Global Nuts Market & Crop Update

Almonds

The Almond Board released the June position report on July 10, 2025. Receipts in June were 816.62 thousand lbs., down 86.5% from last June’s receipts of 6.06 million lbs. The crop receipts now halt at 2.71 billion pounds, up 10.9% vs last year’s 2.45 billion lbs. Crop receipts have come to a screeching halt ensuring a final crop size below 2.72 billion lbs.

Shipments:
Total shipments for the month were 186.73 million lbs., coming in below industry expectations of 200 million lbs. This shipment number is down 9.4% vs. last May’s 206.16 million lbs. Total shipments are currently 2.50% down vs last year’s shipments. Shipments continue to not meet last year’s strong performance month to month and now are certain to finish the crop year down.

Domestic shipments were 51.35 million lbs., down 17.2% vs last year’s 62.02 million lbs. Domestic shipments continue at their new normal pace of shipments just above 50 million lbs. This trend has now carried on for four months in a row and have domestic shipments now preparing for their worst year in shipments since the 2015/2016 crop year. The domestic market trend shows weakness on consumption, a trend that has been continuously affecting the market since post pandemic. Domestic shipments now sit 7.96% down year over year. Meanwhile export shipments remain strong at 135.39 million lbs., which is 6.1% down vs last year’s 144.14 million lbs. Export shipments had their worst month of the crop year over year. However, they sit down just .52% on the year, and still have a chance to end the year up when they go against last July’s 126.34 million lbs. next month. 

Sales & Commitments:

Commitments for the 2024 crop year stand at 312.36 million lbs., which is down 9.98% vs the 347.02 million lbs. from last year. The domestic market continues to be the cause of this difference being 20% down year over year, while export commitments are flat vs last year. As with sales we see the larger discrepancy on commitments in the new crop period. With the objective estimate releasing shortly both sides will have no choice but to use this number for pricing expectation on early crop year commitments.  

Uncommitted 2024 crop inventory sits at 399.22 million lbs., up 18.3% vs last year’s 337.52 million lbs. Uncommitted Inventory continues to drive lower now that receipts are all but done. This low uncommitted inventory continues to put pressure on some items availability, with some items now unavailable till new crop is harvested.  

Cashews

The cashew season for northern hemisphere has come to an end. The crop volume is better this year, and we expect total crop in 2025 to be higher by 7% as compared to last year. A major portion of exportable volume has been shipped in June/July to destination markets. Hence, current crop availability in various growing origins has dropped significantly.​ 

As landings at destination (India/Vietnam) continues, we have seen some quality concerns in the crop due to bad weather conditions in the second half of the RCN season. As the total volume was better this year, prices of inshells dropped in June for a period of 3 weeks but bounced back in July due to support from kernel prices.​​

With more RCN available at destination, spot inventories of kernels in Vietnam has become better but at the same time we have seen a strong pull of kernels from China and Europe. This has kept the market firm after a short period of dip. With Euro strengthening, most of the European buyers would like to cover their partial requirements now, leading to spot demand in the market.

Furthermore, as new tariffs have been declared by US for products from Vietnam, we have seen weaker demand signals from US buyers and overall pull is slow. Interest for new purchases is bleak and most of the sellers/buyers are waiting for August 1st timeline, when 20% tariffs from Vietnam will be enforced and more details related to these tariffs could be available.

Hazelnuts

Supply

• Carryover Stocks: Estimated at 150,000–170,000 MT, driven by farmer/trader stock retention in anticipation of stronger prices. Harvest expected in August, with availability starting early September.​
• Exports: Despite strong early-season momentum, exports will likely close just above 300,000 MT, indicating sluggish demand and uncovered Q4 needs.​​
• Frost Impact: Confirmed reduction in Turkey's crop, but offset by healthy crops in Chile and other origins, and strong carryover in Turkey.​
• Weather & Pest Conditions: Limited stink bug damage reported. Spring was moderate, but recent heatwaves in the western region has raised yield concerns.​​
• TMO Pricing Outlook: Expected base price: ~180 TL/kg, following recent 30–35% increases for other crops like Tea. Alternatively, TMO may refrain from setting a price this season due to smaller crop size, letting market forces prevail.​
• Currency Impact: The Turkish Lira continues to depreciate. Last week, the Central Bank reduced the interest rate to 43%, reflecting falling inflation.​​
  

Demand

• Buyer Behavior:
  • Larger industrial buyers have mostly covered Q4 and early Q1 needs.​
  • Mid - and small-sized buyers, especially in retail and confectionery, remain cautious, waiting for price stabilization.​
  • We expect robust demand during August – September to cover short term needs for new crop​.
    
