Market Update

The Almond Board of California released the "June Position Report" on Thursday, July 11^th. This is the eleventh report for the 2023 crop year. Key highlights are below:

 

Receipts

Receipts in June were 6.10 million lbs., up 156% from last June’s receipts of 2.40 million lbs. With one month left, receipts should finalize just below 2.45 billion lbs. 

 

Shipments

Total shipments FTM were 206.16 million lbs., coming in below industry expectations of 220 million lbs. Although below industry expectations, this shipment number is up 10.48% vs. last June. If the industry can match last July’s shipments of 186.67 million lbs., then we will see a sub 450 million lbs. carry out. Given that total shipments are up 5.66% YTD, this should be achievable. 

 

Domestic shipments were 62.02 million lbs., up 1.93 vs last year’s 60.85 million lbs. Domestic shipments have come back to earth after a strong April & May. Domestic shipments still have an opportunity to finish the crop year up YTD for the first time since the 20/21 crop. Domestic shipments are currently up 2.29% YTD.

 

Export shipments were 144.14 million lbs., which is 14.62% up vs last year’s 125.76 million lbs. Export shipments continued to outperform last year, up 6.95% YTD. All major destination markets, besides Western Europe, were up for the month. All major regions are up YTD, with India and the ME being the strongest both for the month of June and YTD.

 

Sales & Commitments: Total sales FTM were 92.37 million lbs., down 40% vs last year’s sales of 154.69 million lbs. The decrease in sales from last year is not a huge surprise as the inventory for the most sought-after grades has been depleted for several months. However, new crop sales were robust for the second month in a row at 98.16 million lbs. Total new crop commitments now stand at 271.28 million lbs. up 121.66% vs last year’s 122.39 million lbs. This brings the total sales number for the month to 190.53 million lbs. 

 

Commitments for the 23 crop year stand at 347.02 million lbs., which is down 23% vs the 451.04 million lbs. from last year. Commitments continue to dwindle as the 23 crop year nears its end. However, total commitments of 23 and 24 crop years stand at 618.30 million lbs. which is up 7.82% vs last year’s 573.43 million lbs. 

Uncommitted inventory currently sits at 337.52 million lbs., down 35.72% vs last year’s 525.05 million lbs. Available inventory is even lower than this number suggests due to an additional ~54 million lbs. of loss and exempt that will be added at the end of the crop year. (Current Reject % currently sits at 4.23% vs the budgeted 2.00%). In addition, a large amount of this uncommitted inventory is likely to be low-grade products and not standard USDA grade almonds. 

 

In a Nutshell: 

Overall, the June Position Report is likely to add steam to yesterday’s bullish Objective Estimate of 2.8 billion lbs. Using this estimate and the projected carry out of sub 450 million lbs., the total supply for the upcoming crop year could be relatively flat compared to this year, bringing needed balance to the almond industry.

Depending on how July shipments shake out in our Final Position Report of the 2023 crop year, we will know exactly what the final carry-out is. All eyes will now turn to the weather and harvest conditions in CA for the upcoming 2024 crop harvest, which will begin in a few short weeks.