The Almond Board of California released the "April Position Report" on Tuesday, May 14th. This is the ninth report for the 2023 crop year. Key highlights and takeaways are below: 

Receipts: 

Receipts in April were 1.90 million pounds, down 91.7% from last April’s receipts of 22.74 million pounds. Receipts fell this month and are quickly coming to an end. The crop looks unlikely to eclipse 2.45 billion pounds.

 

Shipments:

Total shipments for the month were 241.48 million pounds, coming in well above industry expectations of 220 million pounds, this was up 22.4% versus last year. Shipments remain on a strong pace to finish the year and look all but certain to finish the year up YoY. 

Domestic shipments were 64.81 million pounds, up 22.4% versus last year’s 56.82 million pounds. This was the best domestic shipment number of the crop year. Domestic shipments remain in the 57 to 64 million pound range that we have seen this crop year. Total shipments for the domestic market are slightly up YTD but month-to-month shipments remain extremely consistent. We expect this trend to continue until the end of the crop year.  

Export shipments were 176.67 million pounds, which is 25.8% up versus last year’s 140.44 million pounds. Export shipments remain the star of this crop year, up 5.61% on the year. We still expect export shipments in some regions to have challenges keeping this pace due to low available items for India and the ME as the crop year comes to a close.  

 

Sales & Commitments:

Total sales for the month were 218.63 million pounds, up an impressive 90.6% versus last year’s sales of 114.68 million pounds. This was another good sales month for CA and shows that they have not taken any time off the selling side this crop year. If this continues, the sales strategy out of CA will likely ensure that shipments will finish the crop year strong. 

 

Commitments:

Commitments for the 2023 crop year stand at 552.68 million pounds, which is down 2.12% versus the 564.65 million pounds from last year. Commitments remain steady versus last year, even with YTD shipments for the year being up 4.24%. Commitments for this crop year could fall as we approach the end of the year as CA’s uncommitted inventory continues to fall. 

Uncommitted inventory currently sits at 557.72 million pounds, down 29.3% versus last year’s 788.75 million pounds. With a smaller crop, good shipments YTD, and consistent sales, we have now seen uncommitted inventory drop drastically. Available inventory for the remainder of the crop year will be tight. This low uncommitted inventory coupled with the high SD seen on this crop will make "Extra" and "Supreme" almond grades even harder to find. 

 

In a Nutshell:

This story over the last month has been about the 3 billion pound projected 2024 crop, but the 2023 crop is coming to a close with an over performance versus industry expectations from a demand perspective.  

This report hit the trifecta of bullish news. Receipts were down, while sales and shipments were up for the month. While a strong report was expected, these numbers still beat expectations. After this news, CA will be unlikely to take any cheaper prices than they have seen over the last month, and depending on grade they will likely try to raise pricing for the items expected to be in tight supply for the end of the crop year. 

While the crop year transition will be tight, we are still expecting a larger crop for the 2024 crop year than we had in the 2023 crop year. This will likely keep CA on the market to make sales, but after this bullish report they will likely look to hold firm at current pricing. 

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• Objective Estimate: July 10, 2024