Nuts Market & Crop Update - Global

Almonds

The summer heat continues throughout California as triple digits remained throughout the month of July. There has been little relief in the growing regions. Growers continue to pay close attention as we get closer harvest. Orchards will need to be irrigated until that time. The heat has kept the crop on time, with harvest starting in the southernmost part of the state possibly within the next 10 days.

The objective estimate has reported the new crop year 2024/’25 to be 2.8 billion pounds. The industry had expected somewhere in the range of 2.9 to 3.1. The industry will have to market the 24/25 crop as a 2.8 billion pound crop until harvest has been completed to see if it is  accurate or not. With a strong shipment report for June in the books at 206 million pounds, shipments were up 10.5% over last June. The industry has now shipped over 2.51 billion pounds. With July shipments left to go (which will be reported on August 9th, it is very possible that we will see a carryout less than 450 million pounds. This has led to little current crop remaining, which has been very evident for weeks now. Other than manufactured being available, it is nearly impossible to find any brown skin out there.

These strong shipments this season do not go without consequences as it has put a great deal of pressure on current stocks remaining. Most, if not all, of the popular varieties and grades have become difficult to find. As processors run their final stocks, things will pop up so don’t give up, keep calling. This year’s crop will settle in near 2.45 billion pounds. It has been five years since we have seen lower crop production. It will be short lived, as the crop will bounce back this year, even if not at the level once expected.

Cashews

In-shells:

• The in-shell season in West-Africa is coming to his end. Where the Ivorian Government continued with their in-shell export suspension we have seen other growing countries as well challenged to cater the high-quality in-shell demand.
• In-shell prices stabilized during the month which helped Asian processors to better forecast their requirements for the coming weeks. Main challenge remains to give support on far forward offers to destination markets as carry costs has become a major part of the final price calculations.
• The Southern-Hemisphere crops (East-Africa, Brazil, Indonesia) are expected to start soon, depending on the region, by September/October. With the knowledge at this point of time overall it seems to be normal crops in size. On quality we need to wait till November/December for a better judgement.

Kernels:

• Kernel markets continued to trade and move across the globe as the destination markets understand and accept the new price levels. Kernel availability is limited as local processors only process quantities against commitments to minimize carry costs. Inventories on the ground at main destination markets remains limited.
• During July Kernel prices fairly stabilized which has led to more decisions in destination markets for their FY24 needs, and even went beyond for coverage up to mid 2025.
• Europe will soon start their demand for Calendar Year 2025. With prices already multiyear high and supply remain a serious question mark we will likely see a lot of activity from mid August onwards once the summer holidays come to their end.

Hazelnuts

Supply Side:

• The 2023 season has almost come to an end. TMO will carry its 110K inventory into the next season. Carry with traders/ farmers is expected to be another 80-90K MT.
• The upcoming crop looks good across origins. Turkey crop is expected be in the range of 750-800K MT inshells. Adding the carry, supply for the upcoming season is more than adequate
• Prices have been stable most of July. The pressure on prices due to overall large supply and low demand is balanced by the expectation of TMO soon to declare a ‘fair price’ for the upcoming season. The market also expects Ferrero to be aggressive in the early part of the season.

Demand side:

• Overall demand looks steady. We have seen some slowdown in bakery segment in particular, but confectionery segment seems • resilient despite high prices of other ingredients, especially cocoa
• Most buyers are covering any open requirements of current season as well as Q4. We expect this buying to continue during August. However, not many enquiries yet for Q1/Q2 2025
• Turkish exports for the season end of January stand at 268K against 273K for the same period last year. Exports have caught up as Ferrero was able to source and export their requirement late in the season.

Peanuts

2024 U.S. crop plantings are essentially complete. Now, we turn to the weather. Temperatures are predicted to be warmer than average throughout the summer and into winter. Experts are also calling for potential record-breaking activity this hurricane season (June – Nov). Tropical activity is necessary to bring essential rains during the growing season, BUT which areas will see these systems and how timely will they occur? Soil moisture was getting very dry across all growing regions, especially in the SE and V/C, which puts stress on the plants and could impact yields. The SE & Delta regions have been receiving scattered showers the past few days, which will help some areas. Weather is the biggest question mark right now.

Demand for U.S. peanuts continues to hold stable in the 3M ton range, in part due to increased exports. It remains to be seen whether this increased export demand holds, as much of the influx was due to Argentina’s poor crop in 2023. USDA annual crop acreage report came out June 28th, predicting acreage up 6.8% (up from .05% in the original March estimate). FSA certified acres are reported at the end of July. We need an increase in production (somewhere around 3.25M tons) to get the U.S. back to a comfortable supply, but with an almost 7% increase from last year, optimal yields could produce a crop between 3.3M & 3.4M. With the small carry-in from 2023 crop, this won’t be a huge excess, but we certainly wouldn’t want back to back crops at that size (2024 & 2025). Despite what the actual planted acreage is, the production size will depend on yields. Quality is also yet to be determined. As mentioned above, much of the controlling factor is weather.

Activity in the U.S. kernel market is fairly quiet. Kernel prices for 2023 crop are holding firm in the upper $0.60’s, with very little trading. Offers for prompt or nearby positions are extremely limited to not available. Kernel prices for 2024 crop remain in the upper $0.50’s.

Macadamias

Key developments in major macadamia growing regions:

• South Africa: South Africa is facing a slight decline in macadamia production this year, with the forecast at 76,753 MT, a 3.7% decrease from last year. This reduction is primarily due to early heavy rains and subsequent cooler summer conditions, which have negatively affected nut size and yield quality in several regions.​
• Australia: Australia is expected to recover from last year’s downturn with a 5.0% increase in production, forecasted at 50,830 MT. Despite challenges such as prolonged heat and wet weather in key growing regions, improved conditions towards the end of the season have supported a positive outlook.​
• Kenya: Kenya's production forecast has been adjusted down slightly to 44,000 MT, a 3.5% increase from last year. The decrease from the initial forecast is attributed to excessive rains in May, which impacted harvesting operations and overall yield

Pistachios

Pistachios crop receipts remain unchanged at 1.49 billion lbs., which is +35% INC’s forecast and around +69% increase from last year crop of 884.1 million lbs. Gross inventory available was 1.65 billion lbs and coupled with shrinkage and other adjustments of 250 million lbs, leads to adjusted inventory of 1.41 billion lbs. ​
Continuing the slow shipment momentum of May, shipments in Jun are at 72 million lbs, which is -16% decrease YoY basis. Domestic shipments remained the same, YoY basis at 22 million lbs, while exports in Jun, at 50 million lbs, reduced -23% YoY basis.

Despite slow shipments in April, May and June, total year to date shipments reached 1.05 billion lbs, a +35% increase compared to last year. This trend is driven by strong exports, which has reached 833 million lbs, growing +47% YoY basis. Consequentially, available inventory at origin is 360 million lbs or 21% of the gross inventory.​

New Crop is expected to be around 1.1 billion lbs with an expected carry out of 250 million lbs. Production capacity in US, has increased for the 2024 crop and therefore smooth harvest is expected.