Global Nuts Market & Crop Update

Almonds

The Almond Board released the July position report on August 12, 2025. This is the 12th and final report for the 2024 crop year. Receipts in July were 434.26 thousand lbs., up 33.0% from last July’s receipts of 326.47 thousand lbs. This brings final receipts for the 2024 crop year to 2.713 billion lbs., up 10.9% vs last year’s 2.446 billion lbs.

Shipments:
Total shipments for the month were 197.15 million lbs., coming in above industry expectations of 180 million lbs. This shipment number is up 9.9% vs. last July’s 179.43 million lbs. Total shipments ended the year at 2.65 billion lbs., down 1.7% vs last year’s shipments of 2.69 billion lbs. Shipments struggled in the second half of the crop year, largely held down by domestic shipments while export shipments saw growth year over year.

Domestic shipments were 50.15 million lbs., down 5.6% vs last year’s 53.10 million lbs. Domestic shipments had their worst shipment month of the year to end the 2024 crop year. Domestic shipments finalized at 7.79% down year over year after a lackluster final 6 months of the crop year. This also caused domestic shipments to hit their lowest point since the 2015/2016 crop year. Domestic consumption was the glaring concern of the 2024 crop year, one in which both growers and handlers are now looking for answers on how to improve for the upcoming 2025 crop year.

Export shipments were 147 million lbs., which is 16.4% up vs last year’s 126.34 million lbs. Export shipments had a good month to end the crop year, which helped export shipments end up year over year. Exports finished the year at 1.98 billion lbs., up .57% on the year vs last year’s 1.96 billion lbs. Export markets are becoming a higher percentage of total almond consumption year over year and now represent ~75% of total shipments. All regions besides China ended the year up vs. last year which has shown derisking vs. the volatile trade situation into China. India has their largest shipment month of the year which brought their shipments up year over year. 

Sales & Commitments:

Sales for the month were 100.25 million lbs., up 43.4% vs. last year’s sales of 69.92 million lbs. Current crop sales were very strong for the end of a crop year, this is largely due to export buyers needing to ensure early shipments to reach their destinations in time as they wait for the 2025 crop to be harvested. New crop sales were 173.37 million lbs. up 61% vs last year’s 107.73 million lbs. New crop and current crop sales combined to help finish the year on a strong note and showed that both motivated buyers and sellers remain at the updated price levels post the objective estimate. 

Commitments for the 2024 crop year stand at 215.48 million lbs., which is down 9.27% vs the 237.51 million lbs. from last year. The domestic market is largely leading this decline similar to year over year shipments as this market is seeing the most uncertainty with demand. New Crop commitments are 284.83 million lbs. which is down 25% vs. last year’s 379.01 million lbs. Both domestic and export buyers along with California sellers remain under committed vs.
this time last year.   

Uncommitted 2024 crop inventory finalized at 299.39 million lbs., up 11.7% vs last year’s 267.93 million lbs. Uncommitted Inventory finished nearly at par with last year and the majority of this product is unsellable in its current form.

Cashews

The cashew season for northern hemisphere has come to an end. Based on the export numbers at the end of July, overall volume looks higher by 10% as compared to LY for northern hemisphere crops. A major portion of exportable volume has been shipped by end of July to destination markets, which thereby has improved availability of raw nut for processingin India/Vietnam.​ 

Processing is at its peak in Asia & Africa in Q3 and we will see an increase in kernel export volumes in coming months to fulfill existing contracts. EU, China & Middle East has bought more aggressively this year, which has depleted the pipeline inventories for H1 2025. US imports were also higher until mid of Q2 but we have seen a gradual decline in overall imports due to higher tariffs and uncertainty in demand due to increase in costs. 

India demand is sluggish from July onwards but is expected to pick up from September as the festival season starts. Europe and China are expected to be stable in their demand for Q3/Q4. For US, we should expect further drop in demand as the new prices for snack nuts will be declared, adjusting for tariff impacts.

With stronger Euro, we have seen activity from European markets even during the holiday season. Buyers have covered their partial requirements and looking for cover for far forward when suitable pricing is available.

Hazelnuts

The harvest across the black sea region in Turkey has commenced. The initial indications though are not too promising. We are witnessing lower than expected cracking yield, as well as a higher percentage of lower caliber kernels. This has led to a strong bullish sentiment and widespread hoarding. Prices have climbed up to almost 12 $/kg – a 10 year high.

Supply

• Carryover Stocks: Estimated at 150,000–170,000 MT, driven by farmer/trader stock retention in anticipation of stronger prices. Harvest expected in August, with availability starting early September.​
• Crop Estimate: The Ministry of Agriculture had initially projected the crop at 464,000 metric tons (MT) of inshells. In contrast, the exporters’ association estimated a significantly higher figure of 601,000 MT. Most market analysts now believe the actual crop size lies between these two estimates, with the current consensus placing it in the range of 550,000 to 570,000 MT.
• Exports: Despite strong early-season momentum, 2024-25 exports will close around 310,000 MT. With prices now touching 10 year high,
  indicating sluggish demand and uncovered Q4 needs.​​
• TMO Pricing Outlook: TMO has announced a support price of 195 TL/kg inshells. However, open market is trading much higher than the support price, and farmers are not expected to supply any stocks to TMO.​
• Currency Impact: The Turkish Lira continues to depreciate and has crossed the 41 TL/$ mark. Last month, the Central Bank reduced the interest rate to 43%, reflecting falling inflation.​​
  

Demand

• Buyer Behavior:
  • Larger industrial buyers have mostly covered Q4 and early Q1 needs.​
  • Mid - and small-sized buyers, especially in retail and confectionery, remain cautious, waiting for price stabilization.​ Some buyers have been caught off guard and now awaiting supply to improve to cover for immediate needs.
  • We expect robust demand during August – September to cover short term needs, limiting any downside on price.
    
