Almond Market Report

June 12, 2024

Market Update:

Market Update

The Almond Board of California released the "May Position Report" on Tuesday, June 11th. This is the tenth report for the 2023 crop year. Key highlights are below:



Receipts in May were .44 million lbs., down 83.7% from last May’s receipts of 2.70 million lbs. Receipts are all but finished and we expect the crop to finalize near 2.44 billion lbs.



Total shipments FTM were 226.06 million lbs., coming in just above industry expectations of 220 million lbs., this was up 15.5% vs last year. Shipments have not slowed down and have now likely secured a carryout of sub 450 million lbs.


Domestic shipments were 65.65 million lbs., up 19.5% vs last year’s 54.94 million lbs. Domestic shipments built on its strong momentum from last month by having the best domestic shipment number of the crop year. Domestic shipments have now put themselves in a spot to finish the crop year up YTD for the first time since the 20/21 crop. Current domestic shipments currently sit at up 2.33% YTD.


Export shipments were 160.41 million lbs., which is 14.0% up vs last year’s 140.73 million lbs. Export shipments continue to strongly outperform vs. last year and are up 6.35% on the year. All Major regions, besides Western Europe, were up for the month. India and the ME have been the strongest export markets from both YTD and FTM metrics for the 23 crop year.  


Sales & Commitments: Total sales FTM were 134.19 million lbs., up 17.7% vs last year’s sales of 113.98 million lbs. This was another good sales month for CA and puts CA in the best position to finish this crop year with continued good shipment numbers. This was also the first month in which New Crop Commitments were reported and they sit at 173.12 million lbs., this is a 201% increase vs last year’s opening commitments of 57.45 million lbs. This shows CA has been making sales for the 24 crop at a faster pace that it did last year. 


Commitments for the 23 crop year stand at 460.81 million lbs., which is down 4.58% vs the 482.96 million lbs. from last year. Commitments have now started to dwindle as the 23 crop year nears its end. However, total commitments of both 23 and 24 crop years stand at 633.94 million lbs. which is up 17.3% vs last year’s 540.41 million lbs. 

Uncommitted inventory currently sits at 423.96 million lbs., down 37.42% vs last year’s 677.42 million lbs. Uncommitted inventory continues to drop rapidly. Available inventory is even lower than this number suggests due to an additional ~54 million lbs. of loss and exempt that will be added at the end of the crop year. (Current Reject % currently sits at 4.22% vs the budgeted 2.00%). In addition, a large amount of this uncommitted inventory is likely to be low grade products and not standard USDA grade almonds. 


In a Nutshell: 

Overall, the May Position Report is likely to fuel bullish sentiment in CA. This was another great shipment month and total commitments are now up vs last year.    

Export shipments have been the bright spot of this entire crop year, but now domestic shipments are now finishing the year strong. If these current trends continue over the last 2 months of the crop year, then both export and domestic shipments will finish up YoY for the first time since the 20/21 crop year.  

This report likely will ensure current pricing won’t see any slippage in the near term. Uncommitted inventory ensures that CA will have few remaining almonds to sell and ship before the 24 crop is harvested. On top of this, CA has sold new crop more aggressively than it has the previous year. This will help ensure CA has early shipments to take some pressure off needing a large amount of additional 24 crop sales early on.     

Upcoming Industry Milestones:

  • Objective Estimate: July 10, 2024
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