Almond Market Report
October 14, 2024
Market Update:
The Almond Board of California released the September Position Report on Friday, October 11th. This is the first report for the 2024 crop year. Key highlights are below:
Receipts
Receipts in September were 744.94 million lbs., up 34.2% from last September’s receipts of 555.27 million lbs. This brings total receipts for the crop year to 1.035 billion lbs. up 65.5% vs last years 625.40 million lbs. Harvest in CA has continued to progress smoothly after a much earlier start compared to last year. This trend has already continued into October, with the month starting off with consecutive days still seeing the temperature over 100 degrees Fahrenheit. This has and will continue to allow the crop to be harvested/hulled and shelled at an expedited rate. Low carry in has also caused handlers to bring in product quicker than the last few year so that they can pack and ship out product. All these factors have combined to show strong receipts to start the year. Consensus from growers/handlers is that the crop still is somewhere between 2.65-2.8 billion lbs.
Shipments
Total shipments FTM were 213.56 million lbs., coming in below industry expectations of 240 million lbs. However, this shipment number is only down 1.89% vs. last September’s 217.67 million lbs. While this shipment number missed industry expectations it is still a strong number for September when considering this would have largely been NP and inshell varieties. Pollinator varieties, which have been some of the most sought after grades for many markets, were just being harvested during his period and unavailable for shipment during September.
Domestic shipments were 55.94 million lbs., down 11.0% vs last year’s 62.84 million lbs. Domestic shipments saw a slight dip for the September period. This is likely partly due to the fact the domestic market takes many pollinator grades that were unavailable for this shipment period. It will look to bounce back next month closer to its ~60 million lbs. monthly average it established last year.
Export shipments were 157.62.23 million lbs., which is 1.8% up vs last year’s 154.82 million lbs. Export shipments were also a function of what was available to ship out of CA. The NP markets in the ME were up 110% MoM due to CA having availability on these varieties and strong demand out of this region. Western Europe continues to be down YoY and MoM, but we expect this trend to change starting next month when CA finally has pollinators available for shipments. India was down MoM by 13%, this is largely due to the fact we have seen more limited origin buying from this market as they remain the only market with some stocks on ground. With incoming stock now slowing down into this region India will likely have to come in to buy more from origin in the following months after depleting local stocks.
Sales & Commitments:
Total sales FTM were 273.38 million lbs., up 1.3% vs. last year’s sales of 269.89 million lbs. Domestic sales were 83.28 million lbs. up 17% and export sales were 190.10 million lbs. down 4% vs last September. As expected the domestic markets needed to start buying as they were historically uncovered for the time period. Export markets continue to buy to make sure they have shipments planned for their dwindling local stocks. Overall this was a strong sales month for CA. This is especially true considering that all sales made in Sep would have been at the new higher levels CA has been asking for. This shows support in the market for new pricing and a considerable amount of new confirmed business.
Commitments for the 2024 crop year stand at 667.39 million lbs., which is down 1.0% vs the 674.12 million lbs. from last year. This total commitment number still shows that export markets are better covered than the domestic market vs their historical amounts. However, both regions are covered for roughly 3 months worth of shipments and will need to continue to buy.
Uncommitted 2024 crop inventory sits at 467.75 million lbs., up 51.19% vs last year’s 309.38 million lbs. This number will continue to climb as more almonds are harvested in the coming months.
In a Nutshell:
Overall, the September Position Report was a lot of what was expected. Sales and commitments were both strong and show support for the new pricing CA has asked for since harvest started. Shipments while missing expectations saw an immediate increase MoM, and were near last year’s number. Receipts continue to come in fast and strong due to good harvest weather, especially when compared to last year’s delayed and wet harvest.
Pricing has stabilized in Sep after seeing bullishness since July. With pricing stabilized we have now seen willingness to conclude new business form both the selling and buying sides. This report is unlikely to see any further pricing increases in the near term till a clearer picture of crop size is had in December. On the flip side we might see some buyers try to bid lower due to the strong receipts number. However with CA expecting early strong receipts they likely will look to hold firm to their pricing asks.
Overall, while this report is positive from a new business perspective we will still need a few more months of data to have a clear picture on final crop size. This final crop size clarity is what will be needed to move pricing one way or the other. With pollinators beginning to ship in Oct we expect another strong shipment month on the next position report which will keep CA in a comfortable shipment position.