The Almond Board of California released the October Position Report on Tuesday, November 12th. This is the third report for the 2024 crop year. Key highlights are below: 

Receipts

Receipts in October were 810.28 million lbs., up 14.3% from last October’s receipts of 708.86 million lbs. This brings total receipts for the crop year to 1.845 billion lbs. up 38.3% vs last year’s 1.334 billion lbs. Harvest in CA has now been completed throughout the state. Overall, harvest proceeded smoothly and quickly this year. This along with harvest starting earlier has allowed receipts to come in at a much faster rate than the 2023 crop was able to come in at. In addition lower carryover inventory at handlers has forced handlers to pick up product at an expedited rate from the hullers. We expect the October receipt number to be the highest receipt number for the 2024 crop and expect to see receipts now decline into Nov and Dec. Industry sentiment remains that this crop will still finalize at less than 2.8 billion lbs.  

Shipments

Total shipments FTM were 258.4 million lbs., coming in below industry expectations of 280 million lbs. However, this shipment number is still up 4.5% vs. last September’s 247.40 million lbs. While this shipment number missed industry expectations it is once again a strong number for October. In fact this month exceeds all shipment months for the 2023 crop year and is the strongest shipment month in 18 months, going back to March of the 22 crop. 

Domestic shipments were 67.44 million lbs., up 18.2% vs last year’s 57.05 million lbs. Domestic shipments saw their best month in over 2 years. This was expected, as they bounced back from a low September shipment number. We expect domestic shipments to hover in the mid 60 million lbs. on average per month for the remainder of the crop year. 

Export shipments were 191.00 million lbs., which is .3% up vs last year’s 190.35 million lbs. Export shipments were strong in the ME market, building off a strong September shipment period. Most of the larger exports besides the ME were down vs last October and remain down for the crop year. This was expected in the India region as this market has remained off the market for the majority of the early crop year. However with shipments now down 39% for the month and 16% for the year this will likely result in consumption of local stocks and afloat cargos, resulting in this region needing to participate in buying from origin. Europe was the largest surprise, once again being 9% down for them month. Late news out of CA reported packers seeing vessels roll from the last week of October into November, which likely hurt this number. This miss in shipments to Europe vs last year will likely keep the local stock position tight for the next few months resulting in continued shipments/buying from the CA origin.     

Sales & Commitments:

Total sales FTM were 264.74 million lbs., up 5.6% vs. last year’s sales of 250.75 million lbs. Domestic sales were 71.25 million lbs. up 4% and export sales were 193.49 million lbs. up 6% vs last October. This was an especially strong shipment month for CA and beat market expectations of 200-250 million lbs. This sales number shows that both buyers and sellers continue to see a healthy market from a pricing sense. Pricing is being proven with confirmed sales in both the domestic and export markets. This will give continued support to current pricing, with CA looking to continue gradually inching the pricing up. 

Commitments for the 2024 crop year stand at 673.69 million lbs., which is down .56% vs the 677.47 million lbs. from last year. This total commitment number still shows that export markets are better covered than the domestic market vs their historical amounts. However, both regions remain only covered for roughly 3 months’ worth of shipments. This remains consistent with CA’s strategy of only selling 3 months out. This strategy worked last year for CA and we expect them to stick with it, which would keep commitments in this range for the entire crop year.

Uncommitted 2024 crop inventory sits at 997.09 million lbs., up 32.4% vs last year’s 753.32 million lbs. This number will continue to climb as more almonds are harvested in the coming months. 

In a Nutshell: 

The October Position Report was another strong report for CA. Sales and commitments remain strong and show support for the new pricing CA has asked for since harvest started. With higher priced almonds now beginning to make their way into the supply chain this will likely give buyers the confidence that the new pricing is here to stay. Shipments, while missing expectations, had the strongest shipment month in a year and a half.

Receipts will be the one point that will be watched closely by both buyers and sellers. Early receipts were expected to be strong due to the nature of the 2024 harvest period, but the industry will now expect these receipts to slow down. Industry sentiment remains that the 2024 crop will come in under 2.8 billion lbs., but we will not have this number finalized until January.      

Overall, this report was another bullish report for CA. Even with higher pricing CA has now seen continued sales and strong shipments for the last 2 months, with no signs of slowing down in November. With strong reports now expected for the remainder of the calendar year we expect pricing to remain firm and possibly inch up over the next few months. Any large price swings up or down will not be seen until January as that is when we expect the final 2024 crop size will become more clear.