declines.​

Demand

• The frost scare has had a dual impact on demand. In the short term, buyers who were still short on their Q3-Q4 requirements, or the ones who wanted to avoid any further risk, rushed to cover their needs. However, longer-term purchases are being delayed, as prices have risen well above budgeted levels for most buyers.​​​​​​
  
• We currently believe the broader market is adequately covered for Q3, except for some retail and mid- to small-sized confectionery buyers. Several buyers are holding off until prices stabilize before securing new crop supplies. The price easing has aided in the last week or so, and therefore, we anticipate robust demand over the coming weeks.​
  
• Local demand remains sluggish, with most retail and confectionery buyers reducing their annual tender volumes.​
• Export volumes for the year have reached approximately 260K, but the pace is expected to slow down going forward.​
  

Our View:

• Prices have eased a bit – a welcome correction after a sharp upward movement in May. However, prices are expected to remain firmas widespread stock hoarding has effectively tightened availability, and is likely to keep prices elevated until the new crop arrives.
• The largest player is anticipated to secure early coverage next season due to the smaller crop, which may contribute to sustained price firmness.
• We also expect the price gap between 9-11 mm calibers and larger sizes to narrow as the supply of 9-11 mm reduces with the newcrop. Consequently, diced/paste prices may gradually move closer to whole kernel prices. This could present a good opportunity for buyers to secure these grades for longer terms, provided sellers are willing to negotiate.​

Peanuts

The USDA released the 2025 Acreage report on June 30th. The report indicates that peanut acres in the U.S. are up 5.5% compared to last year. If you recall back in March, the USDA predicted that peanut acreage would be up about 8% vs last year. While overall peanut acreage might be lower than originally anticipated, the increase of 5.5% is more than enough.

The crop is off to a great start. As of June 29th, 72% of the crop is rated in the "good to excellent" categorization. At the same time last year, only 53% of the crop rated the same. Only 1% of the crop is currently in an area affected by drought conditions.....this is almost unheard of. South Texas is currently the only growing area being affected by drought conditions. No doubt, the potential exists to produce a large crop, but it's still early in the growing season and several critical months are still in front of us.

The market continues to be very quiet. Most buyers have taken some new crop coverage and are content to wait a bit longer before adding additional layers. With demand being relatively sluggish, and the possibility of a larger crop arriving in the fall, prices have continued to ever so slowly weaken. There is currently very little difference in prices for current crop ('24 crop) and new crop. Prices for APSA spec and negative runner splits are near $0.50, with mediums and jumbos priced $0.01 - $0.02 higher. Blanched jumbos are quoted in the $0.66 - $0.68 range, with blanched splits around $0.63 - $0.64.

According to the USDA Peanut Stocks and Processing Report, edible peanut usage in the U.S. is down 1.4% vs last year on a crop year to date basis (August – May). Usage in peanut butter is down 2.2%, usage in candy is down 6.7%, and usage in peanut snacks is up 4.5%.​

Macadamias

Harvesting of nut-in-shells is underway across all major origins, with approximately 70% of the crop already harvested in Australia and South/East Africa.​

Australia and parts of East Africa have experienced lower yields compared to earlier forecasts, mainly due to weather-related challenges. Incessant rains in Australia have also impacted quality and yields significantly. A revised crop forecast may be released in the coming weeks, offering a clearer picture of overall supply.​

Kernel prices remained firm through June, supported by sustained demand in key markets and reports of a short crop from Australia and parts of East Africa.​

In-shell prices have also held steady, driven by increased processor interest in cracking and increased Chinese buying from South Africa. However, as crop availability improves, prices are expected to soften.​

China has recently resumed in-shell purchases from Africa. This year, they began with surplus inventory due to over-contracting last season and a strong domestic crop. As their own harvest begins around August/September, they are importing more cautiously. If Chinese demand slows, in-shell prices could ease further.​

• South Africa: The 2025 macadamia crop in South Africa may fall slightly short of the forecasted 90,000 MT NIS. Parts of East Africa have already reported significantly lower yields than expected, and similar trends are emerging in South Africa. Strong kernel demand is encouraging processors to prioritize local cracking over exporting NIS.​
  
• Australia: Australia’s 2025 macadamia crop is now projected at around 45,000 tons, notably below the earlierforecast of 55,000 tons. Persistent rains in key growing regions have caused crop damage and delayed harvests, leading to quality concerns. Farm gate prices opened approximately 20% higher than last year’s lows, driven by a stronger kernel outlook. However, China has scaled back its NIS purchases from Australia due to higher prices compared to other origins.​​​​ 
  
• Kenya: The first crop harvest is nearly complete, with processors beginning shipments in April. Kenya has maintained its ban on NIS exports to support domestic processing. In 2024, the industry faced challenges due to high farm gate prices driven by Chinese demand, which reduced processing volumes and kernel exports. This year, government measures aim to stabilize the market and shield local processors from external competition. Kernel offers have now begun for the second crop, which will be harvested in August/September.​​

Pistachios

Crop Receipts stand at 1.11 billion lbs and with a carry in of 185 million lbs from previous crop, gross inventory stands at 1.29 billion lbs. Shrinkage and other losses, results in an adjusted inventory of 1.11 billion lbs. In comparison with previous year, availability is down by -22%. Shelling Stock, closed shell remains in tight supply, in turn lowering the overall availability of kernels.

Domestic demand in May declined to 19.7 million lbs, down 15% from April. Cumulative domestic shipments for the season now total 179.6 million lbs, reflecting a 6% YoY drop. Relatively, domestic shipments performed strongly despite lower crop availability. On the export front, may shipments volume has reached 51.2 million lbs, a 2% decrease from April. Global markets also saw notable shifts. Shipments to China fell sharply, with only 88,000 lbs exported in May – a staggering decline resulting from the high retaliatory tariffs in China on US goods. 351 million lbs remains to be shipped for this season.

Pistachios supply chain is adjusting to the changes in trade policy from US, along with the Middle East geopolitical escalations. ​