California finally found fall. Temperatures throughout the growing region are getting down into the high 40’s in the morning, but still managing to reach up to 80 degrees during the day. The trees are beginning to sense the change, and leaves are starting to drop. Growers will give their trees a good dose of irrigation and post-harvest fertilization before the winter sets in and the trees go dormant. 

The warm fall harvest has come in at a rapid pace, with almonds no sooner hitting the ground before they are being picked up. Most huller/shellers are expecting to be done with processing by the end of November and are currently more than halfway done at this point. 

In the meantime, crop receipts by comparison to a year ago are up 65.50% 1.04 billion pounds. Last year, by stark contrast, we were sitting at 625.40 million pounds received. This has made it a bit more complicated to precisely understand where yields will be compared to the Objective Estimate of 2.80 billion pounds. Most of California believes the crop will fall short of the estimate.  We continue to see a firming market as growers are reluctant to get too far down the road. Yet new crop sales in September were very strong, with 273.38 million pounds sold, that should translate to strong shipments for the fourth quarter.

Domestic shipments stumbled in September, down 11%, with 55.94 million pounds shipped vs. last year’s 62.84 million pounds. This was likely a function of a low carry-out and lack of availability of more popular varieties and sizes needed for the domestic market.  

Export shipments were stronger with 157.62 million pounds shipped,  up a modest 1.8% versus a year ago 154.82 million pounds. While only up slightly, exports during this period were especially impressive as they were mainly comprised of nonpareil while the pollinators were still being harvested.  

Domestic commitments trail last year, down 18.80% at 211.33 million pounds with a year ago being at 260.26 million pounds. Two things possibly at play, sellers not selling, and buyers not buying.  Whereas Export commitments are up 10.20% at 456.06 million pounds with a year ago being at 413.86 million. Both markets remain uncovered past December, so we will see stronger sales continue in the months ahead, and once the crop is more revealed, everyone will come to the table. 

Upcoming Industry Milestones:

• Position Report:  November 12, 2024
• Almond Conference (almonds.com): December 10 - 12, 2024
• PTNPA Scottsdale AZ: January 17 - 20, 2025

Bullish Trends:

• The crop has come in quickly and we will understand the crop size sooner than what has historically been the case. General sentiment is that turnouts are off versus the estimate, perhaps brought on by the excessive heat we had in the final weeks leading up to and through harvest, pulling moisture from the almonds. 
• With a lower carry-out and a shorter crop, this could lead to less almonds to sell this year. The result has been continued firming over the last two months. 
• Even with that, almonds remain a better value alternative to other tree nuts and demand continues to pull on the supply.  Production lines at the processors remain full. 

Bearish Trends:

• Higher prices may change buying practices, deterring buyers from booking long spread business and remain only buying a couple months at a time. 
• Even with a smaller carry-in this year, if the crop does come in as estimated at 2.80 billion lbs., supply would exceed last year’s production. 
• The weatherman is calling for a warmer, dryer winter this year, which could lead to perfect bloom weather, which could then lead to a larger crop next season.  This may lead to a buying opportunity in the second quarter. Uncertainty does not help anyone.