Almond Market Report
October 4, 2024
Market Update:
If you live in California, it feels more like July or August than October. We are experiencing triple digit temperatures continuing through the first week of October, breaking records every day. This is significant as it relates to harvest, as it must be sped up tremendously to protect the crop still in the orchards, especially the almonds sitting on the orchard floor. This has many concerned as to the quality that we will see as processing continues.
Meanwhile, the market continues to firm up on pollinators and standards due to the uncertainty of the heat and the yield we are seeing thus far, while Nonpareil and Independence are consistently being traded at a steady rate. With shipments down for the first month of the new crop year at 168.28 million pounds, down 20.63% to last year’s 212.01 million lbs. expect to see a stronger turnaround for September. With little inventory to ship in August, new crop Nonpareil and Independence have been shipping for a few weeks now. This should help spike the numbers going forward. The industry has expectations of 240 million pounds, plus or minus, for the month.
Domestic shipments continue to show year-over-year growth, up 1% at 62 million pounds shipped in August, that is a very good sign of things to come. Meanwhile, export shipments, while down 29.5% with 106.23 million pounds shipped versus a year ago 150.60 million pounds, may be affected by timing, which should be made up in the months ahead.
Total new sales for the month were 159.35 million pounds, down 37.8% to last year’s sales of 256.09 million pounds. Sales continue to be slowed by growers unwillingness to go out too far before seeing more of the crop. At this point, the majority are taking the under in crop size from the estimated 2.80 billion pounds.
After roughly 10 weeks of harvest, it has now progressed to the pollinizers (Cals, Carmel, Monterey, Mission, Butte/Padre). This segment does not appear to be making up for where the Nonpareils left off. As mentioned earlier, many do not believe it can reach 2.80 billion pounds. Don’t be fooled by the enormous crop receipt number, as we have explained the urgent need to harvest quickly this year.
One interesting market condition to note is the Inshell market. Not usually discussed here, but important it is, to mention now. Inshell is primarily what is shipped to India and China, for market reasons, Inshell has not risen in price to justify the growers packing it as it has been a deficit to kernel levels. The amount of inshell has to be decided very early on as it goes to the Huller/Sheller by the grower. With kernel prices being higher than Inshell, many growers are shelling out their supply. This will put pressure on Inshell supply going forward as there will be less supply available than usual.
Upcoming Industry Milestones:
- Position Report: October 11, 2024
- Almond Conference (almonds.com): December 10 - 12, 2024
Almond Market Trends - Week 40:
Bullish Trends:
- Almonds remain a value proposition for buyers compared to the other tree nuts. Consumers are in love with almonds and may purchase at a rate of 30% greater with products with almonds contained in them.
- The crop may not reach the objective estimate of 2.80 billion pounds, justifying current market levels. If September shipments are as strong as believed, there may be justification for continued firming.
- The continued heatwave may take a toll on the crop size as moisture is being drained in the orchards.
Bearish Trends:
- Higher prices may weaken demand, as much of the current new crop sales were executed at much lower levels than today.
- Even with a smaller carry-in this year, the 2.80 billion lbs. crop, will exceed last year’s production.
- The recent three-day port strike has caused significant disruptions in supply chains. The strike, initiated by dockworkers demanding better wages and working conditions, has resulted in increased shipping delays and higher logistics costs.