The Almond Board of California released the April Position Report on Tuesday, May 10th. This is the 9th report for the 2024 crop year. Key highlights are below: 

Receipts

Receipts in February were 8.17 million lbs., up 330.6% from last April’s receipts of 1.90 million lbs. This brings total receipts for the crop year to 2.71 billion lbs., up 11.1% vs last year’s 2.44 billion lbs. Crop receipts continue to slow rapidly and the 2024 crop will likely finalize below 2.72 billion lbs., significantly below all 2023 crop estimates.   

Shipments

Total shipments FTM were 241.10 million lbs., coming in above industry expectations of 235 million lbs. This shipment number is down 0.2% vs. last April’s 241.48 million lbs. Total shipments are currently 1.42% down vs last year’s strong shipments. However, the last quarter of the crop 2023 year saw only an average of 204 million lbs. per month, well below the current 228 million lbs. shipment pace seen so far in the 2024 crop year.    

Domestic shipments were 53.30 million lbs., down 17.8% vs last year’s 64.81 million lbs. Domestic shipments had another bad performance vs. last year. This is now the second month in a row with a double digit percentage drop YoY. This domestic shipment number is the most concerning number in the April position report, and now bring YTD shipments into this region 5.20% down. Domestic has struggled more than even most export markets that have had to deal with tariff uncertainty in their regions.   

Export shipments were 187.81 million lbs., which is 6.3% up vs last year’s 176.67 million lbs. Export shipments were the star of this report and almost entirely made up for the domestic shipment down turn. This strong shipment month was lead by both India and European markets having double digit increases vs last April. These shipments were expected to come at some point as both these markets had been down YTD. With India and Europe still remaining down YTD after such a strong shipment month it leads a possibility for this number to be repeated again this year. This could help export shipments end the year up vs. last year. 

Sales & Commitments: Total sales FTM were 192.55 million lbs., down 11.9% vs. last year’s sales of 218.63 million lbs. While at first glance this was a weak sales number, it was still comfortably the second best sales number for April ever. This sales number was ~25 million lbs. over the third best sales number of 168 million lbs. seen in April of the 2022 crop. April sales slowed down towards the end of the month as most buyers and sellers geared up for additional crop estimates, now that these estimates have passed we are hearing inquiries and business once again picking up.     

Commitments for the 2024 crop year stand at 525.07 million lbs., which is down 5.0% vs the 552.68 million lbs. from last year. The domestic market remains the most behind in historical commitment levels. While we believe higher pricing has affected domestic buyers willingness to book volumes, we also believe there is some uncertainty for some buyer as it relates to consumer consumption for their products. We will have to see if domestic shipments recover to give domestic buyers more confidence in future purchases. The export markets remain farther covered than last year and continue to be active at all new price points.

Uncommitted 2024 crop inventory sits at 581.46 million lbs., up 4.3% vs last year’s 557.72 million lbs. Uncommitted Inventory continues to drive lower now that receipts are all but done. This low uncommitted inventory level will put the most pressure on pricing in the near term as some items become unavailable till new crop.  

In a Nutshell: 

The April Position Report was a status quo report for the industry. Shipments beat expectations and nearly matched last year’s highest shipment month. However, shipments for domestic continue to be a concern even if exports overperformance keeps shipments steady. Sales were good but not great and uncommitted inventory is slightly higher than this time last year in which we saw a lack of availability quickly push prices up.    

While many eyes were waiting for the position report, even more eyes were on the Subjective Estimate released. With the subjective estimate coming in at 2.8 billion lbs. it brought further stability to pricing. This would be a similar crop size to where we expect this year to finalize. With all major pre objective crop estimates now in, most in the industry are expecting a 2025 crop somewhere between 2.65-2.8 billion lbs.

Overall, this position report coupled with crop estimates for the 2025 crop that are similar to last year will likely keep the market in the current pricing range. This current status quo is likely to stay until new info is available when the 2025 crop objective estimate is released July 10th.  

Link to Position Report