• Domestic Market: Still sluggish, with many reducing annual tender volumes.
• Market Outlook:
  • Supply Balance: Despite Turkey’s lower crop, adequate overall supply is expected, supported by carryover and other origins. Turkish sellers remain reluctant to release stocks, tightening short-term availability.​
  • Price Trends: Prices briefly eased in early July but are now firming again due to reduced availability. We do not foresee a large downside to these levels.​
  • Forward View: With a smaller crop, the largest market player may secure early coverage, reinforcing upward price pressure into the new season.​

Peanuts

Peanut acres in the U.S. increased 7.7% in 2025, according to the USDA in the August Crop Production Report. Production is predicted to reach 3.6 million tons (in-shell), which would represent a new record high. Overall crop conditions continue to be very good. As of 8/23, 74% of peanut acreage was rated in the “good to excellent”. Harvest is underway in northern Florida and will increase across other areas of the peanut belt over the next several weeks. At the moment, it appears that a large and (hopefully) good quality crop is on the way. 

The kernel market has been very quiet in recent weeks. Buyers seem to feel that prices can only go lower, with no upside risk. At the moment, Runner Splits are in the $0.47- $0.48 range, with Runner Mediums and Runner Jumbos priced $0.01 - $0.02 higher. Blanched Jumbos are priced in the lower to mid $0.60’s, with Blanched Splits a penny or two lower. Based on current fundamentals, it doesn’t appear that prices should move much lower, but time will tell. 

The final Stocks and Processing data for the ‘24 crop marketing year was published by the USDA.

• Peanut usage in candy -4.7% vs. prior year.
• Peanut usage in snacks +5.1% vs. prior year.​
• Peanut usage in peanut butter +1% vs. prior year.​
• Total edible peanut usage +0.9% vs. prior year.  ​

Macadamias

Harvesting of nut-in-shells is underway across all major origins, with approximately 80% of the crop already harvested in Australia and South/East Africa.

Australia and parts of East Africa have experienced lower yields compared to earlier forecasts, due to weather-related challenges. Incessant rains in Australia have also impacted quality and yields significantly.

Kernel prices edged up a little through July, supported by sustained demand in Europe and Asia and with news of the short crop.

In-shell prices have held steady, driven by increased processor interest in cracking and increased Chinese buying from South Africa.

China has recently resumed in-shell purchases from Africa. This year, they began with surplus inventory due to over-contracting last season and a strong domestic crop. As their own harvest begins around August/September, they are importing more cautiously. If Chinese demand slows, in-shell prices could ease further.​

• South Africa: South Africa’s 2025 macadamia crop has been revised down to 85,166 tonnes DNIS (from 93,433 tonnes) by SAMAC, due to adverse weather and reduced farm inputs. In KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), flowering was disrupted by a warm autumn. Limpopo experienced cold damage in August 2024, while Mpumalanga faced small nut sizes due to dry, warm conditions and hail damage. Additionally, reduced use of fertilizers and pesticides further impacted yields and quality.​​
  
• Australia: Australia’s 2025 macadamia crop is now projected at around 40,000 tonnes, which is 28% below the earlier forecast of 55,000 tonnes. Persistent rains in key growing regions have caused crop damage and delayed harvests, raising concerns about quality. Farm gate prices opened approximately 20% higher than last year’s lows, driven by a more optimistic kernel outlook.​​​​​ 
  
• Kenya: The first crop harvest is complete, with processors finalizing the last kernel shipments in July/August. Kenya has maintained its ban on NIS exports to support domestic processing this year. Overall, the crop met expectations, and processors are now preparing for the second, smaller crop, which will begin harvesting in September.​​​

Pistachios

Crop Receipts stand at 1.11 billion lbs and with a carry in of 185 million lbs from previous crop, gross inventory stands at 1.29 billion lbs. Additional shrinkage of 30 million lbs from previous month, results in adjusted inventory of 1.11 billion lbs. Low availability overall and even more so for kernel raw material. 

Shipments have slowed down in July, with domestic shipments of 20.3 million lbs, down -5% compared to previous month and export shipments of 43 million lbs, down -19.7% from previous month. Overall shipments until July, stand at 896 million lbs which is -19.5% decrease compared to last year. China market continues to underperform, with YTD July shipments of 153 million lbs, which is a drop of -49%, YoY basis. India with shipments of 34.9 million lbs, a growth of +11.6%, YoY basis and Vietnam with shipments of 49.6 million lbs, a growth of +50.5%, YoY basis posted strong performance.

Inventory of 209 million lbs remains, for last month of the crop season leading to an estimated carryover of 150 million lbs. Due to delayed nutfill, some growers may choose to wait longer to begin harvest, which could increase the risk of insect pressure and staining.