August temperatures have returned to more of a norm for this time of year, and the extended forecast also keeps them in the average range. With harvest now in full swing, temperatures will help control moisture for the almonds both on the trees and on the ground prior to sweeping. Initial loads have shown some degree of low moisture and smaller sizing, especially compared to last year; however, this is typical for early loads, and as harvest progresses, this should improve. Early indicators should not be too influential, as only some data points can be drawn from them. We will see much more usable information in the weeks ahead.

The final shipment report, released almost two weeks ago, identified total crop receipts of 2.446 billion pounds. This represents a decrease of nearly -5% from the previous crop year’s production of 2.571 billion pounds. With a carry-out last year of 800 million pounds, the industry was able to ship 2.692 billion pounds, up +5% over last year. This should establish a carry-out this year of approximately 451 million pounds once the additional loss and exempt is accounted for. This will be the smallest carry-out the industry has seen since 2020 and exemplifies an ideal carry-out level. However, in this case, the quality of the material left in the carry-out is not ideal, and finding product to ship over the next month that is not already purchased will be challenging.

Focusing now on the new crop for 2024/2025, the Objective Estimate is reported to be 2.8 billion pounds. Previous expectations had estimated the crop to be larger, in the range of 2.9 to 3.1 billion pounds. A 2.91 billion-pound crop is actually within the margin of error, as is a smaller crop of 2.68 billion pounds. The industry is currently marketing the 24/25 crop as a 2.8 billion-pound crop until further information is available.

The industry is off to a strong start, with over 379 million pounds of new crop already on the books, up 85% from last year when only 205 million pounds had been sold.

With strong shipments this season and a smaller carry-out, we have seen market firmness over the last six weeks. While current levels are higher than they have been in some time, almonds still represent a great value compared to other tree nuts. Expectations are for this firmness to last through the fourth quarter of 2024. Depending on how the crop turns out, the market may shift accordingly. Buying opportunities may arise in the fourth quarter if shipments do not meet expectations or if the crop turns out to be stronger than estimated. Conversely, if shipments remain strong and the crop appears to be on track with the estimate or smaller, expect to see higher prices leading into the February bloom.

Upcoming Industry Milestones:

• Position Report:  September 12, 2024

Bullish Trends:

• Early new crop sales and commitments have given growers confidence going into harvest, enough to now sell in smaller steps.  
• The industry had the second strongest shipments in history with 2.692 billion pounds shipped and will now take that momentum into the new crop year.  
• The current crop is virtually sold out. A carry-out of less than 451 million pounds will make for a very tight transition. 

Bearish Trends:

• Higher pricing levels have been established without many transactions taking place. Many are not ready to jump on board and will sit on the sidelines waiting. 
• With little supply remaining to fill the gap before new crop, August and September shipments may be weak, putting the industry behind in position for the new crop year. 
• Export shipments are becoming delayed due to equipment shortages, which may lead to even more difficulties in the weeks ahead.