Weather throughout the almond growing region has been favorable thus far. However, there is a short heat wave coming towards the end of the week with temperatures expected to reach 102 degrees in the valley. It is very early for these types of temperatures and hopefully it is not signaling for things to come. If you will recall at the end of the growing season last year, we had a massive heatwave that took as much as 1% of the moisture out of some almond orchards following shaking. This may have been a root cause in the crop being short this year. 

The Almond Board released the April position report on May 12, 2025. The crop receipts now rest at 2.708 billion pounds, and still well below the USDA estimate of 2.80 billion pounds. The industry still expects the crop to finish around 2.72 billion pounds. Since the report, the market has remained firm and with scarcity in the most popular grades and sizes, that is not likely to change. The industry will need to have 500 million to 550 million pounds of carry-out to maintain a smoother transition from the current crop to the new crop.

Shipments:

Total shipments year to date are at 2.051 billion pounds, about -1.4% below last year at this time. With less overall supply, we may see this trend continue down or have a very difficult transition in September and October. Comparing shipments to previous years at this time may be pointless as conditions are not comparable to previous years with the shortage of overall supply. Currently, the average monthly shipments are 228 million pounds. The industry cannot maintain this shipment level without having a great deal of restrictions during that transition period between current crop and new crop. 

Domestic shipments were dismal for the month with only 53 million pounds shipped in April, off almost 18% from a year ago. This leaves us down -5.2% for the year and continues with a downward trend we have seen since October (being that last positive month). Meanwhile Export shipments remain strong with 188 million pounds shipped in April up 6% to last year, however, are flat to a year ago in total shipments. Nonetheless, market expectations are that export shipments may still end up positive for the crop year as many markets remain uncovered. 

Sales & Commitments: Sales in April were below last April’s 218.6 million pounds with 192.5 million pounds down 12% over last year. With that being the case, further comparisons show that this April’s new crop sales was easily the second best for an April. With several crop estimates now being stated amongst the industry pundits for the 2025/2026 crop year averaging 2.7 billion pounds and that of the USDA’s estimate of 2.8 billion pounds, monthly sales should be strong for the remainder of the crop year. With commitments at 525 million pounds, down -5% from last year’s 552.6 million pounds, this seems to reflect domestic uncertainty. Domestic buyers are waiting to see improvements in domestic shipments with increased consumption at retail before we may see stronger commitments from them.  

Uncommitted inventory is sitting at 581 million lbs. up 4.3% versus last year at this time. Yet this is a very low uncommitted number to have as we struggle for supply crossing the finish line for this crop year.    

Upcoming Industry Milestones:

• Position Report:  June 12, 2025
• Objective Estimate: July 10, 2025

Bullish Trends:

• Forecasting shipments through the remainder of the crop year shows that the industry is on par to manage the carry-out of below 500 million pounds which could create shortages.    
• Pricing levels continuing to be firm on all grades and have shown acceptance by buyers of all segments. 
• All indicators are that the crop year 2025/2026 will be similar to the current crop year in tonnage. This will keep pricing firm and in range of what it is today.

Bearish Trends:

• Tariff concerns continue to be a cloud over California’s head, this could be a game changer for what the industry can do in the export market. California exports 70% of the almond crop. 
• The domestic market is of real concern and could be an indicator for what the future holds for all markets.
• While bloom was labeled questionable by many growers, California had great bloom weather followed by an excellent growing season thus far. The subjective estimate has not been dependable for the last 4 years.