We reported just a few weeks back that the weather in California really turned in February. After the snowpack ended January at only 66% to normal, the middle of February through today has really changed and the storm door opened. It has been March Madness in the Sierra’s with back to back to back storms coming through, bringing the current snow pack to 92% over the last two weeks. This means a great deal since California relies on the snowpack for up to 40% of our water supply. With a few more weeks of March still to go, it has turned out to be a significant gain which will help ease water restriction this summer.

With the bloom now behind us, over the next few weeks nutlet growth will be assessed and determination of bud set will be made. It is early but some growers are concerned with the shortage of healthy bee hives in the orchards and that it may not be as good as it could have been. Overall weather during the bloom was good. However, talk of “bloom density was less than ideal” yet this did vary up and down the state. It appeared to be more prevalent in the south than it was as one moved further north. Again it is very early, but the current mind-set is that the 2025/2026 crop may be closer to this year’s 2.7 billion pound crop than it would to be a record breaker. Time will tell and estimates from pundits will soon begin to be espoused.

Market Sentiment:

The Almond Board of California released the February positioing report last week on March 11. This marks the 7th month of the crop year, so we are past the half way point for the current crop year. With that, crop receipts have fallen off the pace compared to last year. With 17 million pounds received in February it brings total receipts now to 2.68 billion pounds. This should bring total crop this year to 2.7 billion pounds off by 100,000 million pounds to the objective estimate and 300 million pounds to the subjective estimate, that’s why they are called estimates. This does suggest that we will have an even tighter transition in August through October than we did last year. We are already seeing shortages of all Cal varieties and sizes. Restrictions of smaller sizes being most prevalent. 

Shipments:

February shipments were 215 million pounds down 2.8% to last year, and below industry expectations of 220 million pounds. As February was a shorter month, look to see March making up for this shortfall. With that said, industry expectations are for a similar shipment month for March staying on the conservative side. Total shipments are trending to flat to last year overall. However, it may become difficult to maintain this current pace. As inventories are reduced it will be harder and harder to find usable material in the remaining tonnage. 

Domestic shipments were 56 million lbs. down -4.4% to a year ago. Expectations are for shipments to remain in this range throughout the remainder of the crop year averaging just under 60 million pounds a month. Export shipments were at 159 million lbs. also down, - 2.2% vs last year’s 162 million lbs. Export markets continue to purchase hand to mouth, with most uncovered through the second half of the year. Inventories are low and as it becomes more evident that a buying opportunity will most likely not develop, it may be difficult to cover their remaining needs as growers remain reluctant to sell past their comfort zone. 

Sales & Commitments: Sales for the month of February were consistent with expectations with 221 million pounds sold. This is up a modest 3% vs last year. With good bloom weather sellers were willing to offer more with confidence, and buyers were there to fill their needs in the months ahead. This was mainly export markets purchasing in February with transit time in mind. As domestic sales were heavier in January and took more of a wait and see attitude during the bloom. With Commitments at 577 million lbs. down -8.5%, the domestic market remains the least committed. One would believe however, that is more of a function for growers unwillingness to book out long earlier in the crop year. As we have now seen market levels improve, there may be more of a willingness to fill the customer’s remaining needs going forward. While Export markets may be in a better situation, their low inventories will force them back to the table with consistent monthly buying. 

Finally with Uncommitted inventory sitting at 965 million lbs. up 4% from the 929 million lbs. this same time last year, total uncommitted has dropped below a billion pounds. We may see that uncommitted inventory that remains void of many popular grades and sizes, as it continues to shrink. The industry will try to target a 500 million pound carry-out which appears to already be a challenge when forecasting shipments for the remainder of the year.

Upcoming Industry Milestones:

• Position Report:  April 10, 2025

Bullish Trends:

• Shipments remain on track for in conjunction with shorter crop than expected.
• With pricing levels continuing to be firm on the lower grades, the delta between higher grades is becoming narrower. Watch for the higher grades to be pushed up as a result. 
• Speculation on overall bloom results may keep prices firm on the remaining crop as inventories shrink and expectation of next year’s crop remains in question.

Bearish Trends:

• The on and off tariff news remains the elephant in the room. What will retaliation tariffs look like and what will it do for future exports? 
• There were tick downs in shipments for both domestic and export overall down -2.8%. The industry is now behind overall shipments to last year. 
• While bloom density was a concern. California had great weather during the bloom followed by rainstorms, plenty of snow in the Sierra’s all set up for strong water supplies for the summer.