The Almond Board of California released the August Position Report on Thursday, September 12th. This is the first report for the 2024 crop year. Key highlights are below: 

Receipts

Receipts in August were 290 million lbs., up 313.65% from 2023 August receipts of 70.13 million lbs. With record heat drying this crop out, almonds are barely touching the orchard floor before heading straight to the huller/shellers at an abnormally fast rate. This is the exact opposite of last year, where the crop was delayed by 2 weeks in addition to some early harvest rain slowing down harvest considerably vs. the normal rates for Aug. These receipts are in line with industry expectations.

Shipments

Total shipments FTM were 168.28 million lbs., coming in slightly below industry expectations of 180 million lbs. This shipment number is down 20.63% vs. last August’s 212.01 million lbs. Being down vs. last year was to be expected due to the dwindling inventories of the 2023 crop and especially saleable/shippable inventories. With receipts now coming in quickly, CA will look to catch up and exceed the 2023 crop’s shipment pace September forward. 

Domestic shipments were 62.05 million lbs., up 1.03% vs last year’s 61.42 million lbs. Domestic shipments continue at the steady trajectory we saw all last year, with no signs of slowing down. We expect domestic shipments to continue around this rate for the 24 crop year. 

Export shipments were 106.23 million lbs., which is 29.46% down vs last year’s 150.60 million lbs. Export markets were the most affected by the low carry in to the 24 crop. With most items remaining scarce, all major markets, besides Vietnam and India, saw shipments down to start the year. While India shipments were up they still saw less than 900 containers ship into their region which is well below the 1,059 container average they saw for the 23 crop year. These markets will look to rebound next month with fresh 24 crop as they look to refill their local stock positions. 

Sales & Commitments:

Total sales FTM were 159.35 million lbs., down 37.8% vs. last year’s sales of 256.09 million lbs. The most striking point on sales was the different directions on export vs. domestic. Domestic sales were 9.12 million lbs. which is extremely low for this market, and down 83% YoY. Export sales while down 26% were still at 150.23 million lbs. Overall this shows the difference in ability to hold off from buying, with export markets needing to plan for consumption 2-3 months out they need to buy product now in order to get shipments planned. The domestic market has been able to hold off from buying a bit longer to see how harvesting of the 24 crop progresses. 

Commitments for the 2024 crop year stand at 607.58 million lbs., which is down 2.30% vs the 621.89 million lbs. from last year. This total commitment number is largely driven by the domestic market not buying during the month of August. Domestic commitments now sit at their lowest point since August of 2015. With the domestic market now consistently using ~60 million lbs. of almonds per month they only have enough Almonds bought to get them through November. Due to this they will likely have to come back into the market to buy sooner than later. Export commitments sit up 14% YoY with most export markets making sure they have bookings planned to refill critical stock levels at destinations globally.   

Uncommitted 2024 crop inventory sits at 11.08 million lbs., down 68.44% vs last year’s 35.11 million lbs. This number will begin to change rapidly as more Almonds are harvested in the coming months. 

In a Nutshell: 

Overall, the August Position Report was mixed. While most of the fundamentals in shipments, commitments, and sales landed near industry expectations, the final carryout of the 23 crop did not. The final L&E percentage was finalized at 2.11% which is 51,704,224 lbs. this represents almost 2% and 50 million lbs. less that what CA was expecting. This brought final carryout to 502.65 million lbs. However, this product is still poor and will not be useable for normal grades shipping to most markets.

Pricing has gone up considerably in the last month since the July position report. This was not driven on expectations of strong early 2024 crop year position reports but rather the concern on how the 2024 crop is progressing out of the fields. Reports remain pessimistic on actual harvest yields vs early estimate yield expectations, especially in the southern part of the valley.  

Overall, this report is unlikely to cause much of a price change up or downward. The domestic market is still expected to come in over the next few months to buy more almonds for their post Nov needs. In addition, the industry likely won’t have final crop clarity for the 2024 crop till December. With this uncertainty remaining in the market we don’t expect growers/handlers to lower their asking prices at this point.