• Domestic Market: Still sluggish, with many reducing annual tender volumes.
• Market Outlook:
  • Supply Balance: Despite Turkey’s lower crop, adequate overall supply is expected, supported by carryover and other origins. Turkish sellers remain reluctant to release stocks, tightening short-term availability.​
  • Price Trends: Prices briefly eased in early July but are now firming again due to reduced availability. We do not foresee a large downside to these levels.​
  • Forward View: With a smaller crop, the largest market player may secure early coverage, reinforcing upward price pressure into the new season.​

Peanuts

In the blink of an eye, August is upon us. As the calendar turns to the new month, we enter the home stretch for the early planted portion of the crop. Areas in north central Florida will begin harvesting no later than mid-August and by the time we get to mid-September, harvest should be well underway in many of the growing areas, particularly in the Southeast. As usual, harvest activity should peak around mid-October and then slowly wind down as we get into early November. According to the USDA, 1.9 million peanut acres were planted this year in the U.S. (an increase of 5.5% vs. last year). This is the most peanut acres in the U.S. since the early 1990’s. At this point, there’s little doubt that peanut production will be substantial this year, but many questions are yet to be answered regarding what the quality of the crop will ultimately be. 

As of July 27th, the USDA reported that 68% of the crop was in “good” to “excellent” condition. Coincidentally, 68% of the crop fell into this same classification at the same time last year. While overall conditions are still favorable, they have declined a bit in each report over the last 4 weeks. This is nothing to be alarmed about just yet, but something to watch as we move forward. In several previous years, we’ve had a good crop at the end of July only to see it wither away in August and September. The next 6 weeks are critical. While rainfall was abundant in May & June, conditions have somewhat dried out in Southeast Alabama and Southwest Georgia (some of the highest producing areas in the country) over the last 30 days. Areas of the Carolinas havealso seen below normal rainfall during the same period. And while it’s not breaking news to have hot temperatures in the Southeast, the region will be experiencing daytime temperatures approaching 100 degrees this week. Heat index values are predicted to be near 110 degrees with night time low temperatures going no lower than the upper 70’s. Elevated average temperatures such as this can stress the plants, particularly if conditions linger over anextended period. Frequent rainfall will be needed over the next 6 weeks to maximize the potential of the crop, and to (hopefully) avoid any significant quality issues. The tropics are showing signs of awakening, which could be a good thing or a bad thing depending on the strength of any system that might develop, the timing of any impact, and the location of any impact. Stay tuned…

In the latest WASDE report, the USDA slightly increased the projected ‘24 crop ending stocks. They’re now predicting that we’ll carry 843k tons of ‘24 crop stocks into the ‘25 crop marketing year (which begins August 1st). The market “feels” like ending stocks will be higher than this, but the USDA (to this point) has been consistent in their projections. In the same WASDE report, USDA is initially putting ‘25 crop production at 3.7 million tons, which would be a record. Looking way forward, they’re projecting that ‘25 crop ending stocks (in July ‘26) will be 1.128 million tons. If true, this would not represent an oversupply at all. However, USDA is using some very aggressive demand figures for the ‘25 crop marketing year. Realistically, IF production reaches 3.7 million tons, and IF ‘24 crop carryout stocks are a bit higher than USDA is projecting, and IF ’25 crop demand falls somewhere in the usual 3.0 – 3.1 million tons range….carryout stocks of ‘25 crop could be closer to 1.4 million tons than 1.128 million tons. As stated earlier, many questions yet to be answered. We’ll see the first official production estimate from USDA in the next Crop Production report on August 12th. We should also get our first glimpse of Certified Acres sometime in early August as well. This information, along with continuous monitoring of the crop conditions, should help us begin to get a better handle on the potential of this crop.​

The kernel market continues to be relatively quiet. Some buyers are seeing value in the prices that are currently offered and are choosing to add some coverage, while others see no need at this time to add to the positions they’ve already taken. After slowly weakening over the last couple of months, ‘25 crop kernel prices seem to have stabilized for the moment. APSA negative Jumbos are priced in the $0.51 - $0.52 range, Mediums $0.50 - $0.51, and Splits $0.49 - $50. Blanched jumbos are offered in the mid $0.60’s, with blanched splits offered in the $0.62 - $0.63 range. Wildlife grade kernels are offered in the range of $0.43 - $0.44. There’s now very little difference in the price of ‘24 crop and ‘25 crop kernels. Maybe a penny or two premium for ‘24 crop dependingon grade and spec…but the difference is minimal. As a general statement, kernel prices haven’t been this low since early 2022.

