The heat dome in California remains in effect as we have had two weeks of temperatures in triple digits. It is expected to last for another 7 days before it drops to the low 90s. Growers will pay close attention as we are still a couple of weeks away from harvest, so trees will still need to be irrigated until that time. The heat has kept the crop on time, with harvest starting in the southernmost part of the state possibly within the next 10 days. 

As discussed a week ago, the Objective Estimate was reported the crop to be 2.8 billion pounds. The industry had expected somewhere in the range of 2.9 to 3.1. The industry will have to market the 24/25 crop as a 2.8 billion pound crop until harvest has been completed to see if it is accurate or not.  With a strong shipment report for June in the books at 206 million pounds, shipments were up 10.5% over last June.  The industry has now shipped over 2.51 billion pounds.  With July shipments left to go, it is very possible that we will see a carryout less than 450 million pounds.  This has led to little current crop remaining, which has been very evident for weeks now. Other than manufactured being available, it is nearly impossible to find any brown skin out there. 

These strong shipments this season do not go without consequences as it has put a great deal of pressure on current stocks remaining. Most, if not all, of the popular varieties and grades have become difficult to find. As processors run their final stocks, things will pop up so don’t give up, keep calling. 

This year’s crop will settle in near 2.45 billion pounds. It has been fives years since we have seen lower crop production.  It will be short lived as the crop will bounce back this year, even if not at the level once expected. 

Upcoming Industry Milestones:

• Position Report:  August 9,, 2024

Bullish Trends:

• The market has reacted to the Objective Estimate of 2.8 billion pounds as we have seen the market rise 10% in just the last two weeks for new crop. This may continue as demand may exceed supply for the immediate future. 
• With over 271 million pounds already in the books for new crop, this is more than double that of last year’s new crop sales for the same time period.  
• The current crop is virtually sold out.  A carry-out of less than 450 million pounds is a very real possibility.

Bearish Trends:

• I’m struggling here for bearish trends, but bear with me…Let’s not expect prices to just rise overnight without transactions to establish these levels.
• With little supply remaining to bridge the gap before new crop, August and September shipments may be weak, putting the industry behind in position for the new crop year.
• Higher prices may lead to lost consumption as retailers will raise prices at the shelf, regardless of never having lowered prices when the almond market went down.