Global Nuts Market & Crop Update

Almonds

August temperatures brought the crop up to speed quickly. With harvest now in full swing, the usual early indicators are showing less than a robust yield from the early orchards.  Sizing is appearing to be smaller than last year as well. With the August heat, it may have taken some weight away, but it is still very early. ​

The final shipment report, released almost three weeks ago, identified total crop receipts of 2.446 billion pounds. This represents a decrease of nearly -5% from the previous crop year’s production of 2.571 billion pounds. With a carry-out last year of 800 million pounds, the industry was able to ship 2.692 billion pounds, up +5% over last year. This should establish a carry-out this year of approximately 451 million pounds, once the additional loss and exempt is accounted for. This will be the smallest carry-out the industry has seen since 2020 and exemplifies an ideal carry-out level. However, in this case, the quality of the material left in the carry-out is not ideal, and finding product to ship over the next month that is not already purchased will be challenging.​

With focus now on the new crop for 2024/2025, the Objective Estimate is reported to be 2.8 billion pounds. Previous expectations had estimated the crop to be larger, in the range of 2.9 to 3.1 billion pounds. While a 2.91 billion-pound crop is actually within the margin of error, so is a smaller crop of 2.68 billion pounds. The industry is currently marketing the 24/25 crop as a 2.8 billion-pound crop until further information is available. ​

The industry is off to a strong start, with over 379 million pounds of new crop already on the books, up 85% from last year when only 205 million pounds had been sold.​

With strong shipments this season and a smaller carry-out, we have seen market firmness over the last six weeks. While current levels are higher than they have been in some time, almonds still represent a great value compared to other tree nuts. Expectations are for this firmness to last through the fourth quarter of 2024. Depending on how the crop turns out, the market may shift accordingly. Buying opportunities may arise in the fourth quarter if shipments do not meet expectations or if the crop turns out to be stronger than estimated. Conversely, if shipments remain strong and the crop appears to be on track with the estimate or smaller, expect to see higher prices leading into the February bloom.​

Cashews

Cashew markets are quiet with limited trading. This is the time of the year when kernel buyers are on vacation and inshell arrivals in Vietnam and India places cash flow pressure and distress sales by processors.​

In-shells:

• As August comes to a close we will see lower inshell availability and then we need to see how much coverage processors have for processing for rest of the year.​
• Tanzania is the next available inshell and it will be end of the year before it is available for processing.​

Kernels:

• Shipments of kernels from all major processing origins across the globe has been a very healthy 25%+ so far till July.​
• Kernel stock availability at destinations, inshell availability with processors are two big questions that will determine the direction of cashew prices from now till the new crop.​

Hazelnuts

Supply Side:

• The new crop season has commenced – the general expectation of the crop is positive, and is expected to be in excess of 750K MT. The news from other origins like Italy, Georgia and Azerbaijan also are good. US crop is expected to be similar to last year​.
• The initial arrivals for the coastal areas have not been of expected quality, with higher defective kernels and higher ratio of smaller calibres. Exporters now await the mid and higher altitude harvests before offering larger quantities.​
• Overall supply should exceed the demand for the coming season. However, if TMO absorbs substantial stocks in the beginning of the season, we might see limitation of supply at times, and prices staying firm​.
• TMO has declared 130 TL/kg for insells - around 8 $/kg kernel equivalent at current exchange rate of 34 TL to the USD. The open market is trading at a discount for now. ​

Demand side:

• Overall demand looks steady. We have seen some slowdown in bakery segment in particular, but confectionery segment seems resilient despite high prices of other ingredients, especially cocoa​.
• Most buyers are covering any open requirements of current season as well as Q4. We expect this buying to continue during August. However, not many enquiries yet for Q1/Q2 2025​.
• Turkish exports for the season end have crossed 300K MT, against expectation that it might stay below last year. ​

Peanuts

The 2024 crop is beginning to see harvesting in some areas in Florida.  The crop in this area is always planted first as they typically have warmer weather earlier.  Due to rains during the planting season, there were essentially two crops planted with a few weeks’ gap in between.  Therefore, this will be a long, drawn-out harvest.  It is beginning to get very dry across much of the southeast U.S. growing region, especially the further west you go.  Crop conditions are still mainly fair to good but are slowly declining due to high temperatures and lack of rainfall. 

Demand for U.S. peanuts continues to hold stable in the 3M ton range.  Domestic usage was on a downward trend, but the most recent numbers suggest that usage could be leveling out.  ​

USDA’s most recent report predicted 1.745M acres to be harvested and production to be 3.4M farmer stock tons (FST).  FSA certified acres this month estimated planted acres were approx. the same as USDA’s estimate, so no surprises there.  ​

USDA recently reduced the carry-in of 2023 crop from ~1M tons to 846k tons and the 2024 carry-out down to 912k tons.  Based on the reduced carryout stocks of 2023 crop, it’s now more important than ever that 2024 crop production be at least close to the 3.4M ton projection in order to keep the market properly supplied. ​

Activity in the U.S. kernel market remains fairly quiet.  2023 crop is becoming extremely difficult to find, at least for some grades.  Prices for 2023 crop kernels have been in the mid to upper $0.60’s. At the moment, 2024 crop kernel prices are holding firm in the mid to upper $0.50’s.  

Macadamias

Key developments in major macadamia growing regions:

• South Africa: South Africa is facing a slight decline in macadamia production this year, with the forecast at 76,753 MT, a 3.7% decrease from last year. This reduction is primarily due to early heavy rains and subsequent cooler summer conditions, which have negatively affected nut size and yield quality in several regions.​
• Australia: Australia is expected to recover from last year’s downturn with a 5.0% increase in production, forecasted at 50,830 MT. Despite challenges such as prolonged heat and wet weather in key growing regions, improved conditions towards the end of the season have supported a positive outlook.​
• Kenya: Kenya's production forecast has been adjusted down slightly to 44,000 MT, a 3.5% increase from last year. The decrease from the initial forecast is attributed to excessive rains in May, which impacted harvesting operations and overall yield.

Pistachios

Crop Receipts of 2023-2024 crop is at 1.49 billion lbs and post adjustment of shrinkage and previous year carry out inventory, leads to Net Inventory of 1.40 billion lbs​
High momentum of export shipments in opening months gradually slowed down with deleting inventory levels. Domestic Shipments were steady across the months. Year till date exports stand at 882 millon lbs which is a +45% YOY increase. On the other hand, domestic shipments reached 232 million lbs, at a YoY growth of +3%. Within export markets, at 300 million lbs, shipments to China grew +95%, YoY and at 274 million lbs, shipments to EU, grew +54%. High availability of material at lower opening price levels, in China enabled further trading from destination markets in Asia Pacific region. Origin prices firmed up after surplus exports in first few months. With one shipment month remaining, inventory levels are at 292 million lbs.​

New crop is expected to be 1.1-1.3 billion lbs with estimated carryout of 200-250 million lbs.