11 months into the ‘24 crop marketing year and USDA Stocks and Processing Report reflects the following:​

• Peanut usage in candy -4.8% vs. Aug-Jun prior marketing year.
• Peanut usage in snacks +4.5% vs. Aug – Jun prior marketing year.​
• Peanut usage in peanut butter -2.0% vs. Aug – Jun prior marketing year.​
• Total usage for edible -1.0% vs. Aug – Jun prior marketing year.  ​

U.S. peanut exports continue to lag the pace of last year as well. For the 10-month period, Aug – May, export volumes are down -19.3% vs. the same timelast year (Europe -58.0%, China -27.1%, Mexico -2.5%, Japan -22.3%, Canada +12.9%). Continued fear of tariff impacts, combined with lower prices fromcompeting origins will continue to create headwinds for U.S. exports, at least in the near term.

Macadamias

Harvesting of nut-in-shells is underway across all major origins, with approximately 80% of the crop already harvested in Australia and South/East Africa.

Australia and parts of East Africa have experienced lower yields compared to earlier forecasts, due to weather-related challenges. Incessant rains in Australia have also impacted quality and yields significantly.

Kernel prices edged up a little through July, supported by sustained demand in Europe and Asia and with news of the short crop.

In-shell prices have held steady, driven by increased processor interest in cracking and increased Chinese buying from South Africa.

China has recently resumed in-shell purchases from Africa. This year, they began with surplus inventory due to over-contracting last season and a strong domestic crop. As their own harvest begins around August/September, they are importing more cautiously. If Chinese demand slows, in-shell prices could ease further.​

• South Africa: South Africa’s 2025 macadamia crop has been revised down to 85,166 tonnes DNIS (from 93,433tonnes) by SAMAC, due to adverse weather and reduced farm inputs. In KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), flowering was disrupted by a warm autumn. Limpopo experienced cold damage in August 2024, while Mpumalanga faced small nut sizes due to dry, warm conditions and hail damage. Additionally, reduced use of fertilizers and pesticides further impacted yields and quality.​​
  
• Australia: Australia’s 2025 macadamia crop is now projected at around 40,000 tonnes, which is 28% below the earlier forecast of 55,000 tonnes. Persistent rains in key growing regions have caused crop damage and delayed harvests, raising concerns about quality. Farm gate prices opened approximately 20% higher than last year’s lows, driven by a more optimistic kernel outlook.​​​​​ 
  
• Kenya: The first crop harvest is complete, with processors finalizing the last kernel shipments in July/August. Kenya has maintained its ban on NIS exports to support domestic processing this year. Overall, the crop met expectations, and processors are now preparing for the second, smaller crop, which will begin harvesting in September.​​​

Pistachios

Crop Receipts stand at 1.11 billion lbs and with a carry in of 185 million lbs from previous crop, gross inventory stands at 1.29 billion lbs. Additional shrinkage of 30 million lbs from previous month, results in adjusted inventory of 1.11 billion lbs. Low availability overall and even more so for kernel raw material. 

Domestic shipments in June increased to 21.4 million lbs, up +9% from May, bringing cumulative domestic shipments to 201 million lbs, still down -6% YoY. Export shipments rose slightly to 53.5 million lbs, a +4.5% month-over-month increase, but YTD exports at 632 million lbs remain -24% lower than last year. Global markets are stabilizing, with shipments to China reaching 4.5 million lbs after dismal performance in May and Germany recovering sharply in June with 9.9 million lbs which is a +69% increase over May. On the other hand, shipments to Vietnam in June were at 3.8 million lbs which is a reduction of -47% from May. YTD basis, shipments to China and Germany market are down by -47% and -6% respectively while shipments to Vietnam are up +50%. Inventory of 273 million lbs remains at origin, and with similar shipment volumes expected in last two months, carry target for this season will be at 150 million lbs. ​