Global Nuts Market & Crop Update

Almonds

Happy New Year to all. With January, California enters its wettest time of the winter. The Almond Trees are dormant as they rest in wait for their bloom in early February. We have already had some fairy cold days in December with more expected in January for the al-limportant chilling hours assisting in healing the trees during their dormancy. All eyes of course will be on our weather leading up to the February bloom.

The Almond Board released the November position report three weeks ago. Crop receipts in November grew by almost 500 million pounds but was down 6.8% to last November’s 533 million pounds. Crop receipts to date are up 25.4% at 2.342 billion pounds. These numbers are less than what would be expected by this point. If we assume that 90% of the crop is received by now then this would put the crop at 2.6 billion pounds, opposed to the official USDA estimate of 2.8 billion pounds. The next position report due out January 9, 2025.

Thus far the total shipments for the crop year are at 911.7 million pounds just off by -0.40% to last year, essentially flat to last year. With such a small carry-out this season of 503 million pounds, the transition this year was especially tight leading to a tough start this year. As the crop came over the last 5 months, we began to catch up. November shipments were 271.4 million pounds up 13.9% over last year’s 238 million pounds and exceeded industry expectations. This is also a record shipment historically for the month of November.

Domestic shipments were 54.44 million lbs., down 9.8% vs last year’s 60.37 million lbs after a strong October shipment number. Domestic shipments continue to be up and
down. While a poor month for domestic, YTD shipments are virtually flat for the year. Look for Domestic shipments to bounce back once again in the months ahead.

Export shipments were the shining star for November with 217 million pounds shipped, up 22% versus a year ago 178 million pounds. Export shipments were strong mainly to
the EU. This may be hard to duplicate as it was also an historic shipment number into Europe. Nevertheless, Europe remains down -3% YoY so expectations are to continue to
see growth in the months ahead. The ME region also had a strong month, driven largely off Turkey shipments. China continues to be down on shipments as this region looks for non-tariff affected almonds from other origins namely Australia. The India market has continued to be focused on consuming their current stock and have now seen 3 months of depressed
shipments leading them to be down 23% YoY. This will likely force the India region to buy and replenish their stocks soon.

Sales & Commitments: Total new sales for November were 209.46 million lbs., slightly up .6% vs. last year’s sales of 208.22 million lbs. Both domestic and export sales largely matched last year’s numbers. This number overall was smaller than some of the previous months of the crop year due to the Thanksgiving holiday making November a short month, however we
are still seeing business concluded at higher price levels as the market continues to firm on expectations of lower supply.

Commitments for the 2024 crop year stand at 611.77 million lbs., which is down 5.5% vs the 647.42 million lbs. from last year. This is really a function of lack of offers as growers cautiously continue to wait not offering out too far into the year. However, total commitments remain near last year’s levels, we still do not expect commitments to rise out of this range in the near term due to CA’s unwillingness to sell anything out past the next 3 months. This commitment number could push lower next month due to a combo of slow sales during the holiday period and CA’s lack of interest for post bloom sales.

Uncommitted 2024 crop inventory sits at 1.275 billion lbs., up 19.4% vs last year’s 1.067 billion lbs. This number will stabilize next month and start to move downwards as new crop receipts are finalizing quickly.

Cashews

Markets are very quiet. Tanzanian crop turned out to be much better than last year with over 400,000 tons harvested. This represents an increase of about 155,000 tons over last year!

Due to the large crop in Tanzania, demand for inshells was also very subdued.

Flowering is reported across Northern hemisphere cashew origins. It is however too early to comment on the crop as last year we did have similar timing of flowering.

Kernel buyers are in wait and watch mode and with excess inventory in destinations there is no real hurry.

Chinese buyers were also quiet, and if sales in China is good for the Chinese new year, we may have some fresh buying interest post Tet.

Hazelnuts

Supply

As highlighted in previous reports, though overall supply for the season ismore than adequate, but concerns related to the crop quality have been weighing on the supply and thus the pricing. We have observed a large variance in the raw material price depending on the quality. The TMO had announced a price of TL 260/kg, which translated close to 8 $/kg – a significant increase over past years. The largest buyer has been active in the past few weeks and has kept the prices firm. Prices have been hovering between the 250-260 TL/kg mark, and some tailwind from the depreciating TL has softened the USD prices in the past 2-3 weeks.

