The Almond Board of California released the January Position Report on Wednesday, February 12th. This is the 6th report for the 2024 crop year. Key highlights are below: 

Receipts

Receipts in January were 88.38 million lbs., down 45.8% from last January’s receipts of 163.10 million lbs. This brings total receipts for the crop year to 2.664 billion lbs., up 11.4% vs last year’s 2.391 billion lbs. This receipt number continues to show the drop off the industry had expected. With receipts quickly plummeting, we now have a clearer picture of a final crop size that will likely be between 2.7 and 2.75 billion lbs. Using the previous 4-year average of receipts would indicate a 2.745 billion lbs. final crop size. However, with receipts dropping off fast we could see the 24 crop finalize closer to 2.7 billion lbs.    

Shipments

Total shipments FTM were 228.64 million lbs., coming in above industry expectations of 210 million lbs. This shipment number is down 3.1% vs. last January’s 235.92 million lbs. While this number was slightly less than last year’s record shipment number, it still came in much stronger than expectations. Markets continue to need to shipments in order to keep supply chains full. Shipments have continued to remain steady during the first half of the 24 crop year. 

Domestic shipments were 61.65 million lbs., down 2.0% vs last year’s 62.89 million lbs. Domestic shipments continue to hold near the 60 million lbs. per month level. We expect this market to remain consistent for the remainder of the crop year. YTD crop year shipments for the domestic market are tracking close to last year and are currently down 1.02%.   

Export shipments were 166.99 million lbs., which is 3.5% down vs last year’s 173.03 million lbs. Export shipments were a mixed bag by region. Japan and South Korea both had strong months, with both being up double digit percentages. The India market, while slightly down FTM is continuing to pick up traction for their YTD shipments. With the India market now buying to replenish local stock this trend will continue. Western Europe has largely tried to postpone further buying while hoping for a downward price movement, they have been able to do this through use of European almond crops. They will not be able to stick to this strategy for much longer however now that these local crops are running out in combination with lower YTD shipments from the US. The ME Markets remain up overall YTD but we are seeing drastic differences in the main re export markets in this region. Turkey continues to remain up 55% YTD while the UAE is flat.  

Sales & Commitments: Total sales FTM were 238.99 million lbs., up 1.3% vs. last year’s sales of 235.91 million lbs. Sales, just like shipments, are continuing at a steady pace. This sales number also came in over industry expectation after a slow start to the month post the holiday period.  With consistent sales we are seeing both the supply and demand side needing to continue to buy to keep supply chains and shipment schedules full. These sales continue to happen at the higher pricing we’ve seen over the last 6 months post the July Objective Estimate. This shows that so far demand has not been affected by the higher pricing. 

Commitments for the 2024 crop year stand at 571.55 million lbs., which is down 10.33% vs the 637.42 million lbs. from last year. Total commitments are now only for roughly 2.5 months’ worth of shipments. With buyers covered so little and global destination stocks minimal this ensures continued buying from the CA origin. On the other end of this CA will also likely not look to take time off selling and ensure consistent shipments and cash flow coming in for the second half of the crop year. 

Uncommitted 2024 crop inventory sits at 1.169 billion lbs., up 3.8% vs last year’s 1.126 billion lbs. With receipts now slowing, uncommitted inventory is now near parity with last year in which we saw inventory quickly dry up from spot purchases at the tail end of the crop year. 

In a Nutshell: 

The January Position Report was a report that beat industry expectations resulting in a bullish report. Shipments, sales, and receipts all came on the better sides of expectations. With shipments and sales steady, and receipts now all but finalized we expect the overall pricing for almonds to remain relatively steady from a fundamental aspect.

While this January Position Report was a good one for the industry, it is already being quickly being overshadowed by bloom news. While bloom started emerging last week in scattered pockets it has been slow progressing throughout the state with cool weather and rain in the forecast over the last week. Due to this bloom likely will not move into full swing until next week. There remains scattered showers in the forecast during the bloom period as well. However, the biggest bloom concern at this point for farmers is bee hive health. We have seen issues on both hive availability as well as hive strength. While we likely will not see the results on these issues for month to come it has affected crop potential sentiment already.

Overall, this report brought a sense of stability after seeing prices drop over the last month due to demand concerns. This report will likely once again give support to the pricing CA has been offering at. While a strong report overall it will still quickly be overshadowed by the bloom news coming into the market for the next 3 weeks.   

Link to Position Report