Temperatures throughout the growing region are expected to hit highs of 119 degrees in some areas.  The heat dome is expected to last for 10 days and will most certainly catch the crop back up if it was ever behind. Growers will be adding all the irrigation they are able to, with the sole purpose of keeping the orchards from stressing out too much. 

The current crop continues to be thinly traded as supply may be in question as we head to the end of the crop year.  This will most likely be the case through harvest until new crop is available and all early orders are fulfilled.  We saw the May shipment report released on June 11th, and it was the second-largest shipping month for any May period in history.  With 226 million pounds having shipped, this was +15.5% ahead of last year, bringing the industry 5.25% ahead of last year overall. The industry has now shipped over 2.3 billion pounds of almonds through the current crop year. With only two months left for this season, it would appear that this will also be the second largest shipping season in history, second only to the 20/21 crop year when we 2.898 billion pounds following a 3.1 billion pound harvest.  

These strong shipments this season do not go without consequences as it has put a great deal of pressure on current stocks remaining. Most if not all of the popular varieties and grades have become difficult to find. As processors run their final stocks, things will pop up so don’t give up, keep calling. 

This marks a three-year process that it has taken for the industry to work through.  With three years of declining crop production and improved demand, the supply and demand curves have finally crossed at a favorable position for the growers.  This years crop will settle in near 2.44 billion pounds. We have to go back to the 2018/2019 crop year to find this low of production. Meanwhile, the subjective estimate is predicting a bounce back in the crop to 3.0 billion pounds.  This will certainly be on everyone’s mind as we approach the objective estimate scheduled for July 10th, quickly followed by the June position report the following day. 

Upcoming Industry Milestones:

• Objective Estimate: July 10, 2024
• Position Report: July 11, 2024

Bullish Trends:

• The market has reacted to the remaining tight supply. This will continue and seems to have pulled new crop pricing up with it. With over 173 million pounds already in the books for new crop, this is over three times that of last year’s new crop sales for the same time period.  With the objective estimate only weeks away we have seen even new crop offers now hard to find.
• Additionally new sales for current crop were 134 million pounds up 18% versus last years new sales of 114 million, and will contribute to a very tight transition with a carry-out of less than 450 million pounds.
• Even with a larger crop on the horizon, supply will be more balanced now with future demand. 

Bearish Trends:

• Should the Objective Estimate grow beyond the 3 billion pounds estimated, this could potentially throw that fragile balance out of sync.  This is especially important as shipping costs are increasing globally and three times what they were only a few months ago as containers are being pulled back to China.
• As supply has dwindled, there may be little to ship in August or September as processors wait to harvest and ship new crop. This may lead to a slow start to the new crop year.
• The Objective Estimate could certainly be the game changer, and everyone is patiently waiting for the next couple of weeks before making further decisions.