Demand
Overall demand looks steady. We have witnessed some tender volumes drop against last season, but most larger buyers are reporting stable demand despite prices of Cocoa and sugar climbing up.

The current season exports are better than previous year, but predominantly due to the largest buyer being more active.

Most large confectionery buyers have covered their requirements for Q1-Q2 before the holidays. We expect retail and private label customers to keep buying, which might support the prices.

Peanuts

As of December 27th, 3.16 million tons of ‘24 crop farmerstock have been inspected and graded by USDA Federal State Inspection Service. If prior years are any indication, it’s likely that a small quantity of tons will be added to this total over the next few weeks, but probably not enough to reach the 3.25 million tons as predicted by the USDA. The quality of the crop is generally decent, with overall aflatoxin levels slightly better than last year.

Shelled kernel inventories remain low and are expected to remain tight throughout the ’24 crop marketing year. The USDA predicts that ‘24 crop carryout stocks will be only 823k tons as of 7/31/25 (the end of the ‘24 crop marketing year). If true, this would be the 2nd lowest carryout since 2016, when carryout stocks were only 720k. Other independent estimates put the carryout closer to 950k.

Edible kernel prices are stable. When offered, APSA spec, negative aflatoxin runner splits are priced in the low $0.60’s, while medium runners and jumbo runners are in the range of
$0.63 - $0.65 per lb. Blanched splits are priced in the mid $0.70’s, while blanched jumbo runners are upper $0.70’s to near $0.80 per lb. Based on the current supply / demand outlook, it seems likely that prices will continue to trade with a reasonably narrow range for the near future.

Macadamias

The macadamia kernel market has been active, with buyers in Europe and the US seeking spot inventories to meet holiday demand. This year, strong kernel demand coupled with a crop shortfall in key production areas, particularly South Africa and Australia, has led to robust demand in most destination markets. Buyers are eager to cover their needs, given that the next major crop cycle is still months away. Consequently, the carry-forward inventory for next year is expected to be low, with the next significant crop anticipated in April-May 2025.

China has been very active this year, sourcing nut-in-shell from all major origins – Australia, South Africa, and Kenya. With the recent Chinese crop now harvested, they are well-prepared for the Chinese New Year, and further demand has ceased. The consumption patterns during this period will set the stage for pricing and demand outlook for the 2025 crop.

• South Africa: SAMAC has revised the crop forecast to 83,726 NIS at 1.5% moisture for the second quarter, which is 7% less than the forecast for the first quarter. This reduction is primarily due to heavy rains earlier in the season and subsequent cooler summer conditions, which have negatively affected nut size and yield quality in several regions.
• Australia: The Australian macadamia industry achieved a crop of 53,950 tonnes (in-shell at 3.5% moisture) for the 2024 season, with around 75% exported. Over the last decade, the industry has seen substantial changes in size and demography, with an additional 20,000 hectares planted and increased professionalism and corporate investment. It is anticipated that this will nearly double the crop to 97,461 tonnes (at 3.5% moisture) by 2029.
• Kenya: Kenya’s production was lower than projected, with a big crop of 44,000 MT, a 3.5% increase from last year. Since the export ban on NIS was lifted late last year, China has been actively buying NIS in the region, resulting in lower kernel exports this year. Recently, the Ministry of Agriculture in Kenya announced a seasonal ban on macadamia harvesting from November 2, 2024, to March 1, 2025. This move aims to prevent the export of immature nuts. Consequently, kernel exports from the region cannot occur before April-May 2025, but the volume should be better as the nuts will have sufficient time to
  mature before harvest.

Pistachios

Crop Receipts were revised to 1.11 billion lbs and with a carry in of 184 million lbs from previous crop, gross inventory stands at 1.29 billion lbs. Shrinkage and other losses, results in an adjusted inventory of 1.18 billion lbs. In comparison with previous year, availability is down by -22%. Nut quality, and sizing has improved for majority of the orchards, which has led to lower inshells defects, ergo lower shelling stock [kernels are processed from Shelling stock].

US Domestic demand continue to remain strong with 62 million lbs shipments, which is +2.3% YoY increase. Strong momentum prevailed in exports as well, with November exports reaching 159 million lbs. Despite lower crop availability this year, total exports, at 322 million lbs were only lower by -6.9% compared to previous year. Available Inventory is at 854 million lbs.