The Almond Board of California released the November Position Report on Tuesday, December 17th. This is the 4th report for the 2024 crop year. Key highlights are below: 

Receipts

Receipts in November were 496.89 million lbs., down 6.8% from last November’s receipts of 532.91 million lbs. This brings total receipts for the crop year to 2.342 billion lbs. up 25.4% vs last year’s 1.867 billion lbs. This receipt number was less than CA was expecting for this period. Overall industry sentiments were that the crop would be 90% received after this report. This would put the final crop at 2.60 billion lbs., with a 85% received number this would put the crop at 2.76 billion lbs. We still expect the crop to come in at the higher end of this range but this receipt number largely rules out a crop over 2.8 billion lbs. 

Shipments

Total shipments FTM were 271.38 million lbs., coming in above industry expectations of 230 million lbs. This shipment number is up 13.9% vs. last November’s 238.28 million lbs. Not only did this shipment number beat expectations but it also set a new record for November, beating the 2020 crop’s 263 million lbs. This was a strong shipment number and shipments continue to pick up steam after a slow start in August due to the low carryover. YTD shipments are now near flat to the 23 crop’s shipments for the same period.  

Domestic shipments were 54.44 million lbs., down 9.8% vs last year’s 60.37 million lbs. Domestic shipments were the outlier of an otherwise bullish report. We have now seen domestic shipments move up and down 10 million lbs. from month to month. While this was a poor month for domestic, YTD shipments are only down .75% for the year. Domestic will once again look to bounce back with a stronger month in December. 

Export shipments were 216.95 million lbs., which is 21.9% up vs last year’s 177.91 million lbs. Export shipments were strong, predominantly in Europe which saw its strongest month ever in total shipments. This strong month for Europe was expected as they were down heavily to start the crop year due to a lack of carryover of European grades. While this was a strong shipment month for the region, Europe is still down 3% on the year and will continue to buy and receive almonds in the upcoming months. The ME region also had a strong month, driven largely off Turkey shipments. China continues to be down on shipments as this region looks for non-tariff affected almonds from other origins. The India market has continued to be focused on consuming their local stock and have now seen 3 months of depressed shipments leading them to be down 23% YoY. This will likely force the India region to buy and replenish their stocks soon.  

Sales & Commitments:

Total sales FTM were 209.46 million lbs., slightly up .6% vs. last year’s sales of 208.22 million lbs. Both domestic and export sales largely matched last year’s numbers. This number overall was smaller than some of the previous months of the crop year due to the Thanksgiving holiday making November a short month, however we are still seeing business concluded at higher price levels

Commitments for the 2024 crop year stand at 611.77 million lbs., which is down 5.5% vs the 647.42 million lbs. from last year. Total commitments remain near last year’s levels, we still do not expect commitments to rise out of this range in the near term due to CA’s unwillingness to sell anything out past the next 3 months. This commitment number could push lower next month due to a combo of slow sales during the US holiday period and CA’s lack of interest for post bloom sales.  

Uncommitted 2024 crop inventory sits at 1.275 billion lbs., up 19.4% vs last year’s 1.067 billion lbs. This number will stabilize next month and start to move downwards as new crop receipts are finalizing quickly. 

In a Nutshell: 

The November Position Report was stronger than expected due predominantly to shipments and receipts. Shipments set a record for November and brought YTD shipments roughly in line with last year. Receipts slowed down quicker than most expected. While we will not have a good idea on the final crop size till next month, this receipt number largely rules out a larger than expected 2024 crop.   

Export shipments to Europe bounced back in a big way on the November report, ensuring that this market will have almonds refilling their local supplies. While it was great month for this region, there is still room for additional shipments. India will also find itself in a similar position to Europe in the upcoming months, where it will need a huge shipment month to refill their supplies.  

Overall, this report will likely provide even further support to CA almond pricing. With a new norm in pricing now firmly established, we have continued to see both strong sales and shipments into almost all regions. With strong demand still being observed, we expect pricing to stay here for the near term. A final crop size still needs to be seen next month and we will likely not see any big swings in pricing until post February bloom.