Temperatures have remained moderate through the valley during the growing season. No serious heat waves to be concerned with thus far. The trees are looking healthy as we speed towards first harvest, now only three or four weeks away in the southern part of the state. Last year we experienced a devastating heat wave which may have contributed to almost 1 million net pounds of crop that was lost, bringing the crop to 2.72 billion pounds rather than the 2.8 billion pounds that was expected. This year, expectations remain that we will see a similar size crop to last year of 2.8 billion pounds if all continues as indicated, barring any heatwave in August that may influence crop yields during harvest. We will also discover what the USDA has uncovered throughout the orchards in two weeks when the objective estimate is released on the 10th of July. 

The Almond Board released the May position report on June 12, 2025. The crop receipts now rest at 2.71 billion pounds, and still well below the USDA estimate of 2.80 billion pounds. The industry still expects the crop to finish around 2.72 billion pounds. Since the report, the market remained firm until last week when we saw levels for standards start to weaken. With forward demand questionable, we finish the crop year with growers and suppliers working to sell off inventory in preparations for harvest and new crop. 

Shipments:

Total shipments year to date are at 2.262 billion pounds, about -1.9% below last year at this time. While it was a larger crop than last year, the carryout from the previous year was much smaller thus overall supply is down. Therefore, we may see this trend continue declining otherwise a tight transition in September and October may take place. This may be preferred given the current economy. Currently, the average monthly shipments over the last 10 months is 226 million pounds. The industry cannot maintain this shipment level in the last two months of the crop year and maintain a respectable transition in August through September. Expect to see a lower shipment for June of around 200 million pounds. 

Domestic shipments were weak for the month with only 51 million pounds shipped in May, off over 22% from a year ago. This leaves us down -6.3% for the year and continues with a downward trend we have experienced since October (being the last positive month). Really one could say this has been a multiyear trend as almond demand domestically has trended down ever since post Covid. The industry will look for answers in the near future to combat the weakening of our largest market. Meanwhile, export shipments remain strong with 161 million pounds shipped in May, up .2% to last year, remaining flat in total shipments to a year ago. Nonetheless, market expectations are that export shipments may still end up positive for the crop year as India has come back strong over the last three months and is expected to continue with this trend. Meanwhile, China will depend mostly on Australia for their almond needs due to the current tariff in place.

Sales & Commitments: Sales in May were one of the weakest sales months I have ever seen. Only 89 million pounds were sold, down 34% over last year’s sales of 134 million pounds. As a result, we have seen pricing levels come down as the market looks for interested partners. With the subjective estimate of 2.8 billion pounds, interest in new crop has not really been there. New crop sales of 66 million pounds versus last year’s new crop sales of 173 million pounds is off 62%. The reality of pricing for new crop not being a value over current crop levels has created no advantage. Buyers will wait.  

With commitments also down 402 million pounds versus last year’s 460 million pounds off 12.7%, this has essentially been driven by the domestic market and uncertainty of forward demand. Uncommitted inventory is sitting at 495 million lbs. up 17% versus last year. Uncommitted will soon start to drive down as we will see the market start to become active as the industry strives to sell off current crop as well as layer on new crop sales for the fourth quarter of 2025.      

Upcoming Industry Milestones:

• Position Report:  July 10, 2025
• Objective Estimate: July 10, 2025

Bullish Trends:

• Despite the May report forecasting shipments through the remainder of the crop year shows that the industry is on par to manage the carry-out of approximately 500 million pounds which could create shortages of specific sizes and varieties.   
• Pricing levels are now competitive to work through the remaining crop, and new crop pricing for the fourth quarter is attractive. This will bring buyers to the table.  
• All indicators are that the crop year 2025/2026 will be similar to the current crop year in tonnage. This will keep pricing manageable for both sellers and buyers.    

Bearish Trends:

• The May report overall was weaker than expected especially new sales. Tariff concerns continue to be a cloud over California’s head, and this could be a game changer for what the industry can do in the export market. California exports 70% of the almond crop.  
• The domestic market is the real concern and has been driving the market down. The industry will need to solve this issue in order to draw consumers back to the snacking category.
• The orchards are looking great right now and while the industry is calling for a similar crop to last year, don’t be surprised if the USDA’s objective estimate says otherwise.